USA majandusuudised ning orkaan Ivani lähenemine lõunapoolsetele osariikidele on futuuride hindadele negatiivselt mõjunud ning oodata on kerget miinuses avanemist.Nafta hind on samuti negatiivselt mõjumas ning naftabarrel on taas testimas 45 dollari taset.
JUba eile turul spekuleeritud ülevõtmine on teoks saamas ning Sony ostab 4,8 miljardi dollari eest filmitootja Metro Goldwyn Mayer (MGM). Lisaks teatas Sony, et on allkirjastanud lepingu Comcast`ga (CMCSK), et levitada oma filme esimese kaabelvõrgus, tegemist siis videote tellimisega läbi kaabelvõrgu.
Credit Suisse tõstis elektroonikatööstusele allhankeid tegeva Flextronics (FLEX) reitingut neutraalselt turgu edestavale ning hinnasihti 16 dollarile. Peamine põhjendus on, et aktsia hinnalangus on olnud liialt kiire ning ei peegelda enam tegelikku olukorda.
Goldman Sachs tõstis oksjonikorraldaja eBay (EBAY) prognoose. Kolmandalt kvartalilt oodatakse 790 miljoni dollari suurust käivet (varasem 775 miljonit) ja 27 senti kasumit aktsia kohta (varem 26 senti).
Rev Shark:
There is a large contingent of bears in this market who claim that it is extremely dangerous because of the high level of complacency exhibited by investors. These bears say that investors are too sanguine and are ignoring the substantial risks that exist in the market.
The bears' primary evidence of investor apathy toward danger is the CBOE Market Volatility Index, which is commonly referred to as the VIX. The best way to understand the VIX is to consider how the price of options is calculated. The option price, exercise price and maturity date are three variables that are known. A fourth factor that impacts the value of an option is the risk-free rate of return on capital -- in other words, what is the cost of having your funds tied up until the option expires?
If we take those four factors and the current price of an option and plug them into an option-pricing model such as the Black-Scholes model and solve it for an unknown fifth variable, that number is the implied volatility of the option. It is nothing more than the market's calculation of the amount of risk that the option will be at the strike price at the time of expiration.
The concern of the bears is that the VIX is at its lowest point since 1996. That means that market participants are not expecting wild fluctuations in the indices. They are comfortable and confident that the market will move up slowly and steadily without a lot of wild swings.
That complacency and lack of worry and concern is viewed by the bears as a contrary sign. The more confident that folks are that the market will move slowly and steadily upward, the more likely they will be disappointed. The bears say the very low level of the VIX is a signal that market participants are more and more likely to be greeted with a major surprise at some point.
That is what the VIX is all about. It is basically a contrary indicator based on the amount of potential volatility that investors are pricing into options. The less volatility that is expected to occur, the more confident investors are and the more likely they are going to be surprised by a big move.
The strong action in technology stocks that has been driving the Nasdaq has helped send the VIX down to 13.17, which is a level last seen in 1996. The bears claim that simply can't last for long. Investors are setting themselves up for a shock.
The problem is that VIX has been downtrending for about two years now. We have heard arguments about the high level of complacency all of last year as the markets rallied steadily. VIX is simply not a very precise timing tool. There is nothing to indicate that it has a great likelihood of spiking up in the near future. Obviously we should keep an eye on it but as far as signaling that some sort of disaster is on the cusp of occurring, we might as well stick to astrology.
Hurricane Ivan is helping to send crude oil up again this morning and that is weighing a bit on the early indications. Asian markets were up over night on strength in technology but European markets were lower on weakness in financials and IT. We have retail sales reports due out this morning, which will be interesting in view of recent strength in that group.
Gary B. Smith:
