Uudiseid laiast maailmast vahelduseks. Ajal, mil inflatsioon on maailmas järele andmas, pole ta seda mitte tegemas Aafrikas, Zimbabwes. Kui kolm nädalat tagasi lasti seal ringlusesse ZW$10 miljardi suurune rahatäht, mile eest sai osta 20 pätsi leiba, siis täna kõigest kolm nädalat hiljem ei saa selle eest poolt pätsigi…
Esmaspäevaks on valmis trükitud uued veelgi suurima nominaalväärtusega rahatähed - vastavalt ZW$20 ja ZW$50 miljardit. Inflatsioonimäär riigis ca 230 miljonit protsenti aastas… ehk ca sama palju, kui kiiresti jõuab riik rahamasinatega uusi kupüüre juurde trükkida.
Alles augustis korjati rahatähtedelt 10 nulli tagant ära ning ringluses olid vähegi viisakamad 10 000 ja 20 000sed kupüürid… Kuid nüüd on nullid loetud kuudega nobedalt kupüüridele tagasi jõudnud.
Kui igasugune usaldus oma valuuta vastu puudub, siis miks nad ei hakka näiteks ühepoolselt dollarit või eurot kasutama?
Kohalikud elanikud tegelikult juba arveldamisel kasutavad välisvaluutasid (nii palju, kui seda kätte saab) ning samuti on valitsus tasapisi välisvaluuta kasutamist tolereerima hakanud. Sügisel anti luba ca 1000le poele ning mobiilileviteenust pakkuvatele ettevõtetele luba oma kaupu välisvaluutas müüa. Kuid selge on see, et raha trükimasinate julm väärkohtlemine 365/24/7 pideva printimise näol seda riiki tänastest probleemidest välja ei aita.
Selle nädala tähtsamad USA majandusraportid. Lisaks oleme tasapisi sisenemas tulemuste hooaega.
14. jaanuaril kell 15.30 jaemüüjate detsembrikuu näit (ootus -1.1%, ilma autodeta -1.2%). Kell 17.00 teatatakse ettevõtete varude muutuse näit (ootus -0.5%).
15. jaanuaril kell 15.30 tuleb tootjahinnaindeksi detsembrikuu muutus (ootus -1,9% ning tuumikosa ootus +0.1%). Samuti teatatakse esmaste töötu abirahade taotletjate nädalane number. ECB teatab oma intressimääraotsusest.
16. jaanuaril kell 15.30 teatatakse detsembrikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi muutus (ootus -1.0% ning tuumikosal +0.1%). Kell 16.15 tuleb tööstustoodangu raport (ootus -0.8%, novembris oli -0.6%).
14. jaanuaril kell 15.30 jaemüüjate detsembrikuu näit (ootus -1.1%, ilma autodeta -1.2%). Kell 17.00 teatatakse ettevõtete varude muutuse näit (ootus -0.5%).
15. jaanuaril kell 15.30 tuleb tootjahinnaindeksi detsembrikuu muutus (ootus -1,9% ning tuumikosa ootus +0.1%). Samuti teatatakse esmaste töötu abirahade taotletjate nädalane number. ECB teatab oma intressimääraotsusest.
16. jaanuaril kell 15.30 teatatakse detsembrikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi muutus (ootus -1.0% ning tuumikosal +0.1%). Kell 16.15 tuleb tööstustoodangu raport (ootus -0.8%, novembris oli -0.6%).
Kuidas hästipäevitunu Valgesse majja asumine oletatavaid kehvi tulemusi võiks tasandada?
Eesti esikonjukturist Marje Josing just praegu ETV hommikuprogrammis.
Ristis kindlad ennustajad sharlatanideks. Aga mis on ebalevast analüütikust kasu. Bloomberg räägib päev läbi majandusest ja ei ütle midagi. Andmed eilse päeva kohta eriti ei aita. Vaja oleks kindlat visiooni mida homne toob.
Hommik Aasias jälle punane.
Hommik Aasias jälle punane.
