vahest teeks neilegi midagi eeleel ja järeljärel kuni varsti saab 25h ööpäevas ainult treidida:)
aga nok on huvitav küll
Järelturg - lõõgastus:)
Eelturg so. eelmäng, :)
Järelturg?
-Nokia (NOK) suutis lisaks kehvale käibele üllatada turge negatiivselt ka teise kvartali prognoosidega. Kasumimarginaal mobiilide tootmisest on endiselt tugev, lühiajaliselt võib aktsia siiski veel odavneda, kuid tugev bilansileht (12 miljardit vaba raha, tugev rahavoog, võla puudumine) ei anna enam palju võimalusi allapoole liikumiseks. Eelturul Nokia 7% miinuses.
-Märtsis kerkis ehituslubade taotluste arv oodatust rohkem, aasta baasile viiduna kerkis märtsis uusehitiste arv veebruariga võrreldes 6.4% 2.007 miljonile ühikule. Ootused olid 1.9 miljoni juures. Esimese kvartalis kasvas tööstustoodang 6.6%, mis on nelja aasta parim näitaja. Negatiivse uudisena oli oodatust nõrgem masinate kasutuaste ning märtsis tööstustoodangu mahu kasv oli 0.2% miinuspoolel.
-Aktsiaturud vaatamata Nokia kehvadele ootustele vaid kergelt miinuses. Oodatust kehvemad tulemused olid ka Sun Microsystemsil ja IBM-l, mis päeva edenedes võivad turule negatiivselt mõjuda.
Seekord Cody Willard`i päeva sissejuhatus:
Rev Shark has been calling this the "Bizarro market," where good news is bad and bad news is good. And the bad news for market participants has been that the news flow -- up until yesterday -- has been mostly good. Confused? So is the Street.
Do we want a booming economy? Do we want earnings growth? Do we want business trends to improve? Apparently, not right now. The market is trying to figure out what's discounted (or priced in) at the current quotes.
I've long argued that the market isn't a very good discounting mechanism because it gets so much wrong so often. JDS Uniphase (JDSU:Nasdaq) at $150 was supposedly discounting something, but I have no idea what.
The good thing about that discounting disconnect is that investors and traders can look at the current quotes and try to determine how realistic the discount is. In 2000, JDS Uniphase at $150 was discounting a future of long-term high growth from already bubbled levels. In 2004, JDS Uniphase at $4 is discounting a future of low growth from already depressed levels. The stock was a sell in 2000 because there was no future long-term high growth from the bubbled levels. The stock may now be a buy at $4 because the company won't have low growth from already depressed levels. Rather, it's about to see a surge in demand over the next few years.
Ask that question about each of your stocks. Does the current quote indicate that the market expects Nvidia (NVDA:Nasdaq) to grow quickly or very little from here? Certainly after the run that most stocks have had over the past 18 months, the market has discounted a lot more growth now than it did in October 2002.
The bears will argue that it's already overdone. (A lot would even argue that the October 2002 low was nothing, and that stocks will be much lower than they were then.) The bulls will argue that the market hasn't yet discounted how strong the future will be (at least nobody's arguing for Dow 36,000 anymore).
I think, in general, there's more growth ahead than the market is discounting. But more specifically, I think there's a big disconnect between some telecom names, like JDS Uniphase at the current quote, and their growth prospects.
In the more immediate -- trading -- sense, the market has apparently more than discounted the current quarter's results at most companies. With a few exceptions, like Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) and Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq), which had extremely strong reports, stocks have been selling off on anything in line or just plain ol' good, which just isn't good enough for the near term. That said, we've now had a lot of ancillary selloffs in names that haven't yet reported. At some point, the in-line and/or good reports do get discounted, and it will become easier for stocks to pop after their reports.
Nokia (NOK:NYSE) disappoints once again today, this time with its revenue guidance. Even so, the futures are acting better this morning than they were last night off the ho-hum reports from IBM (IBM:NYSE), Sun (SUNW:Nasdaq) and others.
How about Ipix (IPIX:Nasdaq) sneaking out its earnings report last night at 5:52 p.m. ET? Did they think the Street would just miss it if they issued it late enough? These security plays really do scream "bubble" -- at least in security plays, as I've been saying.
Let's get ready to rumble. We've got another day of fighting ahead of us.
Gary B. Smith:
Pooljuhid veavad turgu allapoole, pangandus ülespoole.