Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Smith Barney kuuldavasti tõstis Nokia (NOK, NOK1V) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale. Nokia on USA eelturul 2-3% plussis.
- Merck & Co (MRK), üks USA ning maailma suurimaid farmaatsiafirmasid sai Prudentiali käest täna hommikul uue ning märksa kõrgema reitingu. Varasema Underweight asemel soovitavad analüütikud MRK-i portfellis Overweight (Ülekaalus) hoida.
Samas teatas aga firma ise, et katkestab III katsefaasis oleva MK-0869 (depresiooniravim) edasised katsed, kuna ravimikandidaat ei näidanud piisavat efektiivsust. Selle peale on aktsia täna hommikul paar-kolm protsenti all.
Usun, et Prudentali analüütikud tegid väga õigesti, et MRK-i reitingut tõstsid. Usun, et mida aeg edasi, seda rohkem hakkame selliseid uudiseid nägema.
- Wall Street Journal kirjutab aktsiatest, mis võivad investeerimisfonde viimasel ajal tabanud skandaalide tõttu müügisurve alla vajuda. Selliseid fondifirmasid nagu näiteks Putnam, Janus, Strong ja Alliance Capital süüdistatakse keelatud tehingute tegemises ning investorid on nendest fondidest oma raha välja võtmas. Kui raha vooldab fondist välja, peab fond oma positsioone müüma. Ülalpool nimetatud fondifirmad omavad suuri osalusi sellistes firmades nagu CMCSA, LEA, ATN ning JNPR (kõigis üle 19% osalus).
- Banc of America analüütikut teatavad täna hommikul, et EchoStar (DISH) on nende Top Pick. Aktsia kukkus eile päris suurelt kui tulemused ei vastanud turuosaliste ootustele. Täna näeme tõenäoliselt põrget.
- Lexicon (LEXG) teatas, et on leinud geeni, mis kontrollib kõrgenenud vererõhku. $5 aktsiast on selle uudise peale saanud kiiresti $6 aktsia.
- Täna õhtul tuleb oma tulemustega välja Applied Materials (AMAT) ning tundub, et turuosalised ootavad konsensusest märksa paremaid numbreid. Ei maksa unustada, et turg on viimased paar päeva alla tulnud.
"That is why you'll never be a great detective, Cato. It's so obvious that it could not possibly be a trap."
--Chief Inspector Jacques Clouseau
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVshark:
After hitting a high last Friday morning on better-than-expected unemployment news and job creation, the market has been dealing with adversity. The obvious explanation is that the good news had been anticipated and already priced into the market. Since the indices were already somewhat extended it was an opportune time to take some profits.
After three days of struggling, is the market ready to find a plateau and resume its rally? The S&P 500 has not had four down days in a row since the end of March, which is a very clear illustration of how consistently the dip buyers have acted throughout this rally. Is it different now? Have the dip buyers used up their fire power? Are they losing their ability to turn the tide when we have a bout of profit taking?
I'm very hesitant to count out the dip buyers especially when we are entering a time of the year when the market typically sees an inflow of new capital. This is the time of the year when folks make retirement-plan contributions, collect end-of-the-year bonuses and put new capital into the market. Seasonality as well as consistent success favors the continuation of active dip buying.
Even though we had a sell-the-news reaction to good economic news, the bigger picture certainly is brighter. In fact, the concern now is that things are improving so rapidly that interest rate increases are on the horizon. Although the market has been anticipating an economic recovery for some time, that isn't true of a great many individual investors. There still are many who were badly burned three years ago and have been hesitant to embrace the emerging bull market.
There is cash sloshing around out there waiting for an opportunity to join the party. That is the primary reason I feel the recent weakness is simply profit taking and consolidation rather than the slippery slope of a dramatic correction. Perhaps we are seeing the start of a top but it will be a process that unfolds over a fairly lengthy period of time. The dip buyers who have been so tenacious have to taste failure several times before they will give up on what has been working.
Despite three days of selling, the major indices have yet to incur any major technical damage. Pull up a chart going back six months or so and you can clearly see that we remain firmly within an upward sloping channel. There were near-breakdowns in early August and late September but the dip buyers did their thing and produced dramatic V-shaped bounces. I see no reason to assume that it is different this time until there is some clear evidence to the contrary.
In the early going we have a slightly positive open shaping up. Asia was mixed overnight and Europe is struggling primarily because of weakness in financial stocks. The dollar fell to a one-week low against the euro. The gold bugs are getting excited about spot gold making a run at new annual highs. Spot gold is up 80 cents to 388.4 x 388.9.
The economic calendar is light but weekly unemployment claims data tomorrow will be important. We have some important earnings reports in the next couple of days including Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq) tonight, Target (TGT:NYSE) and WalMart (WMT:NYSE) tomorrow morning and Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) tomorrow night.
Momentum stocks took some hits over the last couple of days and traders are feeling a bit skittish. We'll see if they can regain their confidence and pick up the speculative pace once again.
Futuurid: Naz 0.18% SP 0.12%
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