Kui nüüd tulla tagasi börside juurde, siis hoolimata ELi ja IMFi triljoni dollari suurusest abipaketist on euro viimastel päevadel kõvasti müüki saanud. Täna on EUR/USD veel 0.5% allapoole liikunud ja läheb hoogsalt eelmise nädala põhjadele 1.252 taseme juures. Euro kukkumine on täna ka Euroopa aktsiaturgudel müügisurvet suurendanud ja EUR/USDi eelmise nädala põhjadest läbi kukkumine tooks turgudele ilmselt veelgi närvilisust:
Seoses Euroopa võlaprobleemide, Hiina majanduse jahutamise ja dollari kallinemisega on viimastel nädalatel toorainetes kasumivõtmist olnud (v.a kuld, mis on uutele tippudele liikunud). Goldman Sachsi hinnangul ei oma antud riskid aga toorainetele piisavalt negatiivset mõju, et oma nägemust muuta ja praegust korrektsiooni soovitatakse ostmiseks kasutada:
“Although we believe that policy concerns should not be dismissed, we believe that risk/reward is now strongly in favor of long positions, particularly in the context of the improving macro environment. As a result, we would generally view the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity for commodities. We remain most constructive on crude oil, copper and precious metals, with copper in particular looking particularly attractive post the recent severe sell-off.”
Kui eile tutvustas uusi eelarve kärpeid Hispaania, siis FT andmetel on täna seda tegemas Portugal. Väidetavalt plaanitakse tõsta nii käibe- kui tulumaksu ja vähendada poliitikute palku. Selle tulemusena peaks eelarve puudujääk vähenema 2.1 miljardi euro võrra:
The new measures are designed to reduce the budget deficit by an additional €2.1bn, from 9.4 per cent of gross domestic product in 2009 to 7 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2013. Portugal’s original deficit target for this year was 8.3 per cent of GDP. (link)
PIGSi eelarve puudujäägi vähenemise valguses hakkab üha kehvemini välja nägema USA fiskaalpilt. Ilmselt on ka seal varsti oodata suuri kulude kärpimisi. Siin näiteks suure võlakoormuse all vaevleva Kalifornia kuberneri Schwarzeneggeri pressisekretäri sellel nädalal antud kommentaar:
"What you can expect generally is no taxes and terrible cuts, absolutely terrible cuts... We're not going to get through the deficit we have without some really tough decisions and some really terrible cuts." (link)
Kui nüüd eurotsooni teemadel jätkata, siis juhtusin peale kahele graafikule.
Heites pilk graafiku viimasele otsale, siis võib järeldada, et turud on peale ELi ja IMFi nii-öelda päästeprogrammi avalikustamist veidi rahunenud, mis on kergitanud ka USA võlakirjade tulususe määrasid.
Samuti on "populaarsust" kogumas riskantsemad väärtpaberid.
Goldman Sachs lisas täna U.S. Steeli oma nii nimetatud "conviction buy" nimekirja. Varasem GSi poolt määratud hinnasiht oli $73.
U.S. Steel (sümbol: X) aktsiagraafik (Bloomberg Terminal)
27. aprillil avaldas ettevõte majandustulemused, millest on võõrkeeles lühida kokkuvõtte teinud Briefing.com
"On its earnings call, co says its utilization rates have strengthened from very low levels in 1H09. Flat-rolled segment utilization rose to 73% from 64% in Q4. European results improved relative to Q4 due to higher shipments. However prices were $50/ton lower due to currency fluctuations. Its Tubular segment saw increased shipments. Although tubular prices decreased relative to Q4 due to product mix as welded product shipments more than doubled. Co expects $560 mln in cap-ex for 2010... Co is seeing healthy order rates for most of its end markets. In Europe, imports are low historically. Its tubular segment is seeing increased order rates and a decline in OCTG inventory levels.... Co says in recent weeks, it is seeing strong operating performance. Co was asked about its met coal position. Co says is confident it will get supply at a decent cost. Co was asked about its spot/contract split. In North American flat-rolled, its firm contract commitments are about 20% of its business, should stay around that level for rest of 2010. About 30% is pure spot. Co says on the tube side, it is seeing a 50-50 mix between welded and seamless; this could be the case for the balance of 2010. In Europe, contract is 30% or less."
USA indeksite futuurid on päeva alustamas väikese, ca 0.2% kuni 0.3%lise miinusega. Euro on dollari vastu nõrgenemist jätkanud ning tänase päeva miinuseks seal ca 0.5%. Naftabarreli hind on sellge juunilepingu puhul kukkunud juba $74.3 peale ja juuli lepingul $79 peale.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.94% Pantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.02% Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0.60% Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.59% Rootsi OMX 30 N/A (börs suletud) Venemaa MICEX -1.22% Poola WIG -0.01%
Aasia turud: Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.18% Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.04% Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.06% Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.91% Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.03% Tai Set 50 -1.14% India Sensex 30 +0.41%
Don't Focus on 'Cause' and 'Effect' By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 5/13/2010 8:16 AM EDT
The complete lack of evidence is the surest sign that the conspiracy is working. -- Unknown.
