Euroopa riikide nõrgad tööstustoodangu näitajad ning lisaks Portugali panga Espírito Santo kohale kogunenud tumedad pilved raputasid möödunud nädalal globaalseid turge üsna tugevalt. Ehkki jääb mulje, et langused olid isoleeritud, võtsid ka S&P 500 ja Nasdaq vastu suurima kaotuse alates aprillist. 
Selle nädala kalender toob juba märksa põnevamaid uudiseid. Täna selgub eurotsooni mai tööstustoodang, mis eelmise nädala suurriikide numbreid arvestades ei saa kuigi ilus olema. Ühendriikides on üsna olulisel kohal juuni jaemüük, esimesed juulikuu regionaalsed töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeksid ja veidi juuni kinnisvarastatistikat. Ühtlasi kogub tuure teise kvartali tulemuste hooaeg, millest valmib ka tavapärane ülevaade pikema uudise näol.
Esmaspäev 14. juuli
• Eurotsooni mai tööstustoodang: kuu baasil -1,2% ja mullusega võrreldes 0,5% (aprillis 1,4%)
• Mario Draghi kvartaalne ettekanne ELi parlamendi ees
• Majandustulemused: E (enne turgu) - Citigroup
Teisipäev 15. juuli
• Jaapani keskpanga istung: rahabaasi siht peaks jääma 270 triljon jeeni peale
• Suurbritannia juuni inflatsioon: marginaalne kiirenemine 1,6% peale
• Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute juuli sentimendi indeksid: väike langus nii jooksva olukorra kui järgmise kuue kuu hinnangus
• USA juuni jaemüük: koos autodega 0,6% MoM (mais 0,3%) ja ilma autodeta 0,5% (mais 0,1%)
• NY Fedi töötleva tööstuse juuli aktiivsusindeks: langus 19,28 punktilt 17,0 punktile
• Janet Yellen poolaasta aruanne Senati ees
• Majandustulemused: E- Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan; P – Intel, Yahoo!
Kolmapäev 16. juuli
• Hiina teise kvartali SKP: YoY 7,4%
• Hiina juuni jaemüük ja tööstustoodang: vastavalt 12,5% ja 9,0% YoY (mais 12,5% ja 8,8%)
• Suurbritannia juuni töötu abiraha taotlused: -27,0K, töötuse määr peaks langema 0,1pp 6,5% peale
• USA juuni tööstustoodang:0,3% MoM (0,6% mais)
• USA NAHB majade ehitajate juuli kindlustunde indeks: paranemine ühe punkti võrra 50 punktile
• USA FEDi Beige Book
• Majandustulemused: E – Bank of America, BlackRock; P – eBay, Yum! Brands
Neljapäev 17. juuli
• Eurotsooni juuni lõplik inflatsioon: 0,5%, sama mis esialgne näit
• USA juunis alustatud elamute ehituste arv: 2,4% kosumine pärast -6,5% langust mais
• USA juunis väljastatud ehituslubade arv: 3,1% tõus pärast -5,1% langust mais
• USA möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotluste arv: 310K vs 304K mais
• USA Philadelphia FEDi töötleva tööstuse juuli PMI: 16,0 punkti vs 17,8 punkti juunis
• Majandustulemused: E – American Airlines, Baker Hughes, Morgan Stanley, Philip Morris, SAP; P- AMD, Google, IBM, Schlumberger
Reede 18. Juuli
• USA Michigani ülikooli tarbijate juuli kindlustunde indeks: 83,0 vs 82,5 juunis
• USA juuni juhtivate indikaatorite indeks: 0,5% vs 0,5% mais
• Majandustulemused: E- General Electric, Honeywell, Johnson Controls, Ericsson
Mõned tänased analüütikute kommentaarid Euroopa ettevõtete kohta:
Home Retail PT Raised to 240p vs 230p at UBS, Keeps Buy (Close 165,2)
Saipem PT Cut to Eu18 vs Eu19 at Deutsche Bank; Kept at Hold (Close 18,82)
Technip Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 88 to 92 (Close 75,78)
• TEC has stood out from peers this year winning significant market share in largely robust end-markets. Although we anticipate onshore/offshore guidance could be revised slightly lower during Q2s due to the dilutive impact of Yamal, this appears largely understood. Conversely we expect upbeat commentary on end-market conditions, strong Q2 backlog across the board and greater visibility on a 2015E subsea margin recovery provided by robust summer margins. This should prove an important step in de-risking the outlook and arresting the earnings downgrade cycle.
