Gapping up
M&A speculation related: AOL +4.3% (AOL CEO talks to shareholders about a sale to Yahoo, according to reports out last night), AKAM +2.7% (lifted after the close on GOOG for AKAM rumor, off highs on reports this morning indicating that GOOG denied speculation).
Other news: EK +8.1% (modestly rebounding, still checking for anything new), VRTX +4.4% (strength attributed to analyst comments suggesting IMS underestimated sales of co's hep C drug, which would ease concerns about drug's sales), ALU +3.5% (trading higher on reports that the co plans to sell its call unit), SBH +3.2% (increases size of size of public offering by 3 mln shares and prices 18 mln shares of common stock at $16.75 by CDR Investors), AONE +2.9% (continued strength), AVP +1% (positive mention at MadMoney).
Analyst comments: CYTK +9.8% (thinly traded, initiated with a Mkt Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw), RAX +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), BRCM +0.9% (light volume, upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird).
ZH poolt ülevaade JPMorgani tulemuste saamisest:
A quick look at the JPM earnings this morning would indicate all is well and that the company beat on the top and the bottom line: after all the company generated $23.76 billion in revenue on expectations of $23.26 and EPS of $1.02 relative to an expectation of $0.92. So far so good.
The only problem is that unlike in previous quarter, when the primary driver of the bottom line was releasing reserves, this quarter, when everything blew out and blew up, that would have been seen as massively disingenuous, even by such permaclown as Dick Bove (which nonetheless did not stop the bank regardless, and JPM did take a $170 million reserve release, granted less than the $1.2 billion in Q2). So what does JPM do? Why it pulls the "Fair Value Option" card, discussed recently in the context of Morgan Stanley when we speculated whether the bank's biggest asset was their debt.
Turns out we had the concept right, but the bank wrong, because $0.29 of EPS Net Income, or $1.9 billion pretax, was a "benefit from debit valuation adjustment (“DVA”) gains in the Investment Bank, resulting from widening of the Firm’s credit spreads." That's right: the fact that JPM spreads blew out in the quarter, and its default risk soared, for one reason or another actually served to "generate" not only net income but also revenue! And now you see why American banks can never lose - in a good quarter, they release reserves; in a bad quarter they take FVO benefits in the form of Debit Valuation Adjustments, or in this case both! Winner, winner, always a chicken dinner for Jamie Dimon. Expect every other bank to do the same accounting BS this quarter to pad their numbers.
Initial Claims 404K vs 406K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 405K from 401K
Contnuing Claims falls to 3.67 mln from 3.725 mln
August Trade Balance -$45.6 bln vs -$46.1 bln Briefing.com consensus
Contnuing Claims falls to 3.67 mln from 3.725 mln
August Trade Balance -$45.6 bln vs -$46.1 bln Briefing.com consensus
Fitch Ratings lowers UK support rating floors; downgrades Lloyds, RBS to 'A'
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SMSI -15.9% (ticking lower), FCS -7.7%, UFPI -4.1% (light volume), JPM -1.2%, OZRK -0.7%.
Select financial related names lower: LYG -5.3%, BCS -3.6%, BBVA -2.9%, C -2.7% (looking to sell EMI as separate businesses, according to reports), UBS -2.4%, DB -1.9%, HBC -1.7%, MS -1.5%, GS -1.5%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -2%, MT -2%, FCX -1.8%, EGO -1.7%, RIO -1.6% (reports Q3 operational results; produces global iron ore production of 64 mln tonnes, +5% YoY), SLV -1.6%, GOLD -1.5%, BHP -1.3%, GDX -1.3%, GLD -0.5%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -1.7%, HAL -1.6%, OXY -1.5%, SD -1.4%, BP -1.3% (BP joint venture TNK-BP shareholder raises damage claims, according to reports), SLB -1.1%, RIG -0.7% (announces that an investigation confirms there is no oil leaking from sunken rig or riser), TOT -0.4%.
A few European drug names are under pressure: AZN -1.4%, NVS -0.8%.
Other news: USAT -15.6% (USA Tech ticking lower after disclosing it suspended Chairman and CEO pending the ongoing investigation), SNH -3.3% (announces proposed public offering of 6,000,000 common shares), MET -0.8% (MetLife to explore sale of MetLife Bank's Forward Mortgage Business).
