Tänast börsipäeva alustaks teatega, et Yahoo (YHOO) otsingud uue CEO järele on lõpuks lahenduse leidnud. Uueks CEOks nimetatakse Carol Bartz, kes oli Autodeski juht aastail 1992-2006. Investorid Caroli ametisse nimetamise peale päris pöördesse pole näinud, kuid eilne päev suudeti ikkagi järelturul üle 3%lises plussis lõpetada.
India börsi suurettevõtte Satyami skandaal jätkub ning täna on üles korjatud aruannetest info, et 6 kuud enne fiktiivsete $1 miljardi suuruste varade ilmsikstulemist müüsid ettevõtte juhid aktsiaid $1.8 miljoni eest. Satyami aktsiaid müüs juhtkond kuue kuu jooksul rohkem, kui Sensex indeksi 30 ettevõttes kokku. Väärtpaberituru järelvalve arenguriikides veel nõrgal tasemel.
Vaatab, kuhu kanti YHOO orderid tulema hakkavad, aga kui peaks kõrgelt avanema, siis ma betiks täna fade'ile.
Miks? Eile umbes 12:50 paiku, kui WSJ teatas, et Bartz valitakse CEO-ks, tegi aktsia küll spike'i, aga tuli kiiresti alla. Miks siis mõni tund hiljem ametliku uudise peale YHOO järelturul uuesti üles läks? Tegu oli ikkagi WSJ teatega, mitte suvalise rumor milliga.
Kuigi valdav osa analüütikuid ja industry inimesi on üsna sillas Bartzist ja ütlevad, et ta on just õige inimene, siis leidub ka kriitikuid. Mõni väljavõte arvamustest:
WSJ Heard on the Street: "at first glance, Yahoo's choice of Carol Bartz isn't exactly inspiring."
Eric Jackson, president of Ironfire Capital LLC and an outspoken critic of Yahoo's management, said Bartz's appointment pointed to "more of the same" at Yahoo because of her limited Internet experience and existing relationship with Yang. Bartz "will be operating at a different scale, and the industry relevance is also obviously missing. I think she is definitely going to look to Yang and the old board for guidance," said Jackson, who recently sold most of his group's Yahoo shares because of growing concerns about the lack of direction at the company.
An executive for a major website publisher considers the Bartz appointment "puzzling," adding "It signals to all of us, that Yahoo doesn't know what kind of kind of company it is and wants to be. Autodesk is a B2B software company. She's not a media person. That's important. A large portion of Yahoo's revenue comes from from ads. If they chose Bartz because they couldn't get one of the roster of internet industry all-stars like (former AOL CEO/Velocity Partners' Jonathan) Miller or (News Corp COO/President Peter) Chernin, well, then that's just pathetic.
Vähemalt osa Yahoo töötajaid pole ka erilises vaimustuses uuest CEO-st:
One employee said word of Bartz's appointment was poorly received in his department. "Everyone around here is dumbfounded.
Remember what happened to Titanic?" said the employee, who requested anonymity.
Eks väikse riskina jääb üles tehing Microsoftiga, aga tõenäoliselt täielikku ülevõtmist ei tule ning search diili jaoks on Yahoo aktsia minu arvates lähiperspektiivis enam-vähem õiglaselt hinnatud juba niigi.
Miks? Eile umbes 12:50 paiku, kui WSJ teatas, et Bartz valitakse CEO-ks, tegi aktsia küll spike'i, aga tuli kiiresti alla. Miks siis mõni tund hiljem ametliku uudise peale YHOO järelturul uuesti üles läks? Tegu oli ikkagi WSJ teatega, mitte suvalise rumor milliga.
Kuigi valdav osa analüütikuid ja industry inimesi on üsna sillas Bartzist ja ütlevad, et ta on just õige inimene, siis leidub ka kriitikuid. Mõni väljavõte arvamustest:
WSJ Heard on the Street: "at first glance, Yahoo's choice of Carol Bartz isn't exactly inspiring."
