mul sügekevad SKF ja FAZ.
November Core PPI y/y +4.2% vs +4.2% consensus, prior +4.4%
November Retail Sales -1.8% vs -2.0% consensus; prior revised to -2.9% from -2.8%
November Core PPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% consensus
November PPI y/y +0.4% vs +0.2% consensus, prior +5.2%
November Retail Sales ex-autos -1.6% vs -1.8% consensus; prior revised to -2.4% from -2.2%
November PPI m/m -2.2% vs -2.0% consensus
November Retail Sales -1.8% vs -2.0% consensus; prior revised to -2.9% from -2.8%
November Core PPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% consensus
November PPI y/y +0.4% vs +0.2% consensus, prior +5.2%
November Retail Sales ex-autos -1.6% vs -1.8% consensus; prior revised to -2.4% from -2.2%
November PPI m/m -2.2% vs -2.0% consensus
Hope If You Must, but Protect Your Capital
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/12/2008 7:38 AM EST
He that lives upon hope will die fasting.
-- Benjamin Franklin
What makes a bear market so painful for most investors is the inclination to constantly guess when they might end. Getting your hopes up just to be disappointed again takes a much greater emotional toll on investors than just accepting the idea that the struggles may continue for a while.
Nonetheless, Wall Street has always been and always will be a dealer in hope. Without hope, it would be awfully hard to hold on to the funds of investors. Thus, they must always be told that the market is on the verge of recovering its large losses and if they pull out now it will be at the worst possible time. The No. 1 goal of Wall Street isn't to be correct about market direction but to hold on to client assets.
So here we are again, a week after a slew of bottom-calling, and the market is set to open very ugly and test key technical support. The reasons for the weakness are painfully obvious: Auto bailouts fail in the Senate, a massive investment fraud perpetrated by the ex-head of the Nasdaq is uncovered and analysts issue a host of downgrades.
There has been a lot of cheering lately over the ability of the market to shrug off bad news, such as the huge jump in job losses, but the bad news has just kept on flowing, and the buyers just couldn't dismiss all of it. The argument that we have anticipated and priced in the worst is looking problematic this morning as we gap down, but the bulls do have the opportunity to show us once again that they really have seen this coming and are still willing to anticipate the lows and buy into it.
My attitude about the market remains what it has been for a while now: We are in a bear market, and while we will have some countertrend bounces and rallies, we shouldn't constantly be hoping and predicting that we have seen the lows. As I said on Monday morning, that sort of prediction not only isn't helpful, it is dangerous, because it sets you up to get your hopes dashed in a situation just like we are seeing this morning.
Today is going to be a particularly interesting test for the bulls who want to believe that we have already priced in the worst. If they really believe it, they are going to buy this weakness this morning and shrug off this bad news. There still is some technical support before we test the lows of November, which could bring in some buyers, but it's very heavy lifting here.
After digesting this news today, the bulls still have the chance for some end-of-the-year games in the next two weeks, but this market is likely to remain very skittish and nervous. The volatility is not investor-friendly, and I don't expect trading to be easy. We'll navigate as best we can, but above all, also continue to protect that capital.
--------------------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevate aktsiate read on täna hõredad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SHO +4.9%, AEIS +3.5% (light volume)... Other news: EXEL +23.3% (Exelixis and Bristol-Myers enter global collaboration on two novel cancer programs), SHPGY +2.5% (still checking).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WAT -16.6% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, downgraded to Market Perform at Leerink, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen and downgraded to Hold at Baird), MATK -6.7% DHR -4.5%, UTX -2.5%, SMSC -1.8%... Select auto-related names trading lower following WSJ report that rescue bid for Detroit collapses in Senate: GM -26.9% (retains bankruptcy counsel - WSJ), LEA -26.4% (withdraws 2008 guidance; also downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank), JCI -19.7%, F -15.2% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank), CTB -15.1%, SAH -13.2%, GT -10.5%, TM -6.0%... Select financial stocks trading lower: GNW -15.7%, XL -15.4%, NFP -14.6%, LYG -14.6% (HBOS losses won't hit capital adjustments on deal - DJ), RBS -14.1%, BCS -13.4%, RF -8.6%, STD -7.6%, COF -7.2% (initiated with Sell at Deutsche), C -6.6%, CIT -6.6%, JPM -6.0%, CS -5.8%, HBC -5.4%, BAC -5.2% (plans to reduce work force; 30,000 to 35,000 positions over the next three years), UBS -5.1%, WFC -4.5%, DB -4.3%, ING -4.2%, GS -3.9%, BBD -2.7%, USB -2.4%... Select oil/gas related names showing weakness with crude lower: REXX -16.6%, CPE -15.6% (pulling back after this week's 100%+ surge), SD -15.0%, NOV -9.8%, CHK -8.9%, HAL -8.0%, WFT -7.4%, COP -5.3%, SLB -5.2%, PBR -4.8%, BP -4.2%, STO -3.9%, RDS.A -3.9%, TOT -3.0%, XOM -2.5%, CVX -2.2%... Select solar names trading lower: JASO -12.3%, SOL -8.5%, LDK -6.8%, FSLR -6.4% (downgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkEquity), STP -6.4%, SPWRA -4.7%, SOLF -2.8%... Select metals/mining related names showing weakness: FCX -8.9%, PCU -8.5%, MT -5.4%, RIO -4.9%, AUY -3.7%, RTP -3.0%, ABX -2.9%, BHP -2.9%, AAUK -2.9%, AU -2.4%, GOLD 1.9%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EGLE -15.0%, DRYS -13.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), PRGN -9.7%, EXM -9.5%, GNK -8.6%, DSX -5.8%... Other news: ALU -7.9% (announces cost reduction initiatives), GGP -6.2% (Gen Growth Prop faces debt deadline - Washington Post), RIG -3.7% (EQT will replace RIG in S&P 500), LVS -3.6% (drops jobs, bonuses as slump buffets Las Vegas - WSJ), NOK -2.8% (still checking), CMO -2.5% (announces that it will pay Q4 dividend of $0.36, down from prior dividend of $0.55)... Analyst comments: CBI -15.9% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), TRW -11.5% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank), ATPG -8.5% (downgraded to Sell at Calyon), VE -7.0% (downgraded to Underperform at JPMorgan), FWLT -6.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), FLR -6.7% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), JEC -5.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), CAT -5.7% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), EXPD -4.5% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), SWK -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), AXP -3.9% (initiated with Sell at Deutsche), ED -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman-DJ), SAP -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/12/2008 7:38 AM EST
He that lives upon hope will die fasting.
-- Benjamin Franklin
What makes a bear market so painful for most investors is the inclination to constantly guess when they might end. Getting your hopes up just to be disappointed again takes a much greater emotional toll on investors than just accepting the idea that the struggles may continue for a while.
Nonetheless, Wall Street has always been and always will be a dealer in hope. Without hope, it would be awfully hard to hold on to the funds of investors. Thus, they must always be told that the market is on the verge of recovering its large losses and if they pull out now it will be at the worst possible time. The No. 1 goal of Wall Street isn't to be correct about market direction but to hold on to client assets.
So here we are again, a week after a slew of bottom-calling, and the market is set to open very ugly and test key technical support. The reasons for the weakness are painfully obvious: Auto bailouts fail in the Senate, a massive investment fraud perpetrated by the ex-head of the Nasdaq is uncovered and analysts issue a host of downgrades.
There has been a lot of cheering lately over the ability of the market to shrug off bad news, such as the huge jump in job losses, but the bad news has just kept on flowing, and the buyers just couldn't dismiss all of it. The argument that we have anticipated and priced in the worst is looking problematic this morning as we gap down, but the bulls do have the opportunity to show us once again that they really have seen this coming and are still willing to anticipate the lows and buy into it.
My attitude about the market remains what it has been for a while now: We are in a bear market, and while we will have some countertrend bounces and rallies, we shouldn't constantly be hoping and predicting that we have seen the lows. As I said on Monday morning, that sort of prediction not only isn't helpful, it is dangerous, because it sets you up to get your hopes dashed in a situation just like we are seeing this morning.
Today is going to be a particularly interesting test for the bulls who want to believe that we have already priced in the worst. If they really believe it, they are going to buy this weakness this morning and shrug off this bad news. There still is some technical support before we test the lows of November, which could bring in some buyers, but it's very heavy lifting here.
After digesting this news today, the bulls still have the chance for some end-of-the-year games in the next two weeks, but this market is likely to remain very skittish and nervous. The volatility is not investor-friendly, and I don't expect trading to be easy. We'll navigate as best we can, but above all, also continue to protect that capital.
