Börsipäev 13 -14. okt

Investeerimine
1

Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) sulgus reedel uuel 52 nädala kõrgeimal tasemel.

- Smith Barney alandab üllatuslikult eBay (EBAY) reitingut täna hommikul Hoia pealt Müü peale. Põhjuseks nende arvates liiga suured ootused seoses firma autoäriga. Lühikese ajaga on eBay kasvanud maailma suurimaks kasutatud autode müüjaks, viimase moodustades 30% läbi eBay müüdavate kaupade mahust. Siiski on marginaalid autode puhul oluliselt madalamad kui näiteks elektroonika juures. Turuosaliste ootused võivad olla nende arvates liiga kõrged.
Aja teeb eriti huvitavaks fakt, et firma avaldab oma tulemused sellel nädalal.

- Banc of America alandab DRAM-i tootja Microni (MU) reitingu Neutraalse peale varasema Osta pealt. Hinnasiht kukub $19 juures $11 peale. Micron on viimastel aastatel kohati suutnud näidata käibest suuremaid kvartaalseid kahjumeid.

- SoundView alandab Texas Instrumentsi (TXN) reitingut Turu tootlust ületavalt (Outperform) Neutraalse peale. Põhjuseks kõrge valuatsioon. Hinnasihiks jääb $27. Mitte eriti mõjukas reitingualandus ning selle peale kukkumine räägiks turuosaliste müügisoovist

- Hüpoteeklaenude andjad olid reedel tugevalt rohelises. Põhjuseks USA 3. suurima tegija Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC) uudis selle kohta, et Q3 tulemused tulevad oodatust paremad. Kui varem prognoosis firma $13-15 KASUMIT AKTSIA KOHTA, siis nüüd oodatakse numbrit üle $15. Tundub, et veel on veidi vara sektori "maha kirjutada". Koos ülejäänud hüpoteeklaenude andjatega ronis jõudsalt (+10%) ülespoole ka E-Loan (EELN). Selle firma teemal saab täpsemalt lugeda LHV Pro all. Täna hommikul on EELN 4-5% sulgemishinnast tõusnud ning kaupleb $4.10-4.15 tasemel.

Paljusin Kristjani vaadata ka aktsiate tehnilist pilti:

*Ise veel E-Loani (EELN) aktsiad ei oma.

- Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et konkurendid hakkavad Inteli (INTC) kandadele astuma. Esiteks loomulikult Advanced Mirco Devices (AMD). Sellele järgnevad Transmeta (TMTA) oma Crusoe ning Efficeoniga ja Sun Micro (SUNW) koos Fujiga plaanivad ka oma protsessoritega välja tulla.

- Qualcomm (QCOM)-i juht avaldab Reutersi vahendusel arvamust, et ei näe ebatavaliselt suuri mobiiltelefonide laoseise.

- Piper Jaffray teatas, et tõstab Applied Materialsi (AMAT) 2004. aasta prognoose konsensusest kõrgemale. Tellimused eelkõige aasiast peaksid 2004. aasta esimeses pooles tulemusi kergitama.

- Motorola (MOT) tulemused tulid täna hommikul oodatust paremad. Aktsiad kauplevad 5% kõrgemal reedestest sulgemishinnast.

- Gary B. Smith:


- Revshark:

Good morning. I hope everyone had a relaxing and enjoyable weekend and is ready for a very busy week. The focus this week is earnings, which kick off tomorrow in earnest with companies such as Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq) reporting. Motorola (MOT:NYSE) has moved up its earnings report to today, which is typically a positive sign.

The market is always driven to some extent by expectations but this week they become particularly important. The warnings season has been very mild, with few warnings of note. Maybe companies simply did a good job in lowering views or maybe the economy really did uptick in the quarter. Whatever the case, investors are coming in to earnings season looking for solid reports and upbeat forecasts for the future.

Of course, as soon as investors start feeling optimistic that earnings results and forward estimates are likely to be solid, they help create a sell-the-news dynamic. When expectations are high, simply meeting them is often a disappointment, especially when the market has been strong in anticipation of good numbers.

So we have a very interesting game of psychology shaping up. Last week we saw a solid report from Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq), no significant warnings and very good retail sales reports. Things look pretty solid but the problem is that the better the news, the higher the expectations become and the greater the likelihood for disappointment. If Motorola, Intel and Merrill Lynch knock the cover off the ball, the companies that follow are suddenly faced with having to report similarly strong reports or they risk disappointing investors.

