Börsipäev 15. detsember

Investeerimine
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Juba mõnda aega oleme Via Baltica foorumisse igal hommikul püüdnud välja tuua olulisemad uudised Baltikumist. Et need pisut lihtsamini leitavad oleks, paneme nüüdsest samad uudised ka börsipäeva foorumisse.

December 15, 2006

53.7% of Mazeikiu sold to PKN. Yesterday, the largest ever block trade was done on Vilnius Stock Exchange as PKN bought a total of 380m shares from Yukos at LTL 10.22 (represents 53.7% of Mazeikiu Nafta). The total value of the transaction amounted to LTL 3.88b (EUR 1.12b). Today, PKN could buy another 217m shares from Lithuanian government. Smaller shareholders can expect a tender offer for all the remaining shares (most probably at LTL 10.22, which is 3.8% higher than yesterdays close). PKN has not specified the time when they plan to go through with the offer.

Port of Tallinn to invest record amounts in port development in 2007. According to Äripäev, the state owned Port of Tallinn plans to invest EEK 1.5 billion (EUR 96m) in 2007, which is the highest-ever annual investment amount. This should be very good news for Eesti Ehitus, which has historically performed several large-scale hydro technical construction works in the port.

More on Mazeikiu & PKN. After the deal between PKN and Lithuanian government is closed, the future prospects of the refinery will be discussed, BBN wrote. “They talk about interconnecting oil pipelines and possibilities to import oil from the Caspian Sea,” said Mr. Kirkilas in his radio interview. Also, on Dec 25, Moscow Court of Arbitration will rule if Polish PKN Orlen can be included into the list of Yukos creditors (Poles want to recover more than USD 100m).

No ease on Latvian-Russian border. The Latvian business daily Dienas Bizness reports that truck queues on Latvian-Russian border have gotten even worse. In the beginning of the week, there were more than 1000 trucks waiting at Terehova border crossing point, making up a 35 km queue. Of our interest is how those lines affect exports to Russia (i.e. Lithuanian dairies Pieno Zvaigzdes and Rokiskio Suris). When we met Norma last week, they also pointed out long queues at border crossings as a negative factor affecting Q4 sales

Latvian unemployment unchanged. According to Latvian State Employment Agency, unemployment rate in Latvia was 6.6% in November, unchanged from October 2006.

Sales up by fifth. According to Statistics Estonia, the net sales of enterprises in Q3/06 were up 21% yoy. The sales of trade enterprises contributed 41% to the total net sales (manufacturing 20%; transport, storage and communication 13%; construction 11%; real estate, renting and business activities 6%). Compared to Q3/05, sales increased in all activities. Personnel expenses per person employed increased 21% yoy.

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Black & Decker (BDK) tõmbab alla neljanda kvartali ja kogu aasta prognoose märgatavalt. Põhjuseks just nõrk tarbija ja kehvad jaemüügitrendid.Selle uudise peale kindlasti esmased liikujad SNA, SWK ja DHR. Kinnisvaraturu pikk käsi hakkab aina rohkem erinevaid sektoreid mõjutama.Kommentaar:

BDK Black & Decker issues downside guidance for Q4 (Dec), sees EPS of $1.30-1.35 vs. $1.85 Reuters Estimates consensus. Co sees Q4 sales to decline 8%, cites weak conditions in the U.S.. CEO states, "The demand environment has weakened compared to recent quarters. In addition, orders from key retailers have decreased much more sharply than sell-through. Therefore, our U.S. sales have been significantly lower than we anticipated.... Looking ahead, we expect the housing market and weaker demand for discretionary goods will put pressure on our sales into 2007. While we do not expect that retailers will continue reducing inventory as they have this quarter, they will likely remain cautious. Considering this environment, ongoing commodity cost pressure and the strong results we posted in early 2006, we face significant challenges in the first half of 2007. We will provide detailed guidance for 2007 when we announce our fourth-quarter results in January".

BofA initiates Arch Coal (ACI 33.78) with a Buy and $45 tgt, saying they favor ACI for its operations in the western U.S. and believe the co's leverage to the Powder River Basin will benefit it in the near term and longer term

BofA initiates Massey Energy (MEE 25.85) with a Neutral and $29 tgt, saying they expect the next 12 months to be operationally difficult, as rising costs in CAPP have pressured margins and remain concerned that production isn't being curtailed fast enough in Appalachia and that pricing pressures could remain, particularly if winter weather continues to be mild

BofA initiates CONSOL Energy (CNX 35.91) with a Neutral and $40 tgt, as they expect cost pressures and a lack of production discipline by Eastern producers will continue to make Eastern coal a tougher play than West

Oppenheimer initiates Tiffany (TIF 39.28) with a Neutral, based on continued pressure on gross margins that will likely limit EBIT margin expansion in FY07, difficult comparisons in key growth areas and Japan still represents a challenge

Wachovia initiates W.W. Grainger (GWW 72.45) with a Market Perform, based on an expected softening of the U.S. economy and their belief that the co's accelerating 2007 revenue target could be too aggressive.

Wachovia initiates Wesco International (WCC 63.63) with an Outperform, saying they co has undergone a dramatic shift in capital structure and financial turnaround which positions it better financially than in the last downturn and think they are now in a "sweet spot" with respect to its exposure to later-cycle end markets

Wachovia initiates MSC Industrial Direct (MSM 39.04) with a Market Perform, as they expect the pace of revenue growth to moderate and believe that shares could reflect investor concerns about a softening U.S macroeconomic environment...

Prudential raises their ExxonMobil (XOM 78.73) tgt to $85 from $78, to reflect what they believe will be an expanding competitive advantage with the Integrated Oil sector

First Albany initiates Netflix (NFLX 27.76) with a Neutral

Deutshce Bank upgrades Ciena (CIEN 27.83) to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $36 from $22.50, as the co reported Q406 earnings and offered guidance above firm expectations, its deal exposure helps insulate against North American carrier consolidation and the pipeline appears solid

First Albany downgrades Oracle (ORCL 18.02) to Neutral from Buy saying growth likely to slow

Bear Stearns upgrades Lowe's (LOW 31.46) to Outperform from Peer Perform

Citigroup downgrades EnCana (ECA 52.35) to Sell from Buy

ThinkEquity raises their tgt on FFIV to $90 from $75 saying they believe that F5 has the most near-term upside potential. The firm believes that there is little threat to F5's dominant market position for application switching in the near term, as F5 has a solid offer and the most-focused distribution

Jefferies initiates Phase Forward (PFWD 14.64) with a Buy and $18 tgt, as they believe the co's leadership position should continue to gain strength as barriers to adoption continue to diminish while its full suite of automation and safety products, coupled with financial health, provides it with a competitive advantage over many of its smaller peers.

Jefferies thinks that recent further leveraging of HD's balance sheet, latest dividend hike, expanded share buyback and entry into China could converge to propel share price higher, thereby potentially both defusing HD's appeal as an LBO target and muting criticism of stock performance. The firm is skeptical on a potential LBO due to: a) the huge value of its equity (roughly $83 bln), b) the recent leveraging up of the balance sheet with $5 bln of additional long term debt elevating total LTD to close to $12 bln vs. $28 bln of equity and c) the fact that HD is already generating an impressive 23-24% ROIC. The firm says a higher stock price and an increased debt/equity ratio both make the co a less appealing LBO candidate.

MON Monsanto upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

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ADBE kvartalitulemuste kommentaarid:

Oppenheimer notes ADBE reported solid Q4 results with strength in Macromedia products, Acrobat. Firm says there was less drop-off in CS2 sales, then anticipated (at this point in the product cycle). Firm leaves their forward-looking ests unchanged. Firm says ADBE benefited from demand strength across products and geographies. In particular, Acrobat desktop sales showed strength post-launch (showing stronger growth that Acrobat 7 at this point in the cycle); Macromedia products, particularly FlashLite, has now been shipped on over 150 mln devices worldwide. Firm reiterates that even though the stock, in the past, tended to trade at higher P/E multiples into a product cycle/at peak, underlying earnings growth at ADBE has slowed--yielding a "peak multiple" closer to the levels where ADBE is trading currently... Jefferies continues to think consensus ests for FY07 will move higher, that organic earnings growth will be among the best in large cap software and that visibility to earnings is high headed into the product cycle. Firm raised their tgt to $50 from $45... Prudential continues to believe that ADBE can move to 30X their FY08 non-option expense EPS estimate of $1.89 within a year, or $57, for a 32% upside from last night's after-hours trading level of $43.30. The guidance for F1Q and FY07 was just as they had expected, and they are not changing any of their numbers significantly at this time.