Analyst comments: KR -2.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), ADS -1.5% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SMSI -15.9% (ticking lower), FCS -7.7%, UFPI -4.1% (light volume), JPM -1.2%, OZRK -0.7%.
Select financial related names lower: LYG -5.3%, BCS -3.6%, BBVA -2.9%, C -2.7% (looking to sell EMI as separate businesses, according to reports), UBS -2.4%, DB -1.9%, HBC -1.7%, MS -1.5%, GS -1.5%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -2%, MT -2%, FCX -1.8%, EGO -1.7%, RIO -1.6% (reports Q3 operational results; produces global iron ore production of 64 mln tonnes, +5% YoY), SLV -1.6%, GOLD -1.5%, BHP -1.3%, GDX -1.3%, GLD -0.5%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -1.7%, HAL -1.6%, OXY -1.5%, SD -1.4%, BP -1.3% (BP joint venture TNK-BP shareholder raises damage claims, according to reports), SLB -1.1%, RIG -0.7% (announces that an investigation confirms there is no oil leaking from sunken rig or riser), TOT -0.4%.
A few European drug names are under pressure: AZN -1.4%, NVS -0.8%.
Other news: USAT -15.6% (USA Tech ticking lower after disclosing it suspended Chairman and CEO pending the ongoing investigation), SNH -3.3% (announces proposed public offering of 6,000,000 common shares), MET -0.8% (MetLife to explore sale of MetLife Bank's Forward Mortgage Business).
Analyst comments: KR -2.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), ADS -1.5% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust).
Doug Kass oli eile Yahoo! Finance eetris jagamas kommentaare oma turunägemuse kohta. Link
One-Way Train Keeps A-Rollin'
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Oct 13, 2011 | 8:38 AM
"Seize the day, and put the least possible trust in tomorrow." --Horace
The market has had an impressive run the past week, jumping more than 10% from the recent lows. There is just one big problem: it can't be trusted.
The entire move has the feel of a low-volume, oversold bounce that has kept going because of poorly positioned, overly negative market players who are being squeezed by aggressive high-frequency and computerized trading. Volume has been light the whole way, and there's very little in the way of any strong leadership.
It is never easy to be very trusting of light-volume V-shaped bounces, but this one has been even more challenging than usual, as we become very quickly overbought and start hitting substantial overhead resistance. We finally paused at 1120 of the S&P 500 Wednesday, but it's been a one-way ride for a week.
In addition to the lopsided action, the primary fundamental explanation for the rally is that Europe is making progress finding a solution for its banking and sovereign debt problems. Maybe so, but there are still a substantial number of obstacles to any real solution; however, the headlines have been spun in a way that makes it sound like the problems may be over soon, and that is helping to provide strong underlying support for now.
What has made this action particularly hard to trust is how lopsided and manipulated it has felt. We have not had any of the normal ebb and flow that you usually see as market players debate the pros and cons of the market. It has been a one-way train, and everyone wants to know how much further they can ride before reality sets in.
I think of this sort of action like a Ponzi scheme. There is no particular reason to trust it, but as long as there is a supply of willing buyers who are greedy and afraid of missing out, it will continue. At some point, the most recent buyers will fail to see immediate gains and panic. Then the momentum will shift, but the fear of being left behind can be a major driving force that makes these moves last far longer than seems reasonably.
I don't want to sound overly negative here because if we do pull back and consolidate, we will have a good technical setup. I am optimistic about the market action into the end of the year. We have gone up too far, too fast in the short term and that has left us with a market that doesn't have good entry points or technical setups.
One of the characteristics of the recent move that I have found most notable is how much complaining there has been about the inability to build up long inventory. It has been a joyless move for many as they struggled to find ways to put money to work. It has been even worse for the bears, who have been quick to anticipate a short-term top. This has likely created a big supply of dip buyers who will provide support, so I believe there is a good chance we won't be revisiting the recent lows any time soon.
Skepticism and lack of enthusiasm are a big reason this market has been running so hot, and high-frequency and computerized trading has done a good job of exploiting it. The selling at the close Wednesday was a very slight change in character and we have a little downside follow through this morning, so traders are going to be very watchful for momentum to fizzle out.
With the onset of earnings season today, the market is due for a change of character anyway. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported ahead of the bell and is trading down, but Google's (GOOG) report tonight will likely receive more attention. We are set up well for a sell-the-news reaction to some reports, but the shorts seem to be endlessly squeezed lately and could find themselves in trouble if they are too aggressive.