The technical picture is also at a key juncture. The S&P 500 has been doing battle with important resistance at 1040 for a while now. A breakout above that level on Thursday failed but there is now a fairly good base, which will help support another attempt at a breakout to a new high.

The biggest technical negative is that the bounce since the beginning of October has left us a bit extended. After the sharp dip at the end of September we moved right back to the highs in a V-like fashion. That is not the healthiest way to move to new highs but a few days of flat action have helped make things a little less overbought.

We have some Monday morning optimism to kick off the week. Overseas markets were mostly higher. The bond market is closed for Columbus Day. Gold and oil are trading down a bit while the dollar is holding steady. There are a number of upgrades, particular in the software sector, but eBayM (EBAY:Nasdaq) is trading down on a downgrade. We'll have to see how the very strong Internet sector reacts to that news.

The fact that analysts are busy with positive comments and market participants are feeling safe and secure shouldn't make you comfortable. The market acts best when it has a wall of worry to climb and there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of that at the moment.


Futuurid: Naz 0.53% Sp 0.38%

2

Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

- Morgan Stanley alandab Nvidia (NVDA) selle kvartali ning 2004/2005. prognoose. Siiski jäävad need kõrgemale üldisest konsensusest. 2004E EPS MS-i järgi on $0.52 konsensuse olles $0.50 ning 2005E EPS $0.90 vs $0.65 konsensust. Põhjuseks Xbox-i oodatud langus. Firma jätab reitinguks Overweight. Nende sõnul on NVDA tegelik kasumiteenimise võime $0.60-$1.00 (EPS) kõrgem praegustest tulemustest. Lisaks sellele kauplevad aktsiad 70% allpool ülejäänud tehnoloogia valuatsioonist.

- Hüpoteeklaenude andjad/vahendajad tõusid ka eile. E-Loan (EELN) tegi veel ühe +10% päeva ning purustas Kristjani eile näidatud $4 taseme juba eelturul. Raske öelda, kaua see ralli kesta võib. Ise EELN-i aktsiaid veel ei oma, kuid palju õnne neile julgetele kes ostsid aktsiaid kui need LHV Pro all fookuse alla jõudsid. Ilmselt on ettevaatlikus minu poolt praegustes tingimustes veidi liigne olnud. (Märksõnad: CC, COMS). 23. Oktoober on päev, mil EELN annab oma 2004. aasta prognoosid. Tõenäoliselt tuleb 2004. eelmisest väiksema kasumiga aasta..

Palusin Kristjanil ka täna EELN-i teemal arvamust avaldada:

- EMC (EMC) teatas, et ostab ära suurima dokumendihaldusega tegeleva firma Documentumi (DCTM). See võib olla mõnes mõttes heaks uudiseks ka sektori väiksematele mängijatele nagu näiteks Interwoven (IWOV), millest Oliver Ait kirjutas mõne nädala eest oma BusinessWeeki kolumni all. Tavaliselt tõusevad sektori muud mängijad selliste tehningute puhul veidi kaasa.

- Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et USA ravimiamet võib lähiajal (isegi täna) välja tulla teatega, mis lubab koopiarvimite valmistajatele kiiremaid võimalusi oma toodetega turule tulla. See on neg. maiguga uudis suurte farmaatsiafirmade jaoks. Koopiaravimite valmistajad võivad aga saada pos tõuks. Firmad nagu IPXL, ADRX, TEVA, MYL jt. (Mainiksin veel, et näiteks Schering-Plough (SGP) puhul erilist koopiaravimite riski hetkel ei ole).

- Veel kirjutab Wall Street Journal pos. maiguga artikli United Technologies (UTX) nimelistest firmast. Tegemist on peamisest kaitsetööstuses tegutseva ettevõttega, mis vähemalt P/E järgi kaupleb oma konkurentidest 20% madalamal. Samas aga tulemused on firmal konkurentidest paremad. Viimasel ajal on firma meedia läbi püüdnud rohkem esile tõusta ning analüütikud soovitavad aktsiaid osta.

- Revshark:

The most surprising thing about the market's continued rally is the confidence and vigor of the bulls. The bulls have had many good reasons to be timid and/or cautious over the last six months.