Peale reedest tööjõuraportit muutus Deutcshe Bank USA neljanda kvartali majanduskasvu suhtes oluliselt karusemaks. Kui varasemalt oodati 4.5% suurust kvartalimiinust, siis reedel langetati ootused -6.5%-ni. Lisati veel, et ka -8% suurune majanduskasv on võimalik, kuid see sõltub käesoleva nädala jaemüüginumbritest ning varude tasemest.
Tulemuste hooajal teeb traditsiooniliselt otsa lahti Alcoa (AA) ning selle alumiiniumi gigandi numbrid tulevad täna pärast turu sulgemist. Ettevõttelt oodatake EPSi osas 10 sendilist kahjumit ning müügitulu suuruses $5.26 miljardit.
Kolmapäeva eeluturul on oma tulemustega platsis AMR, neljapäeva järelturul Intel (INTC) ning reedesel eelturul Sony (SNE). Järgmisel nädalal on tulemuste teatajate nimekiri juba aga oluliselt suurem.
Kolmapäeva eeluturul on oma tulemustega platsis AMR, neljapäeva järelturul Intel (INTC) ning reedesel eelturul Sony (SNE). Järgmisel nädalal on tulemuste teatajate nimekiri juba aga oluliselt suurem.
USA börs alustab kauplemist indeksite ca nullis olemisega. Pihta on aga taaskordselt saanud nafta hind, millele kauplemispeäva alguseks juba kogunenud miinust üle 6% ning barreli hinnaks $38.3.
Saksamaa DAX -0.32%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.77%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.45%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.86%
Venemaa MICEX +2.80%
Poola WIG -1.11%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.83%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.24%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.74%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.99%
Tai Set 50 -1.83%
India Sensex 30 -3.15%
Keep Plugging Away
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/12/2009 8:17 AM EST
If you suffer, thank God! It is a sure sign that you are alive.
-- Elbert Hubbbard
The great challenge of bear markets is that they wear you out rather than scare you out. Many folks are under the misimpression that a bear market comes to end in a sudden burst of panic, like when we crashed in 1987 -- that we are purged of the poison that was plaguing as, regroup and then are on our way to recovery.
The reality is that bear markets grind you down. They offer up some hope, like the Santa Rally we had around the end of the year, and just when folks begin to feel a little more confidence and a bit more bold, we start to struggle again. The fragile confidence that was helping is shattered, and back down we go.
The most debilitation aspect of a bear market isn't the big point loss -- it's the cycle of hope and despair. That's what causes investors to feel greatly frustrated and to give up. They feel like they will never be able to make money again and see no way to regain the money they have already lost.
I constantly tell people that the key to success in the market is to keep on plugging away. That doesn't mean forcing trades every day. It means having a mindset that is prepared for dreary and depressing action and staying constant in the belief that better days will eventual come.
It is extremely difficult to stick with a market that has hurt you and then hits you again with a series of failed rallies that turn out to be false hope. We are so anxious to finally make some money in an uptrend that the failed rallies hurt even more and cause more folks to head for the sidelines.
Eventually, that's what brings the bear market to an end, but it is with a whimper and won't be evident until well after the fact. In the meantime, people are going to keep on declaring that we are on the verge of a major turn, and that will accelerate the cycle of despair even more.
I don't mean to sound gloomy and depressing, but I want you to be prepared for a long grind. I'm absolutely positive that this market will offer some great opportunities, but you have to be mentally prepared to deal with some tough times. If you stay with it, you will be rewarded, but as with all good things in life, it will take time and effort.
