Börsipäev 15. august

Üsna närviline päeva algus, plussi-miinusesse-plussi. Eilne ostuhuvi paistab täna jätkuvat, indeksid hetkel plussis.

Täna tehniliselt üsna oluline päev - kui täna suudetakse plussis sulguda, oleks see tugev punkt pullide poolele.

Teeks ühe põike tagasi teisipäeva, kui Fed otsustas intressid jätta muutmata, loomulikult oli Fedil juba siis tootmisväljalaske ja tootmisvõimsuste kasutamise numbrid käes, täna selgus ka investoritele, et need ei olnud halvad.

Tarbijausaldus taastub samuti kui lõppevad börsifirmade raamatupidamissegadused(aga pärast eile lõppenud sertifitseerimist ei tohiks enam uusi üllatusi tulla)
Philly FED indeks(see näitab tootmisaktiivsust Philadelphia piirkonnas) tuli oodatust madalam - oodati +7.8% tuli -3.1%. Seega tootmisaktiivsus, mis juulis selgelt alanes, on alanenud ka augustis.

Siiski tuleb märkida, et see käib vaid Philly kohta ja mitte terve riigi kohta.

Turg uudise peale kergelt alla.
The Philly index as released is not a composite of its subindexes, as the NAPM is. Instead, the Philly Fed survey asks many questions, but the total index is based on the general question "are business conditions better or worse than last month." It is often the case that a weighted measure of the individual questions on specifics such as new orders and production moves in a different direction than the index based on the general question.
Huvitavat statistikat Nasdaq-i kohta Merrill Lynchilt:

1996 aasta suvest (kui Nasdaq oli 1200) kuni 2000 aasta märtsini (Nasdaq 5000) oli ainult 3 kauplemispäeva, kus ineks tõusis + 5% või enam.

Karuturul, 2000 aasta tasemelt 5000, kuni uue low-ni 1229 - oli selliseid + 5% päevi tervenisti 22.

Võimalused kauplejale, pikemaajalise tehnoloogiainvestori surm.

dell pole lähiminevikus just suurt tõusu näidanud peale heade tulemuste avaldamist?
või mis arvate
* After the markets close, we anticipate Dell will report second quarter
(Q2:03) EPS of $0.19 on revenues of $8.3 billion -- in line with pre-release
guidance.

* The overall tone of the earnings call should be positive, with broad-based
strength driven by market share gains.

* While we are worried that there is potential disappointment from the strength
of the corporate upgrade cycle that many are expecting, we do believe that
Dell will have robust performance in the government sector. This is a
particularly big part of their business for their fiscal 3rd quarter -- along
with continuing share gains against HPQ.

* We think the guidance could be upbeat for Q3:03, with upside potential to our
third quarter revenue estimate of $8.4 billion and $0.20 EPS.

* If component prices should soften and ASPs are pressured, the company should
be able to offset lighter revenues through expense control to meet our new
October quarter estimates.

* As we have stressed in our "PC Economics" theme, Dell's low expense structure
relative to the competition enables them to drive a lower pricing model. The
disparity between Dell and the competition has grown, as they maintain a wide
E/R delta (currently 9.9%) over the competition (i.e., GTW- 24.1%). We also
believe the company's outlook will indicate they are progressing ahead of
schedule in expense management.

* Investment Recommendation: We believe Dell remains the best positioned
hardware company, with a widening relative competitive advantage. Dell is
well positioned to benefit from the "Draining the Server" in our view, and is
driving a change in the "New PC Economics." We would be more aggressive
except for valuation concerns. Maintain Buy rating and EPS estimates, with
price target of $32.50 reflecting a P/E of 41x our FY2003 EPS estimate.
aasta tagasi samal ajal vastasid Delli tulemused oodatule, kuid firma andis hoiatuse, aktsia hind läks langusse(25.38>), raporti eelsele tasemele jõudis alles 26.oktoobriks

pärast novembri raportit(beats 0.01) läks hind taas langusse(27.69>), seekord vaid paariks nädalaks 30 november sama tase

pärast veebruari raportit(inline) läks hind taas langusse(26.81) ja paari nädala pärast oli taas samal tasemel

pärast mai raportit(beats 0.01) läks aktsia langusse(27.85) päev hiljem(!) ja ei ole siiani sama taset saavutanud