Kommentaar SNDK litsentsikäibele, mis võib aktsiale negatiivselt mõjuda:

UBS says their checks suggest SEC is currently undergoing M.L.C. licensing renewal negotiations with SNDK. Although the current contract does not expire until 2H09, the firm believes the SEC is attempting to procure lower, long term rates for future payments. They view the potential for lower M.L.C. I.P. rates as a negative for SNDK. The firm also says their checks suggest wireless I.C. demand in Oct and Nov was concentrated in lower- and higher-end handsets, with the mid-tier underperforming. They say anecdotal evidence of slowing at some major handset OEMs moving into Dec also makes them incrementally more cautious on wireless suppliers BRCM, CY, MRVL, MU, SNDK & SPSN.

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Core CPI y/y +2.6% vs +2.7% consensus
CPI m/m +0.0% vs +0.2% consensus
Core CPI m/m +0.0% vs +0.2% consensus
Futuurid selle peale esialgu plussi
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Eileõhtusest Sharki kommentaarist tahaks siia paar lõiku tuua - Shark leiab, et pikemaajalist tugevust võiks ehk leida naftasektorist ning et mujalt on raske häid sisenemiskohti leida. Eilset tugevust võib osalt ka ka tänase optsioonireede 'süüks' pidada, seda enam, et osa turuosalisi oli juba kannatamatult ootamas langust ning selline tõus tabas neid suure üllatusena.

I've added a few new buys, but outside of oils I'm having a very difficult time finding much that I think is worthy of building up for a longer-term hold. In fact, when I look at groups like semiconductors that are bouncing strongly today, I'm more inclined to sell than to look for further strength.

Some are attributing the strength today to option expiration tomorrow. Maybe so, but mostly it looks to me like the recent action caught some folks flatfooted, and they are scrambling to reposition. I'm doubtful the bulls have the juice to keep this going but I'm not going to be aggressive on the short side until they falter a bit.
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Varajased indeksite futuurid on rohelised, nädalavahetuse eelsed meeleolud on positiivsed. Täna on tehnikute lemmik Stockcharts.com terve päev maas olnud ning pöörduda tuleb alternatiivsete töövahendite poole. Vaatasin, mida on teinud volatiislusindeks VIX. Üllatus, hirm on turgudelt kadunud ning indeks on kukkunud eile päeva sees koguni alla novembrilõpu põhja. Sentiment ja meeleolu on ka indeksites kirjas, sest neljapäeval murdis DJIA taas üle kõigi aegade kõrgeima taseme.

Murdmine ülespoole vastupanutaset on täiesti aktsepteeritav. Kauplemisvahemik oli kokku kuivanud ning ühele või teisele poole välja murdmine üsna ilmne. Lühemalt graafikult on näha, et MACD on teinud positiivse crossoveri, mis on heaks signaaliks. Ka OBV näitab, et tõusupäevade käive on olnud suurem kui languspäevade oma. Et külglibisemine ka tehnilises mõttes lõppeks, võiks ADX tagasi ülespoole pöörduda. +DI on juba positiivse poolepeal.

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Tulemusi avaldavad ettevõtted järgmisel nädalal:

Companies reporting earnings the week of Dec 18th-22th include: Monday: JOYG, SCS, APSG, FCEL, HOV, and ORCL... Tuesday: CC, FDS, MCS, MS, SCHL, CHAP, CBK, CTAS, DRI, FSII, PALM, and SMOD... Wednesday: AIR, ATU, BMET, KMX, FDO, COMS, ACN, APOG, BBBY, COGN, FINL, MLHR, NKE, and PAYX... Thursday: AGE, AM, CCL, CMC, CAG, GIS, NOBH, RAD, SMSC, WOR, EGLS, RHT, RIMM, RECN, SHFL, SLR, and TIBX... Friday: No companies are scheduled to report.

Mainekamad neist Oracle(ORCL), Circut City(CC), Palm Inc(PALM), Nike(NKE), Carnival(CCL), Rimm(RIMM). Nike'i viimase aja tõusu arvestades ei jäta tulemused vigadeks kuigi palju ruumi, seda enam, et paljude analüütikute hinnasihid on täitumas. Mis Carnivalisse puutub, siis nende konverentsikõne saab kindlasti olema huvitav - pea terve viimase aasta on ettevõte pidevalt alahinnanud naftahindade mõju oma tulemustele ning 2007. aasta kruiisibroneeringute kohta on olnud kuulda vastakaid arvamusi. Ebaselgus aktsiaturul pole aga kohe kindlasti voorus.