Tesco Raised to Buy vs Sell at Cantor; PT 282 to 325 (Close 278,1)
Aviva Removed From Citi Focus List Europe
Allianz Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Allianz, Experian Added to Citi Focus List Europe
• Allianz’s surplus cash generation means buybacks possible, dividend now seen “substantially higher,” stock added to Focus List after Capital Markets Day, Citigroup says in note today.
• Raises rating from neutral, raises PT 8% to EU149.
• Ability to pass on FCF to holding co. better than Citi previously though, better than peer avg
• Sees dividend payout rising from current 40% to 50% by 2017
• That implies CAGR dividend growth of >10%, implies dividend yield in 5%-6% range
• Sees 2014 DPS at EU5.90, 2015 at EU6.50 vs BDVD forecasts EU5.40 and EU5.60
• Sees surplus capital accumulating even with higher payout, will result in “more aggressive capital management”
• Says Pimco downside earnings risk starting to be priced in
Tieto Cut to Hold at Nordea: PT 23,0 to 22,5 (Close 21,25)
Rushydro Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT RUB 0.57 (Close 0,69)
• RusHydro's stock has been unjustifiably buoyant this year, we feel, despite recent downgrades. It may remain strong for longer, but with no change in fundamentals, valuation rich and IRRs uncertain, we see few reasons to warrant the rally
RTL Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT from 102 to Eu87 (Close 77,51)
• RTL no longer offers enough upside to warrant outperform rating, Credit Suisse says in note; cuts 2014 Ebita est 2% to take into account new ad tax in Hungary.
• Credit Suisse: no imminent catalyst, with TV ad mkt in Germany stable, not accelerating; France still weak
• FMM performance to be limited in 2014 by absence of X-Factor in U.S., renegotiated American Idol contract in 2015
• Overall 2014 outlook is “lackluster”
Home Retail PT Raised to 240p vs 230p at UBS, Keeps Buy (Close 165,2)
Saipem PT Cut to Eu18 vs Eu19 at Deutsche Bank; Kept at Hold (Close 18,82)
Technip Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 88 to 92 (Close 75,78)
• TEC has stood out from peers this year winning significant market share in largely robust end-markets. Although we anticipate onshore/offshore guidance could be revised slightly lower during Q2s due to the dilutive impact of Yamal, this appears largely understood. Conversely we expect upbeat commentary on end-market conditions, strong Q2 backlog across the board and greater visibility on a 2015E subsea margin recovery provided by robust summer margins. This should prove an important step in de-risking the outlook and arresting the earnings downgrade cycle.
Tesco Raised to Buy vs Sell at Cantor; PT 282 to 325 (Close 278,1)
Aviva Removed From Citi Focus List Europe
Allianz Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Allianz, Experian Added to Citi Focus List Europe
• Allianz’s surplus cash generation means buybacks possible, dividend now seen “substantially higher,” stock added to Focus List after Capital Markets Day, Citigroup says in note today.
• Raises rating from neutral, raises PT 8% to EU149.
• Ability to pass on FCF to holding co. better than Citi previously though, better than peer avg
• Sees dividend payout rising from current 40% to 50% by 2017
• That implies CAGR dividend growth of >10%, implies dividend yield in 5%-6% range
• Sees 2014 DPS at EU5.90, 2015 at EU6.50 vs BDVD forecasts EU5.40 and EU5.60
• Sees surplus capital accumulating even with higher payout, will result in “more aggressive capital management”
• Says Pimco downside earnings risk starting to be priced in
Tieto Cut to Hold at Nordea: PT 23,0 to 22,5 (Close 21,25)
Rushydro Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT RUB 0.57 (Close 0,69)
• RusHydro's stock has been unjustifiably buoyant this year, we feel, despite recent downgrades. It may remain strong for longer, but with no change in fundamentals, valuation rich and IRRs uncertain, we see few reasons to warrant the rally
RTL Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT from 102 to Eu87 (Close 77,51)
• RTL no longer offers enough upside to warrant outperform rating, Credit Suisse says in note; cuts 2014 Ebita est 2% to take into account new ad tax in Hungary.
