nagu hommikul välja tõin, võib foreclosure'te teema areneda ettearvamatus suunas ning hetkel osatakse välja käia vaid stsenaariumeid. Siin on Citi kommentaar (Adam Levitin):
Three Potential Outcomes — Levitin articulated three possible outcomes to the aforementioned issues and assigned an equal likelihood to each. In his best case scenario, these issues are deemed merely technical in nature and are successfully resolved but it takes at least year to do so and all foreclosures are delayed by at least a year. Levitin disputed the claim by banks that these issues can be resolved in a month or so and attributed the banks’ claims to “legal posturing.” In the medium case scenario, litigation ensues and it takes years to sort out these matters. In the worst case scenario, the aforementioned issues become a “systemic problem” which causes the mortgage market to grind to a halt as title insurers refuse to insure mortgages involving existing homes.
What Happens Next?
Our speaker predicted that more and more lenders are likely to stop their foreclosure processes in both judicial and non-judicial states. He also expects more states’ attorney generals to get involved. At the federal level, it is possible than banking regulators might step in as there is legal and reputational risk for the banks involved.
Ultimately, if these issues do in fact escalate, the Administration may try to broker some sort of settlement. If such deal brokering does take place, Levitin believes that “some payment” will be exacted from the lenders and servicers. The Administration could bargain for more mortgage principal write downs.
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MAT -8.1%, GE -2.0%, CGC -1.9%, CBST -1.4%, INFY -1.4%, JBHT -0.5%.
M&A news: POT -0.5% (under pressure in early trade following reports that Sinochem has dropped its plan to bid for the company).
Select metals/mining related stocks trading lower: GSS -1.9%, NG -1.6%, SLW -1.1%, SLT -1.1%, SSRI -1.0%, HL -0.9%, ABX -0.6%, GG -0.6%, NEM -0.5%.
Other news: ANDS -12.0% (to sell shares of its common stock in underwritten public offering; downgraded to Hold at ThinkEquity), JCP -1.7% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), QLGC -1.2% (early weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), .
Analyst comments: LULU -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc), URBN -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc), LFT -0.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham).
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GOOG +9.1%, FHN +5.4% (light volume), AMD +3.2%.
M&A news: STX +19.8% (announces preliminary interest regarding a going private transaction), HWK +1.3% (Carlisle Cos to acquire Hawk Corporation in an all-cash accretive transaction for $50/share).
Select financial related names trading modestly higher: NBG +2.7% (trading ex dividend), RBS +2.4%, BCS +2.2%, LYG +1.3%, DB +0.9%, STD +0.8%.
Select mortgage insurers seeing continued strength: PMI +2.4%, RDN +2.1%.
Select STX computer storage device peers are trading higher: WDC +8.5%, HTCH +3.7%, XRTX +3.7%, STEC +1.7%, NTAP +1.5%, SNDK +0.3%, .
Other news: DSCO +18.4% (announces completion of Phase 2a Study of Aerosolized KL4 surfactant in cystic fibrosis), ATEC +16.3% (light volume, still checking), MIPI +15.6% (thinly traded; presents positive data from clinical studies comparing Trofex and ProstaScint for detection of metastatic prostate cancer), TGB +8.7% (rebounding from yesterday's intraday drop; announced last night that they are unaware of any information that would cause the price of the its stock to change materially), GPOR +5.3% (will replace American Physicians Capital in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), YGE +3.3% (announces new 700 MW capacity expansion projects ), BIDU +3.2% (up in sympathy with GOOG), MNKD +3.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), PPC +2.7% (still checking), YHOO +2.4% (continued strength; also boosted by GOOG results), QTM +1.5% (continued strength from yesterday's 10% pop), SNY +1.0% (Teriflunomide successfully reduces relapses and is well tolerated in multiple sclerosis patients; Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TXN +0.7% (announced its first wafer fabrication facility in China), .
Analyst comments: INFN +6.8% (added to Top Picks Live list at Citigroup), WFMI +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), SMSI +2.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan ), BBVA +1.5% (initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie), CRM +0.9% (initiated with Outperform at BMO Capital).