Eric Jackson, president of Ironfire Capital LLC and an outspoken critic of Yahoo's management, said Bartz's appointment pointed to "more of the same" at Yahoo because of her limited Internet experience and existing relationship with Yang. Bartz "will be operating at a different scale, and the industry relevance is also obviously missing. I think she is definitely going to look to Yang and the old board for guidance," said Jackson, who recently sold most of his group's Yahoo shares because of growing concerns about the lack of direction at the company.
An executive for a major website publisher considers the Bartz appointment "puzzling," adding "It signals to all of us, that Yahoo doesn't know what kind of kind of company it is and wants to be. Autodesk is a B2B software company. She's not a media person. That's important. A large portion of Yahoo's revenue comes from from ads. If they chose Bartz because they couldn't get one of the roster of internet industry all-stars like (former AOL CEO/Velocity Partners' Jonathan) Miller or (News Corp COO/President Peter) Chernin, well, then that's just pathetic.
Vähemalt osa Yahoo töötajaid pole ka erilises vaimustuses uuest CEO-st:
One employee said word of Bartz's appointment was poorly received in his department. "Everyone around here is dumbfounded.
Remember what happened to Titanic?" said the employee, who requested anonymity.
Eks väikse riskina jääb üles tehing Microsoftiga, aga tõenäoliselt täielikku ülevõtmist ei tule ning search diili jaoks on Yahoo aktsia minu arvates lähiperspektiivis enam-vähem õiglaselt hinnatud juba niigi.
Igaks juhuks mainin, et tegu pole high conviction treidimisideega (veel) :) Hea meelega tahaks näha, kas ja mida mõnel suuremal analüüsimajal öelda on. Ei saa välistada, et uue CEO saamine siiski toob kergenduslaine hedge fundide hulgas ning MSFT ülevõtu ajal soetatud positsioonide keskmistamise.
fun, pigem oli vastupidi. Esimene reaktsioon oli ka vaatlejate pootl, et Bartz ei ole eriti hea valik. Alles hiljem hakati avalikult rohkem rääkima, et positiivse poole pealt saab välja tuua Bartzi loomingulisust, kindlat juhtimist ning track recordit. Võib-olla ongi väike tuulutus hea. MSFT ülevõtmine on tõepoolest päevakorrast maas, kuid searh deali tegemisel kaupleks aktsia ikka oluliselt kõrgemal. Pigem on küsimus selles, et tõenäosus on vähenemas.
Aga mõne maja kommentaarid on siin:
Jeffries:
We find several of her experiences at Autodesk directly relevant to YHOO's current situation, namely: a) no-nonsense approach to restructuring and cost control, b) ability to deal with a strong culture and instil operational discipline, c) ability to boost employee moral, plug the talent drain and improve investor confidence, and d) tenacity to withstand the pressures of displeased investors in difficult situations. These skills will come in handy as she wades through the challenges of managing Yahoo!'s eroding moral, disgruntled investors and, dealing with potential strategic choices (MSFT and AOL), selling important assets and fixing YHOO's struggling display ad business.
• Having said that, it remains to be seen whether her experience leading a traditional software company prepared her well to lead the
largest display ad provider and second largest search player —two areas she does not seem to have had exposure to before. Her lack of Internet experience is a risk, particularly considering who the competitors are.
Citi:
The Bartz Pick Likely Steers YHOO Towards A Growth Or Options Strategy — We have viewed the company’s strategic choices as a) Running the company for Growth (recognizing the company’s still considerable Internet assets and brand strength); b) Running the company for Cash (given approx $3.5B in net cash and significant off-balance-sheet assets); or c) Running the company for Options (looking for a buyer for all or part of the company). Bartz doesn’t strike us a Cash CEO. Our history with YHOO is that new CEO (Terry Semel in ’01) are given a lot of leeway to run the company. We expect Bartz to have similar leeway. But we don’t expect any major strategic decisions to be made immediately, per Bartz’s request for “freakin’ breathing room.”
Morgan Stanley on insenerisoskuste osas teisel arvamusel :)
We have known Carol for years and think she's a strong choice. She's known for being tough, fair, a good team builder and leaving her ego at the door. Given her 30+ years working in the technology industry, she knows great engineers plus a strong product vision and keen customer focus are key underpinnings for successful technology companies. As a CEO she has an impressive track record of creating shareholder value.
