Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- CSFB analüütikud tõstavad täna hommikul ravimitootja Bristol-Myersi (BMY) aktsiate reitingu Neutraalse peale varasema Underperform peale. Nende arvates on aktsiad olenemata geneeriliste ravimite pealetulekust odavalt hinnatud ning väärivad varasema $26 hinnasihi asemel $31 hinnasihti. Uus elavnemine firma tulemustes peaks toimuma 2006. aastal.
BMY on LHV Pro valik.
- Ka langetab CSFB USA ühe suurima ravimitootja Merck (MRK)-i aktsiate reitingu varasema Neutraalse pealt Underperform peale. Aktsiad on viimase kuuga põhjast 20% tõusnud ning analüütikute arvates on edasi ülesliikumine vägagi raskendatud. Probleemid nii geneerikute kui ka alles turule tulevate ravimitega lubavad hinnasihiks vaid $49.
- Tundub, et Euroopas on puhkemas uus skandaal. Nimelt maailma suurim tööotsingufirma Adecco SA (ADO) teatas, et ei saa 2003. aasta tulemusi investoritele näidata, kuna on tekkinud kahtlused nende õigsuses. Probleemid on seotud eelkõige firma USAs asuvate operatsioonidega.
See võib tekitada müügihuvi ka firma USA konkurentide hulgas nagu näiteks
RHT, MAN, KELYA, HEW, LRW, SFN, GVHR, HHGP, RECN ja MNST.
- Sirius Satellite (SIRI) on täna hommikul Barronsi karudest kolmunistide käppade vahel.
Firma eesmärgiks on 2004. aasta lõpuks omada 860 000 klienti. Praeguse ligemale $4 miljardi suuruse turukapitalisatsiooni juures maksavad investorid ühe kliendi eest siis umbes $17 000. Kui arvestada, et klient maksab ühe kuu teenuse eest $12.95, siis kulub ühe kliendi "tasumiseks" 110 aastat. See on kaks korda enam kui konkurendi XMSR-i puhul. Tundub, et SIRI aktsiatest on veel rohkem õhku kui esmapilgul tundub. Samas tundub ka, et karud on lõksus.
- Tänase hommiku suurimaks tõusjaks on Dendreon (DNDN), mis teatas, et nende eesnäärmevähki raviv ravimikandidaat näitas III faasi vahekatsetes suurepäraseid tulemusi. Olen varem proovinud aktsiat suurte tõusude peale lühikeseks müüa, kuid siiani on see lõppenud kaotustega.
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVShark:
We have started 2004 with quite a bang. Many market participants have some nice-sized gains to start the year. The most important thing for traders now is to hold on to those gains and find ways for continued success as the market becomes less accommodating.
The beginning of a new year is often helped by a burst of liquidity as folks put money into retirement plans and new investments. The inflow of new capital certainly helped propelled the market higher in the first six days of trading in 2004. However, the fast move left us quite extended and vulnerable to a pullback after the weak jobs data on Friday. The jobs report provided a convenient excuse for traders to lock in some of their recent profits. There are some very big gains to protect. If the markets stay under pressure for any amount of time, downward momentum is likely to build fairly fast as gains are locked in.
This week is going to be especially tricky because of the kickoff of earnings reports. The first major reports come Wednesday after the close when Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) report. The big question is whether this market will stay extended and invite a sell-the-news reaction. Already this morning Goldman Sachs has comments out that it expects the Intel report to be at least in line and possibly better than expected. It is raising the bar and that increases the chances of a disappointment. I certainly would not want to hold Intel into earnings after those comments.
Technically the major indices are still overbought. They aren't bearish but they need to digest recent gains. They can do this through a pullback, or consolidating and basing action. I certainly would not say that the rally that began back in March is doomed, but we need a rest, and the recent parabolic action is going to make it tough for continued upside.
One of the things that makes this market particularly difficult to time right now is the aggressive dip buyers. On Friday we saw a great example of what can happen when the dip buyers become active. The market sold off in the morning on the jobs numbers but the dip buyers stepped up and took the Nasdaq green by midday. The market rolled over again into the close but the shorts who jumped on the morning weakness found themselves being painfully squeezed for a while.
A lot of fund managers already find themselves lagging their benchmark indices and they are going to be inclined to jump on pullbacks and weakness in the hope of catching up. It is only after they are burned a couple times that the dip buyers lose their enthusiasm.
One of the most interesting aspects of this market right now is that although the indices look vulnerable to a pullback, there are quite a few individual stocks with attractive long-side setups. Many of the tech and momentum stocks that lagged the overall market in the final weeks of 2003 are now set up nicely for breakouts to new highs. The best-looking stocks are many of the old-time momentum favorites and sectors.
So we have a whole slew of crosscurrents to consider this week: earnings, extended indices, pockets of good momentum, performance anxiety among fund managers and high levels of liquidity. No one every said this was easy.
In the early going we have a slightly positive open shaping up. Overseas markets were a bit shaky overnight. There is another case of SARS in China. Gold and oil are trading up and the dollar continues its struggles.
Futuurid: Naz0.23% SP0.22%
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