• Credit Suisse: no imminent catalyst, with TV ad mkt in Germany stable, not accelerating; France still weak
• FMM performance to be limited in 2014 by absence of X-Factor in U.S., renegotiated American Idol contract in 2015
• Overall 2014 outlook is “lackluster”
Ehkki Banco Espírito Santo probleemidel ei tohiks olla riigipiirist kaugemale ulatuvat mõju, aitasid need siiski avada uuesti silmad, näidates et kuigi pinna peal võib pilt rahulikum tunduda, siis pinna all pulbitsevad nii era- kui avalikus sektoris endiselt kõrged võlakoormad, mis on kohati kõrgemad kui need olid enne kriisi. Üheks näiteks on Itaalia valitsus, kelle võlakoorem jõudis mais rekordilise 2,17 triljoni euroni (+19,9 miljardit võrreldes aprilliga).
eurotsooni maikuu tööstustoodang langes aprilliga võrreldes -1,1%, mis osutus 0,1pp võrra paremaks kui oodati. Aasta baasil aeglustus kasv 1,4% pealt 0,5% peale.
Citi müügitulu ja EPS (ilma erakorraliste kuludeta) oodatust paremad
Citigroup prelim $1.24 vs $1.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $19.34 bln vs $18.84 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Citigroup prelim $1.24 vs $1.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $19.34 bln vs $18.84 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Oh õnnetust! Müüsin kunagi Citi kasumiga maha, aga nüüd ei õnnestu ega õnnestu odavamalt tagasi osta.
Mõned tänased analüütikute otsused USA ettevõtete kohta:
Qualcomm downgraded to Neutral from Strong Buy at ISI Group
Yelp Rated New Underweight at Evercore, PT $65
Covidien Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Viper Energy Partners initiated with a Outperform at Wells Fargo
Viper Energy Partners initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $36
Markit initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $27
Markit initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $30
Markit initiated with a Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $29
Markit initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $27
Markit initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $28
Markit initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $28
Lear upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $113 from $93
Visteon downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Apple upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $110 from $95
Apple target raised to $110 from $99 at Morgan Stanley; Overweight
Dana Holding downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $27 from $28
Wells Fargo downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $52 from $54.50
Charles Schwab initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $35
TD Ameritrade initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $34
Western Digital tgt raised to $118 from $100 at Deutsche Bank; Buy
Seagate Tech tgt raised to $74 from $64 at Deutsche Bank; Buy
Yelp initiated with an Underweight at Evercore; tgt $65
Intercept Pharma initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $395
Reynolds American upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $72
eBay downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest
TripAdvisor downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura
Qualcomm downgraded to Neutral from Strong Buy at ISI Group
Yelp Rated New Underweight at Evercore, PT $65
Covidien Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Viper Energy Partners initiated with a Outperform at Wells Fargo
Viper Energy Partners initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $36
Markit initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $27
Markit initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $30
Markit initiated with a Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $29
Markit initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $27
Markit initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $28
Markit initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $28
Lear upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $113 from $93
Visteon downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Apple upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $110 from $95
Apple target raised to $110 from $99 at Morgan Stanley; Overweight
Dana Holding downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $27 from $28
Wells Fargo downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $52 from $54.50
Charles Schwab initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $35
TD Ameritrade initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $34
Western Digital tgt raised to $118 from $100 at Deutsche Bank; Buy
Seagate Tech tgt raised to $74 from $64 at Deutsche Bank; Buy
Yelp initiated with an Underweight at Evercore; tgt $65
Intercept Pharma initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $395
Reynolds American upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $72
eBay downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest
TripAdvisor downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura
Goldman tõstab oma S&P 500 tänavust sihti
Goldman Boosts Yr-End 2014 S&P 500 Forecast to 2050 From 1900
Strateegide S&P 500 siht (valge) vs USA 2014.a SKP kasvuootus (oranž)
Goldman Boosts Yr-End 2014 S&P 500 Forecast to 2050 From 1900
Strateegide S&P 500 siht (valge) vs USA 2014.a SKP kasvuootus (oranž)