Jeffries:
We find several of her experiences at Autodesk directly relevant to YHOO's current situation, namely: a) no-nonsense approach to restructuring and cost control, b) ability to deal with a strong culture and instil operational discipline, c) ability to boost employee moral, plug the talent drain and improve investor confidence, and d) tenacity to withstand the pressures of displeased investors in difficult situations. These skills will come in handy as she wades through the challenges of managing Yahoo!'s eroding moral, disgruntled investors and, dealing with potential strategic choices (MSFT and AOL), selling important assets and fixing YHOO's struggling display ad business.
• Having said that, it remains to be seen whether her experience leading a traditional software company prepared her well to lead the
largest display ad provider and second largest search player —two areas she does not seem to have had exposure to before. Her lack of Internet experience is a risk, particularly considering who the competitors are.
Citi:
The Bartz Pick Likely Steers YHOO Towards A Growth Or Options Strategy — We have viewed the company’s strategic choices as a) Running the company for Growth (recognizing the company’s still considerable Internet assets and brand strength); b) Running the company for Cash (given approx $3.5B in net cash and significant off-balance-sheet assets); or c) Running the company for Options (looking for a buyer for all or part of the company). Bartz doesn’t strike us a Cash CEO. Our history with YHOO is that new CEO (Terry Semel in ’01) are given a lot of leeway to run the company. We expect Bartz to have similar leeway. But we don’t expect any major strategic decisions to be made immediately, per Bartz’s request for “freakin’ breathing room.”
Morgan Stanley on insenerisoskuste osas teisel arvamusel :)
We have known Carol for years and think she's a strong choice. She's known for being tough, fair, a good team builder and leaving her ego at the door. Given her 30+ years working in the technology industry, she knows great engineers plus a strong product vision and keen customer focus are key underpinnings for successful technology companies. As a CEO she has an impressive track record of creating shareholder value.
Aga mõne maja kommentaarid on siin:
Jeffries:
We find several of her experiences at Autodesk directly relevant to YHOO's current situation, namely: a) no-nonsense approach to restructuring and cost control, b) ability to deal with a strong culture and instil operational discipline, c) ability to boost employee moral, plug the talent drain and improve investor confidence, and d) tenacity to withstand the pressures of displeased investors in difficult situations. These skills will come in handy as she wades through the challenges of managing Yahoo!'s eroding moral, disgruntled investors and, dealing with potential strategic choices (MSFT and AOL), selling important assets and fixing YHOO's struggling display ad business.• Having said that, it remains to be seen whether her experience leading a traditional software company prepared her well to lead thelargest display ad provider and second largest search player —two areas she does not seem to have had exposure to before. Her lack of Internet experience is a risk, particularly considering who the competitors are.
Citi:
The Bartz Pick Likely Steers YHOO Towards A Growth Or Options Strategy — We have viewed the company’s strategic choices as a) Running the company for Growth (recognizing the company’s still considerable Internet assets and brand strength); b) Running the company for Cash (given approx $3.5B in net cash and significant off-balance-sheet assets); or c) Running the company for Options (looking for a buyer for all or part of the company). Bartz doesn’t strike us a Cash CEO. Our history with YHOO is that new CEO (Terry Semel in ’01) are given a lot of leeway to run the company. We expect Bartz to have similar leeway. But we don’t expect any major strategic decisions to be made immediately, per Bartz’s request for “freakin’ breathing room.”
Morgan Stanley on insenerisoskuste osas teisel arvamusel :)
We have known Carol for years and think she's a strong choice. She's known for being tough, fair, a good team builder and leaving her ego at the door. Given her 30+ years working in the technology industry, she knows great engineers plus a strong product vision and keen customer focus are key underpinnings for successful technology companies. As a CEO she has an impressive track record of creating shareholder value.
Mulle on ka silma jäänud, et teda kiidetakse kui head teambuilderit. "No M&A experience" on päris paljud öelnud... Tundub, et Bartzi kasu tuleb heal juhul pikas perspektiivis, lähiajal pole YHOO aktsionäridel millegi üle nagu rõõmustada. Kõvasti restruktureerimisi, kulude kärpimisi, konkurentidega tegelemine jne, kiireid diile ja kiireid kasumeid ei paista.
