Tere varahommikust!
Nädalalavahetuse pommuudis Saddam Husseini tabamisest USA vägede poolt on täna ilmselt peamine turgude mõjutaja.
Esimene indikatsioon uudise mõju kohta tuleb Aasiast: Jaapani börsiindeks Nikkei sulgus täna varahommikul Tokios 3,16% kõrgemal kui reedel.
Samuti on dollar on euro vastu liikunud viimase 5 päeva kõrgeimale tasemele.
Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Saddami tabamine on tõstnud futuurid keskmiselt 1.5% plussi ning käib tõsine debatt selle üle, kas tugevus on jätkusuutlik või mitte. Ühelt poolt kõrged tasemed, mis viimaste nädalate jooksul on järgi hakanud andma ning teiselt poolt lõksus olevad lühikeseks müüjad.
Mingisuguse indikatsiooni võib tõesti pakkuda dollari liikumine. Dollar tõusis euro vastu esimestel kauplemistundidel 1% jagu, kuid on praeguseks enam kui poole sellest juba tagasi andnud. Põhimõtteliselt on Saddami tabamine ju non-event, mis ei muuda olukorda olulisel määral. Tikriti linna juures tuli august välja väsinud vana mees, kellel pole ilmselgelt viimase aja liitlaste vastu suunatud tegevusega enam mingisugust seost.
Ise kuulun ilmselt nende hulka, kes proovivad mingil hetkel turu tugevust lühikeste positsioonide pealepanemiseks kasutada.
- Henkel, Saksa suur keemiatoodete konglomeraat teatas, et ostab ära USA konkurendi Dial Corp (DL)-i. Tehingu suuruseks on $2.9 mld. Asja juures on huvitav see, et tehingu finantseerimiseks võib Henkel maha müüa oma osalused Cloroxis (CLX, 28.4%) ning Ecolab (ECL)-s. Uudis võib lähinädalatel tekitada kunstlikku survet viimaste aktsiates.
- JP Morgan lisas Lexar Media (LEXR) oma Fookusnimekirja ning Weekly Top 3 Ideas nimekirja. 6 kuu hinnasihiks $23.
- Barrons kirjutab täna hommikul Net2Phone (NTOP)-st kui VoIP sektori value-playst. Artikli järgi kauplevad konkurendid SONS ja EGHT märksa kõrgemate valuatsioonide juures. NTOP-l on $2 raha aktsia kohta ning firma pakub oma teenuseid väiksematele kaabel-TV pakkujatele.
- Veel kirjutab Barrons pos. maiguga artikli Tyco (TYC) teemal. Iridian Asset Management-i fondijuhi Harold Levy sõnul on investorid unustanud fakti, et olenemata firma endise juhi Kozlowski "vägitegudest" omab Tyco (TYC) suurepärast äri, mis toodab suurt vaba rahavoogu.
- Tööriistatootja Illinois Tool (ITW) tõstab nii jooksva kvartali kui ka aasta kasumiprognoose. Hea uudis ka Black & Deckeri (BDK) aktsionäridele. Alles eelmisel nädalal tuli sarnase uudisega välja ka konkurent Stanley Works (SWK).
- Gary B. Smith:
- Todd Harrison
Good morning and welcome back to the upside attack. With the bearded man now in the can, the flames of the fire are sufficiently fanned. It's not like the Minx needed a spark (the bears have been stumbling alone in the dark), but with this news from the Middle East, Hoofy is looking for a newfound feast. Is it up, up and away for the Minxy fray? Or can the bears claw back and keep the bulls at bay? It's a brand new week in Critter Creek so lets saddle up and take a peek.
The question on everybody's lips this morning is simple: do you close your eyes and buy 'em? The path of least resistance has been on the upside, the Dow is five figures large, S&P 1075 has been the glass ceiling (now shattered) and there hasn't been this much performance anxiety since Bob Dole's wedding night. With technical resistance acting as newfound support and liquidity thin (and thinner) into year end, who's gonna stop Hoofy into the home stretch?
We often talk about field position and it's influence on investor perception. Bad news (that isn't horrible) is usually greeted with buyers if the tape is oversold and, conversely, good news (that isn't great) is typically sold when the market is extended. Thus, our task at hand is identifying how "good" this news is relative the recent action and when juxtaposed against the technical backdrop. That, as much as anything, will tell us if this beast will have legs.
Unless you've been in a cave (be it Red Dye Junction or Tikrit), you know that 2003 has been the revenge of the herds. The Saddam capture--while overtly positive on a human level--comes on the heels of a monstrous rally that has already produced outsized gains. We'll surely see a "blow-off" type squeeze this morning as the bears scramble for their sanity. When the dust settles, however, this isn't a shocking development for the global community and, by extension, the markets.
While it's true that we're officially broken out and vacuum potential exists, it's worth noting...no, it NEEDS to be noted...that panicky action often accompanies turning points. That, in a nutshell, is the basic premise of the "denial-migration-panic" trifecta that defines trading moves. There isn't one prognosticator out there who thinks that this fails. Given the calendar and the potential of emotional exacerbation, it very well may not. When identifying the spectrum of potential outcomes, however, it would be a mistake to discount it entirely.
There will likely be an initial pullback as the knee jerkers sell the news. If you're bullish and wanna play that way, that may be a better entry than the immediate opening. If, on the other hand, you don't believe the hype and wanna fade 'em like a pair of jeans, the second (or third) rally may prove to be a better entry point. The key will be "controlled aggression" and the ability to define risk regardless of your view.
One thing for certain, Minyans, this morning will be wild, it will be emotional and it will be hairy. Be calculated in your approach, identify a game plan before risking capital and please, if your an active trader, put limits on your orders. A (relatively) truer tenor will emerge midmorning after the freakers freak and the ursine shriek, so pay particular attention to the internals and leadership sectors. Also, as past support in future resistance, watch how the Minx reacts at S&P 1075 if and when it's retested.
While a quick sniff of the morning whiff shows green screens across the globe, I'm a bit surprised that the London is up less than a percent. Japan flexed, mind you, and Germany is trading at it's yearly highs but be wary of blind ambition. That doesn't mean the Minx can't sustain (or build on) her gains, you just need to understand that there's trappage risk--particularly when the market is this emotional.
Futuurid: Naz1.83% SP1.16%
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