We have a slightly soft open on the way as the news flow continues to be downright depressing. There just isn't much good in the headlines right now. Oil and gold are down and overseas markets are mostly weak.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VOXX +25.1%, DGLY +14.7%, HOLX +6.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Jefferies)... M&A news: EYE +141.2% (ABT to acquire EYE for $22 per share in cash), EXAS +56.6% (Sequenom proposes to acquire EXACT Sciences for $1.50 per share or ~$41 mln), ALDN +17.2% (enters into merger agreement with Vector Capital Affiliate; shareholders to receive $11.50 per share)... Select drybulk shippers showing strength: NM +6.4%, DRYS +4.5%, DSX +3.5%, EXM +2.7%, GNK +2.5%, EGLE +2.1%... Select European financials trading higher: RBS +5.2%, BCS +3.4%, CS +1.9%, LYG +1.0% (UK Treasury to hold 43.4% of Lloyds Banking Group - DJ)... Other news: HGSI +28.2% (reports "substantial progress towards commercialization"; issues upside FY09 rev guidance, expects less than $25 mln in cash burn for '09), MITI +11.9% (enters into agreement for solid tumor bite antibody with Bayer Schering Pharma; receives approx $6 mln), APWR +9.2% (still checking), ACAP +3.1% (mentioned positively in Barron's), MS +2.9% (reports indicate MS and C are closer to a deal in which Morgan Stanley would pay cash for a stake in Citigroup's Smith Barney APEI +2.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), RMBS +2.3% (modestly rebounding after Friday's late plunge), LEN +1.1% (issues statement; says the "dissemination of false statements resulted in selling of unprecedented 58 mln shares")... Analyst comments: PALM +6.7% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup), PFE +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
M&A news: LNY -35.2% (announces termination of merger agreement and will pursue alternative financing)... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: DROOY -8.4%, HL -5.1%, BBL -4.8%, NEM -4.6%, RTP -4.4% (postpones $2.15 bln Corumba expansion - DJ), BHP -4.1%, AUY -3.8%, ABX -3.6%, AAUK -2.9%, GLD -2.7%, GFI -2.2%, GOLD -2.0%, RIO -1.8%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with weakness in crude: BTU -4.6%, PBR -2.8%, BP -2.3%, RDS.A -1.4%... Other news: YRCW -11.7% (Fitch downgrades YRC Worldwide's IDR to 'CCC'; rating watch negative), WIT -11.6% (discloses Vendor Status with World Bank), UBS -5.0% (to report record CHF20 bln 2008 loss, according to report - DJ), C -2.8% (Citigroup Board backs CEO as outlook worsens - WSJ), ENL -2.5% (still checking), AZN -1.9% (still checking)... Analyst comments: HOG -12.5% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), AA -5.0% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche), NIHD -4.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), STM -3.4% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), ALV -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), FTE -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), BNI -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), AZO -1.7% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/12/2009 8:17 AM EST
If you suffer, thank God! It is a sure sign that you are alive.
-- Elbert Hubbbard
The great challenge of bear markets is that they wear you out rather than scare you out. Many folks are under the misimpression that a bear market comes to end in a sudden burst of panic, like when we crashed in 1987 -- that we are purged of the poison that was plaguing as, regroup and then are on our way to recovery.
The reality is that bear markets grind you down. They offer up some hope, like the Santa Rally we had around the end of the year, and just when folks begin to feel a little more confidence and a bit more bold, we start to struggle again. The fragile confidence that was helping is shattered, and back down we go.
The most debilitation aspect of a bear market isn't the big point loss -- it's the cycle of hope and despair. That's what causes investors to feel greatly frustrated and to give up. They feel like they will never be able to make money again and see no way to regain the money they have already lost.
I constantly tell people that the key to success in the market is to keep on plugging away. That doesn't mean forcing trades every day. It means having a mindset that is prepared for dreary and depressing action and staying constant in the belief that better days will eventual come.
It is extremely difficult to stick with a market that has hurt you and then hits you again with a series of failed rallies that turn out to be false hope. We are so anxious to finally make some money in an uptrend that the failed rallies hurt even more and cause more folks to head for the sidelines.
Eventually, that's what brings the bear market to an end, but it is with a whimper and won't be evident until well after the fact. In the meantime, people are going to keep on declaring that we are on the verge of a major turn, and that will accelerate the cycle of despair even more.
I don't mean to sound gloomy and depressing, but I want you to be prepared for a long grind. I'm absolutely positive that this market will offer some great opportunities, but you have to be mentally prepared to deal with some tough times. If you stay with it, you will be rewarded, but as with all good things in life, it will take time and effort.