Aga Euroopas saavad pangad ja kaevandajad peksa.
Deutsche Banki kasumihoiatus on ikka üsna nõrk. Eks neid tuleb veelgi.
Huvitav, kas meil pärast seda kriisi kommertspangandus kah alles on? :-D
HSBC upgrades AU Optronics (AUO) to Overweight from Neutral and raised their tgt to $38.50 from $23.90.
Päris kõva upgrade, eriti arvestades aktsia hinda. Tagamaid siiski ei tea.
Päris kõva upgrade, eriti arvestades aktsia hinda. Tagamaid siiski ei tea.
Briefing vahendab veel Friedmani arvamust YHOO uue CEO Bartzi kohta:
YHOO Yahoo!: Bartz is as good a hire as Yahoo could expect; deal with Microsoft not imminent
Friedman Billings notes that YHOO appointed Carol Bartz, the former CEO and current executive chairman of Autodesk (ADSK), as CEO. Firm believes that Bartz is as good a hire as Yahoo could expect. Bartz should bring the same organizational strengths that she used to focus and align ADSK as its CEO. While the lack of internet experience will be cited as a deficiency, there was never going to be a perfect candidate. The lack of focus and organization at Yahoo cover the majority of the co's addressable challenges in our opinion, playing to those strengths. Firm interprets Bartz' parting message on the conference call that what Yahoo needs most is "breathing room" as an indication that no deal with Microsoft (MSFT) is imminent. While investors may optimistically hope that Bartz will "clean up Yahoo" for sale, firm believes the majority of the board and senior mgmt continue to see YHOO's future as a stand alone co and that she was hired with the long term in mind.
YHOO Yahoo!: Bartz is as good a hire as Yahoo could expect; deal with Microsoft not imminent
Friedman Billings notes that YHOO appointed Carol Bartz, the former CEO and current executive chairman of Autodesk (ADSK), as CEO. Firm believes that Bartz is as good a hire as Yahoo could expect. Bartz should bring the same organizational strengths that she used to focus and align ADSK as its CEO. While the lack of internet experience will be cited as a deficiency, there was never going to be a perfect candidate. The lack of focus and organization at Yahoo cover the majority of the co's addressable challenges in our opinion, playing to those strengths. Firm interprets Bartz' parting message on the conference call that what Yahoo needs most is "breathing room" as an indication that no deal with Microsoft (MSFT) is imminent. While investors may optimistically hope that Bartz will "clean up Yahoo" for sale, firm believes the majority of the board and senior mgmt continue to see YHOO's future as a stand alone co and that she was hired with the long term in mind.
December Retail Sales ex-auto -3.1% vs -1.4% consensus, prior revised to -2.5% from -1.6%
December Retail Sales -2.7% vs -1.2% consensus, prior revised to -2.1% from -1.8%
Jube.
December Retail Sales -2.7% vs -1.2% consensus, prior revised to -2.1% from -1.8%
Jube.
December Retail Sales -2.7% vs -1.2% consensus, prior revised to -2.1% from -1.8%
December Retail Sales ex-auto -3.1% vs -1.4% consensus, prior revised to -2.5% from -1.6%
December Retail Sales ex-auto -3.1% vs -1.4% consensus, prior revised to -2.5% from -1.6%
Tekib muidugi küsimus, et kui analüütikud prognoosivad 4. kvartalilt SKP langust 5% jagu.... teatakse, et jõulumüük oli aastakümnete mannetuim, et miks siis jaemüügi osas üldse ollakse väljas -1.2%liste prognoosidega...
Konsensus. Aritmeetiline keskmine seast ja käost. Suhteliselt väärtusetu infokild tegelikult.
Jah, aga loeb see, et nii mõnelgi juhul (makro puhul rohkem) suhtub turg sea ja käö kooslusesse üsna tõsiselt. Ning vastavalt ka reageerib.
Kas nagu näiteks jobs reporti puhul - et marginaalne erinevus konsensusest ja turud kohe tankimas? Ok, ok - ma niisama norin. :-D