S&P 500 ja Dow futuurid indikeerimas avanemist 0,2% kõrgemal, Nasdaq aga 0,6% plusspoolel.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0,76%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,41%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0,07%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,22%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,25%
Venemaa MICEX +0,57%
Poola WIG -0,06%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,87%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,40%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3,19%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,91%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,99%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -0,21%
Tai Set 50 +0,48%
India Sensex 30 -1,82%
Rev Shark: Good GOOG Gooses the Bulls
10/15/2010 7:18 AM
Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce.
-- President James A. Garfield
A strong earnings report from Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now) and a potential takeover of Seagate (STX - commentary - Trade Now) has futures up this morning, but the mood has cooled a little bit. The market's initial response to GOOG last night was quite euphoric, but GOOG has a history of marching to its own drummer and doesn't generally tend to generate much sympathetic reaction in the broader market.
We continue to be primarily focused on quantitative easing and the dollar. Fed chief Ben Bernanke is speaking in Boston this morning, and there is a little nervousness that we may have already priced in the impact of further quantitative easing. The market wants reassurance that Ben and his crew are going to go big and fast on "QE 2." Any hesitation or hedging about it is going to make this market nervous. No earnings report or economic news is as important as continued reassurance that QE is coming soon.
Obviously the Google report is a positive and should help Internet-related names, but GE (GE - commentary - Trade Now) is a bit of a disappointment this morning, which is weighing on financials. Financials have been the soft spot in this market lately due to the continuing angst over the mortgage foreclosure problems, but hope for QE 2 has been powerful enough to keep the problems with the bank action contained.
We had some softness in the action yesterday, but after the run we have had recently, it amounted to little more than some healthy consolidation. The uptrend is still well intact and we have plenty of downside support in place to provide a cushion. The bears will have to be quite aggressive to do some damage to this market, and lately they have had no conviction at all.
It is a bit worrisome that so many market players are so confident that QE 2 is going to keep us driving us higher and higher, but anyone trying to fight the Fed lately has been steamrolled. There is no shortage of critics of further quantitative easing, but the market right now is embracing the very simple logic that if the Fed pumps more cash into the economy, it is going to be used to buy stocks.
At some point QE 2 will be priced into the market and the action will become more unstable. If we stay focused on the action in the dollar, we will likely have some advance warning. When the dollar starts to rally, it is a sign that that the world is starting to think that QE 2 has been adequately discounted by the market.
As long as QE 2 is hanging out there, it is going to be very difficult to be aggressive with shorts for very long. It is going to be trotted out as defense against any pullback. In addition, the dip-buyers continue to enjoy great success and there is no reason for them not to stop doing their thing. Buying weakness has consistently worked for about six weeks now, and market players will always stick with what has worked recently.
We have a positive open on the way and CPI, retail sales and sentiment reports on the way. The bulls are riding the trend, and GOOG and QE 2 are keeping it going. Until some cracks develop, there is little reason to fight the upbeat action.
Apple on täna moodustamas taaskord uusi tippe. Paistab, et vägisi tahetakse $310 piiri ületada. All on kuvatud viimase 2 päeva päevasisene aktsiagraafik.
Apple on täna moodustamas taaskord uusi tippe. Paistab, et vägisi tahetakse $310 piiri ületada. All on kuvatud viimase 2 kauplemissessiooni päevasisene aktsiagraafik.
Bloombergis tehakse juttu Hiina jüaanist, mis jätkab OSK Investment Bank hinnangul kallinemist järk-järgult. Teatavasti levib turgudel spekulatsioon, et Hiina on taaskord tõstmas pankade reservi määrasid, mis on ajalooliselt vaadatuna tähendanud dollari kallinemist jüaani suhtes. Alloleval graafikul on kujutatud pankade reservi määrad ning dollari/jüaani valuutavahetuslepingud. Bloombergi 24 majandusteadlase sõnul kallineb jüaan dollari suhtes käesoleva aasta lõpuks praeguselt tasemelt 0.3%. Analüütikud prognoosivad, et reservi määrasid tõstab Hiina valitsus 0.5 protsendipunkti.
Väga huvitav....
http://www.mrc.org/bmi/articles/2010/Santellis_Simple_Answer_to_Deficit_Stop_Spending_Stop_Spending_Stop_Spending.html