Yesterday morning I wrote about the market's inclination for "V"-shaped bounces and the role that computerized trading probably played in creating that action. Apparently the machines don't like to be discussed, because they obviously conspired to shut down my trading for about 10 hours yesterday.
I have my electricity and Internet connection back this morning ... and even more respect for the power of the machines. Here we are once again with a very impressive bounce on declining volume that is cutting through overhead resistance like a hot knife through butter. The machines teased us a little bit with some weakness on Wednesday afternoon, but yesterday it was a steady plodding straight back up that rolled over the doubters and skeptics for about the 50th time in last year or so.
The speed with which complacency returns is remarkable. The worries that plagued us last week about European sovereign debt are now forgotten, and there no longer seems to be any economic worry of note. Last week apparently was just a minor hiccup in the never-ending bull market.
The bulls have an endless supply of reasons this bullish action should continue unabated. They have been right, so it obviously doesn't pay to question the assertions about positive fundamentals. I believe the market move is being driven by structural things like liquidity, low interest rates, computerized trading and other changes in the market and its players more than economics and fundamentals.
Pundits who write about the market always want to find clear and direct causative relationships. The want a nice clear headline that says "The market went up because [X] ," so they look at the headlines about Europe, employment, retail sales, housing numbers or whatever, and they explain the positive action with those factors. But if we were going down, they would be using the same reasons to explain the downside.
The news doesn't drive the market. The market drives the news, and with the market acting in such a positive manner, all news is good news.
My point is that we shouldn't be too focused on looking for cause-and-effect relationships between the market and the news. We can debate fundamentals, but it doesn't give us much clarity about which way the market is going. This market still has an inclination to go up, and we have to respect that -- no matter how we may view the macroeconomic conditions.
Technical overhead and low volume haven't mattered much to this market for a very long time. I've tried to explain why that is the case, but it can be hard to accept because it smacks so much of manipulation. The technical action simply is not very logical, which makes it very easy to think your way out of some good trades. Nonetheless, our goal is to navigate the action as best we can. When the rules of gravity no longer seem to apply, then we have to accept that.
Overseas markets were almost all positive last night and we have a slightly positive open on the way. Gold is pulling back and we have weekly unemployment claims coming up to provide a little premarket jiggle. ----------------------------- Briefing.com: Ülespoole avanevad:
Other news: TGB +11.2% (entered into a gold stream transaction with Franco-Nevada Corporation; upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), CWS +7.8% (continued momentum following earnings earlier this week), WRC +5.6% (announces five mln share repurchase program, represents 11.3% of outstanding shares), LXU +5.2% (will replace Rock-Tenn in the S&P SmallCap 600 index ), NEXM +4.8% (announces pre-clinical study showing Vitaros significantly promotes wound healing), EBAY +4.0% (still checking), SLE +3.0% (agrees to sell its 51% stake in the Godrej Sara Lee Ltd. joint venture to Godrej Consumer Products Ltd), CLNE +2.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), S +2.2% (priced 4G HTC EVO 4G phone that will be available in all Sprint retail channels; upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), DECK +2.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BIDU +1.7% (China Real Estate Info announces strategic cooperation with Baidu), HLF +1.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), RNN +1.1% (to Initiate Zoraxel Phase IIb Trial for Treatment of Erectile Dysfunction), RKT +1.0% (light volume; will replace Varian in the S&P MidCap 400 index), .
Analyst comments: DVAX +8.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush), HAL +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital), X +2.5% (added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman ), MS +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital), AVT +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PBH -9.0% (light volume), WEN -4.7%, JST -4.1%, PSSI -3.8%, CSCO -2.9%, JACK -2.7% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), URBN -2.7%, TEF -2.5%, KSS -2.4%, EJ -1.8%, IOC -1.7% (light volume), DRYS -1.6%, SLW -1.2%.
M&A news: SAP -0.8% (SAP AG confirms it will acquire Sybase for $65/share).
Other news: AMED -7.1% (still checking), FCH -5.8% (filed for $201.25 mln common stock offering), DHT -5.2% (filed for a $200 mln mixed shelf offering), RPT -5.1% (announces a 6 mln share common shares of beneficial interest offering), WES -4.6% (announces public offering of 4 mln common units), SLRC -3.6% (announces secondary offering of 5.89 mln shares on behalf of selling stockholders).
Analyst comments: RAS -4.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital), SHPGY -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan ), COF -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie ), TEVA -0.7% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), MT -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS ),
Järgmisel nädalal, võimalik, et juba esmaspäeval teatab SEC 6. mai paanilisest börsimüügist ajendatuna uued reeglid selliste paanikamüükide tulevaseks vältimiseks. Spekuleeritud on üksikaktsiatele kohustusliku ajutise kauplemispeatamise tegemist - seda, kuhu see protsentuaalne piir jääb, ei ole hetkel teada (räägitud nii 10%st kui ka 25%st) ning samuti ei ole teada, kui pikk see kohustuslik paus sellisel juhul oleks (mõned sekundid, minutid, tunnid?). Üks link ka selleteemalisele artiklile.