But despite an onslaught of arguments about such things as valuation, a weak dollar, a jobless economic recovery, high speculative action and slowing consumer spending, the bulls continue to buy and drive the market steadily higher. The bulls have applied themselves and their cash and have overcome their obstacles.

The big question now is whether earnings season will finally give the bears some relief. Will investors become more defensive and lock in profits as earnings reports begin to hit? Are expectations too high and the bulls too confident? We'll have some clues today as some major reports roll in. In the early going, both Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) and Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE) have beaten estimates handily, and both are trading up in the premarket.

Merrill Lynch should be particularly instructive to watch today. It's already trading at a 12-month high, and has been rallying sharply for some time. The report looks very good and there doesn't appear to be any reason to sell the stock other than to take profits. Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) reports after the close tonight, and that will be another excellent test for whether the sell-the-news mentality is going to kick in.

Even if a such a reaction does kick in, how far will this market pull back? If the bears are anticipating a freefall and a huge collapse, they're likely to be disappointed. The key thing to remember about this rally is that there is a huge group of investors who have missed much of it. They've been skeptical and mistrusting. They have been waiting and waiting for the chance to buy at lower prices and have not been given the opportunity. They are lurking under this market and hoping for that sell-the-news reaction, which will allow them to finally deploy more capital.

These folks who have not fully participated in this rally are going to be even more anxious as the end of the year approaches. If we see some sort of October selloff, the buyers would love to use it to position themselves for a big year-end run. That would be a simple and convenient scenario, but so far we haven't seen any seasonal weakness that so many have been hoping for over the last couple months.

The bottom line is that the recent strength in this market has set us up for some sort of sell-the-news reaction to earnings, but the dip-buyers are such a dominant force that they are unlikely to let the selling go too far. Some caution on the upside is called for, but aggressive shorting will probably continue to be extremely difficult at this juncture.

Despite the good earnings noted above, early indications are mixed. Overseas markets were generally negative, but the dollar strengthened and gold traded off slightly. Investors are contemplating a sell-the-news reaction to earnings and staying cautious


Futuurid: Naz -0.25% SP unch

3
>Bettie Re: Börsipäev 15. okt
Et mõeldud ikka täna lugemiseks ?

>- Veel kirjutab Wall Street Journal
Mul miskipärast Wall Street Journal online ei ole hetkel kättesaadav ,kas need arvamused seal
on ka veebis enne börsi avanemist kättesaadavad ?
4
Ifc,

Saab ikka (http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB106609334997515700-search,00.html?collection=wsjie%2F30day&vql_string=United+Technologies%3Cin%3E%28article%2Dbody%29 )


IWOV üleval nagu arvata oli.

LHV Pro pick Viad (VVI) veidi all konkurendi FDC tulemuste peale.

Schering-Plough (SGP) vähemalt veel rohelises geneerikute uudise peale

E-Loan (EELN) puhkab veidi pärast kaheäevast tõusu.


sB


5
Täna õhtul pärast börsipäeva avaldab oma majandustulemused Intel (INTC). Ja see tehnoloogigant liigutab oma tulemustega pea alati kogu turgu. Olukord turul paistab selline, et ma ei usu kuidagi, et Intel prognoosidele alla jääks, kuid ühtlasi kardan, et Inteli head tulemused ei pruugi olla piisavalt head.

Sest vaadake ettevõtte valuatsiooni. P/S on koguni 6.0. Kogu sektori keskmine on samas vaid 2.46.

Intel peaks järgmisel aastal (2004) teenima dollari kasumit aktsia kohta, sellisel juhul oleks P/E 30 juures, aga ainult sellisel juhul. Mina näiteks ei usu, et seda dollarit teenida suudetakse ja praegune P/E 58 on suhteliselt kallis.
6
viimasel ajal on kombeks et tulemuste peale turg tõuseb äkki ja siis päeva lõpuks antakse enamik tõusu käest ära
kui nii edasi läheb siis kas viimane aeg shortida?
7
Praegu paistab minevat minu ennustuse järgi - nii Intel kui Novellus tulid välja vägagi korralike tulemustega ja Intel paistis tõstvat ka järgmise kvartali prognoose, kuid rallit pole see veel toonud - Intel on järelturul +0.7% ja Novellus -0.16%.

Kindlasti kuulatakse väga hoolega conference calli - mida siis on ettevõtte juhtidel kommentaariks öelda.