We have a slightly soft open on the way as the news flow continues to be downright depressing. There just isn't much good in the headlines right now. Oil and gold are down and overseas markets are mostly weak.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VOXX +25.1%, DGLY +14.7%, HOLX +6.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Jefferies)... M&A news: EYE +141.2% (ABT to acquire EYE for $22 per share in cash), EXAS +56.6% (Sequenom proposes to acquire EXACT Sciences for $1.50 per share or ~$41 mln), ALDN +17.2% (enters into merger agreement with Vector Capital Affiliate; shareholders to receive $11.50 per share)... Select drybulk shippers showing strength: NM +6.4%, DRYS +4.5%, DSX +3.5%, EXM +2.7%, GNK +2.5%, EGLE +2.1%... Select European financials trading higher: RBS +5.2%, BCS +3.4%, CS +1.9%, LYG +1.0% (UK Treasury to hold 43.4% of Lloyds Banking Group - DJ)... Other news: HGSI +28.2% (reports "substantial progress towards commercialization"; issues upside FY09 rev guidance, expects less than $25 mln in cash burn for '09), MITI +11.9% (enters into agreement for solid tumor bite antibody with Bayer Schering Pharma; receives approx $6 mln), APWR +9.2% (still checking), ACAP +3.1% (mentioned positively in Barron's), MS +2.9% (reports indicate MS and C are closer to a deal in which Morgan Stanley would pay cash for a stake in Citigroup's Smith Barney APEI +2.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), RMBS +2.3% (modestly rebounding after Friday's late plunge), LEN +1.1% (issues statement; says the "dissemination of false statements resulted in selling of unprecedented 58 mln shares")... Analyst comments: PALM +6.7% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup), PFE +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
M&A news: LNY -35.2% (announces termination of merger agreement and will pursue alternative financing)... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: DROOY -8.4%, HL -5.1%, BBL -4.8%, NEM -4.6%, RTP -4.4% (postpones $2.15 bln Corumba expansion - DJ), BHP -4.1%, AUY -3.8%, ABX -3.6%, AAUK -2.9%, GLD -2.7%, GFI -2.2%, GOLD -2.0%, RIO -1.8%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with weakness in crude: BTU -4.6%, PBR -2.8%, BP -2.3%, RDS.A -1.4%... Other news: YRCW -11.7% (Fitch downgrades YRC Worldwide's IDR to 'CCC'; rating watch negative), WIT -11.6% (discloses Vendor Status with World Bank), UBS -5.0% (to report record CHF20 bln 2008 loss, according to report - DJ), C -2.8% (Citigroup Board backs CEO as outlook worsens - WSJ), ENL -2.5% (still checking), AZN -1.9% (still checking)... Analyst comments: HOG -12.5% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), AA -5.0% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche), NIHD -4.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), STM -3.4% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), ALV -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), FTE -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), BNI -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), AZO -1.7% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein).
To Joel: ArcaBook lõpetas heategevuse. Tänasest . Olen siiani tänulik reaalajas toimuva hea viite eest. Söandan siinkohal mõnd samaväärset viidet paluda.
heinos, võid kasutada ka yahoo finance'it ja seal vasakust tulbast on võimalik leida link "Real Time ECN". Sealt alt on ka võimalik ikkagi rahuldava täpsusega reaalaja hinnainfot saada. Näiteks SPY hinnainfo link on siin.
Ainult, et värskeima data saamiseks tuleb lehekülge uuendada...
Krediiditurgudel on igaljuhul paranemine toimumas - hädavajalik komponent majanduse rööbastele saamiseks. Ettevõtete võlakirjade väljaandmine oli eelmisel nädalal $41 miljardi - see on viimase 8 kuu rekord. Oktoobris, novembris oli see number nulli juures. Samuti on vähenenud ettevõtete ja munitsipaalide võlakirjade tulusused ning ka LIBOR on alla tulnud.
To Joel. tänan! ArcaBook ' is oli hea ülevaade ülevalolevate orderite seisust. YAHOO reaalaaja saiti kasutan hoolsalt tykk aega.
Alcoa prelim ($0.28), ex items vs ($0.10) First Call consensus; revs $5.69 bln vs $5.26 bln First Call consensus
Polegi hull, kui arvestada, et Deutsche Bank tõmbas AA Q4 EPS prognoosi -0.93 peale täna hommikul.