--------------------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevate aktsiate read on täna hõredad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SHO +4.9%, AEIS +3.5% (light volume)... Other news: EXEL +23.3% (Exelixis and Bristol-Myers enter global collaboration on two novel cancer programs), SHPGY +2.5% (still checking).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WAT -16.6% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, downgraded to Market Perform at Leerink, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen and downgraded to Hold at Baird), MATK -6.7% DHR -4.5%, UTX -2.5%, SMSC -1.8%... Select auto-related names trading lower following WSJ report that rescue bid for Detroit collapses in Senate: GM -26.9% (retains bankruptcy counsel - WSJ), LEA -26.4% (withdraws 2008 guidance; also downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank), JCI -19.7%, F -15.2% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank), CTB -15.1%, SAH -13.2%, GT -10.5%, TM -6.0%... Select financial stocks trading lower: GNW -15.7%, XL -15.4%, NFP -14.6%, LYG -14.6% (HBOS losses won't hit capital adjustments on deal - DJ), RBS -14.1%, BCS -13.4%, RF -8.6%, STD -7.6%, COF -7.2% (initiated with Sell at Deutsche), C -6.6%, CIT -6.6%, JPM -6.0%, CS -5.8%, HBC -5.4%, BAC -5.2% (plans to reduce work force; 30,000 to 35,000 positions over the next three years), UBS -5.1%, WFC -4.5%, DB -4.3%, ING -4.2%, GS -3.9%, BBD -2.7%, USB -2.4%... Select oil/gas related names showing weakness with crude lower: REXX -16.6%, CPE -15.6% (pulling back after this week's 100%+ surge), SD -15.0%, NOV -9.8%, CHK -8.9%, HAL -8.0%, WFT -7.4%, COP -5.3%, SLB -5.2%, PBR -4.8%, BP -4.2%, STO -3.9%, RDS.A -3.9%, TOT -3.0%, XOM -2.5%, CVX -2.2%... Select solar names trading lower: JASO -12.3%, SOL -8.5%, LDK -6.8%, FSLR -6.4% (downgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkEquity), STP -6.4%, SPWRA -4.7%, SOLF -2.8%... Select metals/mining related names showing weakness: FCX -8.9%, PCU -8.5%, MT -5.4%, RIO -4.9%, AUY -3.7%, RTP -3.0%, ABX -2.9%, BHP -2.9%, AAUK -2.9%, AU -2.4%, GOLD 1.9%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EGLE -15.0%, DRYS -13.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), PRGN -9.7%, EXM -9.5%, GNK -8.6%, DSX -5.8%... Other news: ALU -7.9% (announces cost reduction initiatives), GGP -6.2% (Gen Growth Prop faces debt deadline - Washington Post), RIG -3.7% (EQT will replace RIG in S&P 500), LVS -3.6% (drops jobs, bonuses as slump buffets Las Vegas - WSJ), NOK -2.8% (still checking), CMO -2.5% (announces that it will pay Q4 dividend of $0.36, down from prior dividend of $0.55)... Analyst comments: CBI -15.9% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), TRW -11.5% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank), ATPG -8.5% (downgraded to Sell at Calyon), VE -7.0% (downgraded to Underperform at JPMorgan), FWLT -6.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), FLR -6.7% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), JEC -5.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), CAT -5.7% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), EXPD -4.5% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), SWK -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), AXP -3.9% (initiated with Sell at Deutsche), ED -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman-DJ), SAP -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies).
WHITE HOUSE SAYS WILLING TO CONSIDER USE OF TARP FUNDS FOR AUTOMAKER AID
Põõsas annab jamatootjatele pappi. Surprise-surprise!
Äkki keegi seletab paari sõnaga mis on 'Giant Ponzi Scheme'?
"suur püramiid-skeem"
Saksamaa DAX -3.7%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -4.5%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -3.6%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -4.5%
Venemaa MICEX -3.7%
Poola WIG -2.4%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -5.6%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -5.5%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.8%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -4.9%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.6%
Tai Set 50 -0.0%
India Sensex 30 +0.5%
US Treasury says stands ready to prevent imminent failure of automakers after Congress fails to act - Reuters
I love the smell of bailout in the morning.
jim, excellent taste. Respect.
Al Bundy skeem näeb midagi samasugust välja. Vahitakse telekat ning kui kuuldakse, et põõsas annab jamatootjatele pappi, saab teleka tagant lahkumata aktsiad ostma tormata.
December Univ of Michigan Sentiment-prelim 59.1 vs 54.5 consensus, prior month 55.3
Kust see üllatus nüüd tuli, et Jüri Põõsas annab tranduletitootjatele raha? See, et see nii peaks minema, oli kirjas absoluutselt IGAS hommikuülevaates, mida ma täna hommikul lugesin.
Karumõmm, ameeriklaste hommik on mõnevõrra hiljem, siit ka Euroopa traderite suur eelis :)
October Business Inventories -0.6% vs -0.2% consensus, prior revised to -0.4% from -0.2%
täna tuleb -8% ära, ma sõin hernesuppi
väga hea
hakkame tööle
hakkame tööle
mehed see lõppeb varrega...