It is a very tough market to trust, but a good shakeup as earnings season rolls out should provide opportunities.
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Oct 13, 2011 | 8:38 AM
"Seize the day, and put the least possible trust in tomorrow." --Horace
The market has had an impressive run the past week, jumping more than 10% from the recent lows. There is just one big problem: it can't be trusted.
The entire move has the feel of a low-volume, oversold bounce that has kept going because of poorly positioned, overly negative market players who are being squeezed by aggressive high-frequency and computerized trading. Volume has been light the whole way, and there's very little in the way of any strong leadership.
It is never easy to be very trusting of light-volume V-shaped bounces, but this one has been even more challenging than usual, as we become very quickly overbought and start hitting substantial overhead resistance. We finally paused at 1120 of the S&P 500 Wednesday, but it's been a one-way ride for a week.
In addition to the lopsided action, the primary fundamental explanation for the rally is that Europe is making progress finding a solution for its banking and sovereign debt problems. Maybe so, but there are still a substantial number of obstacles to any real solution; however, the headlines have been spun in a way that makes it sound like the problems may be over soon, and that is helping to provide strong underlying support for now.
What has made this action particularly hard to trust is how lopsided and manipulated it has felt. We have not had any of the normal ebb and flow that you usually see as market players debate the pros and cons of the market. It has been a one-way train, and everyone wants to know how much further they can ride before reality sets in.
I think of this sort of action like a Ponzi scheme. There is no particular reason to trust it, but as long as there is a supply of willing buyers who are greedy and afraid of missing out, it will continue. At some point, the most recent buyers will fail to see immediate gains and panic. Then the momentum will shift, but the fear of being left behind can be a major driving force that makes these moves last far longer than seems reasonably.
I don't want to sound overly negative here because if we do pull back and consolidate, we will have a good technical setup. I am optimistic about the market action into the end of the year. We have gone up too far, too fast in the short term and that has left us with a market that doesn't have good entry points or technical setups.
One of the characteristics of the recent move that I have found most notable is how much complaining there has been about the inability to build up long inventory. It has been a joyless move for many as they struggled to find ways to put money to work. It has been even worse for the bears, who have been quick to anticipate a short-term top. This has likely created a big supply of dip buyers who will provide support, so I believe there is a good chance we won't be revisiting the recent lows any time soon.
Skepticism and lack of enthusiasm are a big reason this market has been running so hot, and high-frequency and computerized trading has done a good job of exploiting it. The selling at the close Wednesday was a very slight change in character and we have a little downside follow through this morning, so traders are going to be very watchful for momentum to fizzle out.
With the onset of earnings season today, the market is due for a change of character anyway. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported ahead of the bell and is trading down, but Google's (GOOG) report tonight will likely receive more attention. We are set up well for a sell-the-news reaction to some reports, but the shorts seem to be endlessly squeezed lately and could find themselves in trouble if they are too aggressive.
It is a very tough market to trust, but a good shakeup as earnings season rolls out should provide opportunities.
Bloomberg TV running headlines from Credit Suisse note saying at least 66 of EU's top banks would fail the new stress test
Market talk of a potential UK sovereign downgrade.
Warner Bros. TV, CBS $CBS announce deal with Netflix $NFLX for CW programming
NFLX kauplemas 3% plusspoolel, $ 117 kandis.
NFLX kauplemas 3% plusspoolel, $ 117 kandis.
Slovak Parliament approves expansion of EFSF rescue fund, concludes ratification in all Euro Zone countries
BI kirjutab et, et Soome firma Rovio Entertainment, kellele kuulub väga kuulsaks saanud mäng Angry Birds, plaanib oma firmaga järgmisel aastal börsile tulla.
Firma CMO Peter Vesterbacka ütles Bloombergile, et ettevõte on valmis IPO tegema juba homme, aga reaalselt juhtub see ilmselt aasta pärast.
Rovio Entertainmentil on 150 miljonit aktiivset kasutajat ja küsimusele, kas on ikka tark tegu minna ainult ühe tootega või antud juhul ühe mänguga firmal börsile, vastas Vesterbacka, et Disney alustas must-valge multifilmiga hiirest.
Firma CMO Peter Vesterbacka ütles Bloombergile, et ettevõte on valmis IPO tegema juba homme, aga reaalselt juhtub see ilmselt aasta pärast.
Rovio Entertainmentil on 150 miljonit aktiivset kasutajat ja küsimusele, kas on ikka tark tegu minna ainult ühe tootega või antud juhul ühe mänguga firmal börsile, vastas Vesterbacka, et Disney alustas must-valge multifilmiga hiirest.
Roivo toodete lakmustest. Solarise Apollo pood, Angry Birds nukud letil, erinevates suurustes ja konfiguratsioonis. Jään laua äärde seisma - tuttavad tegelased on. Imetlen plüüspõrsakeste-linnukeste kvaliteeti. KÕIK, kes olid paremalpool teismeiga läksid letist mööda tähelepanu pööramata. KÕIK, kes olid vasakulpool teismeiga jäid seisma, hüüatasid "vaata" / "ohoo", näppisid ja torkisid ning hakkasid nuruma "osta, osta!"
Rovio klientuur kasvab koos Rovioga. Seal on nende raha.
Sead tegid mängus tuttavat sigade-röhkimise heli. Igal linnul oli oma mängust tuttav õige heli.
Rovio klientuur kasvab koos Rovioga. Seal on nende raha.
Sead tegid mängus tuttavat sigade-röhkimise heli. Igal linnul oli oma mängust tuttav õige heli.
Angry Birds linnukestega ja notsukestega sussid teeksid küll maailma revolutsiooni.
Üks lauamängu tootja peaks varsti tulema Angry Birds lauamänguga turule. Põhimõte on sama. Ma parem ei räägi reaalsetest Angry Birds isetehtud tortidest. Enne söömist tuleb päriselt vastaseid rakulkast tulistada.
Üks lauamängu tootja peaks varsti tulema Angry Birds lauamänguga turule. Põhimõte on sama. Ma parem ei räägi reaalsetest Angry Birds isetehtud tortidest. Enne söömist tuleb päriselt vastaseid rakulkast tulistada.
Täna peale turu sulgumist teatab oma kolmanda kvartali tulemused internetihiid Google (GOOG). Kes mäletab, siis teine kvartal pakkus investoritele meeldiva üllatuse ja aktsia rallis peale tulemusi ligi 100 punkti ehk $ 625 tasemeni.
Konsensus ootab kasumiks aktsia kohta $ 8,77 ja saab näha, millist laadi üllatus aktsial täna varuks on, sest GOOG kaupleb hetkel ainult natuke kõrgemal kui kvartal tagasi.
Konsensus ootab kasumiks aktsia kohta $ 8,77 ja saab näha, millist laadi üllatus aktsial täna varuks on, sest GOOG kaupleb hetkel ainult natuke kõrgemal kui kvartal tagasi.
GOOG tulemustega väljas ja võib öelda, et investorid ei pidanud seekordki pettuma ja aktsia taaskord kauplemas $ 600 taseme all, 7,5 % plusspoolel.
Google reports Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $9.72 vs. the $8.77 Capital IQ consensus; net rev (including TAC) $7.51 bln vs. $7.21 bln consensus (558.99 +10.49)
Gross rev (excluding traffic acquisition costs) $9.72 bln vs. the $9.45 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
Google reports Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $9.72 vs. the $8.77 Capital IQ consensus; net rev (including TAC) $7.51 bln vs. $7.21 bln consensus (558.99 +10.49)
Gross rev (excluding traffic acquisition costs) $9.72 bln vs. the $9.45 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
MCHP
Microchip Technology Inc Guides Q2 $0.45-0.47 v $0.52e, Rev $340.6M v $362Me ($0.50-0.54, Rev $352-371M prior guidance)
http://www.streetinsider.com/Guidance/Microchip+%28MCHP%29+See+Q2+Revs+of+$340.6M+vs.+$362M+Consensus%3B+EPS+Below+Views/6855538.html
Päris karmid numbrid
Microchip Technology Inc Guides Q2 $0.45-0.47 v $0.52e, Rev $340.6M v $362Me ($0.50-0.54, Rev $352-371M prior guidance)
http://www.streetinsider.com/Guidance/Microchip+%28MCHP%29+See+Q2+Revs+of+$340.6M+vs.+$362M+Consensus%3B+EPS+Below+Views/6855538.html
Päris karmid numbrid