Bloomberg on täna valmis saanud ühe loo tava-ameeriklaste emotsioonidest seoses mõni aeg tagasi vastu võetud $700 miljardilise Wall Streetile mõeldud abipaketiga. Link siin.
Mõned lõiked sellest:
"``I may not understand everything, but I do understand common sense, and when you lend money to someone, you don't want to see them at a new-car dealer the next day,'' said Ken Karlson, a 61-year-old Vietnam veteran and freelance marketer in Wheaton, Illinois. ``The bailout money shouldn't have been given to them in the first place.''
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``The executives in companies that get bailout money should have their base salaries reduced by 10 percent for 2009 and they should pay back a substantial portion of their 2007 bonuses to the government for the financial devastation they oversaw, fostered and, in some cases, directly caused,'' said S. Woods Bennett, a 57-year-old lawyer in Baltimore. ``Their sense of entitlement is appalling.''
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``Individual brokers, if they're performing and their areas are profitable and they're doing their job, I can't see punishing them,'' he said. ``The CEO shouldn't get anything.''
siin pole küll mingit erilist seost, iga pankrott, ülevõtmine vms on case-by-case lugu. Võib hoopis öelda, et samas oleme näinud juba esimesi katseid väikeaktsionäridelt Baltikumis aktsiaid kätte saada:
Leedu börsiteadete klassika. Muidu nagu kõik kenasti, aga muuhulgas kuulutame välja pankroti. Vingis likvideeriti hiljem niisama. Esimene oli aastal 2006. Praktiliselt non-event.
Hommik punastes toonides. Nafta hind teeb viimastel päevadel tõelisi ameerika mägesid (pävasiseselt ka kuni 10% kõikumist), nagu mõned juba ramsi kommentaaridesst aru on saanud. Must kuld eilsega võrreldes -3.5%, makstes $60 ning USA aktsiaturgude indeksite futuurid eilsele langusele lisa indikeerimas -1.7%lise näiduga.
Asset managerid annavad vahvaid AUM numbreid 31. oktoobri seisuks, esimesed ettejuhtuvad: IVZ -13% m/m ($358 bln) BEN -16% m/m ($427 bln)
Tõenäoliselt on neil likviidsuspuhvrid ammendatud ja edasised väljatõmbamised tähendavad aktsiate turguloopimist. Tavaliselt on arenevad turud sellised raha sisse- või väljavoolust sõltuvad õnnetused olnud, nüüd on sama juhtunud ka USA turuga. Raske on uskuda suuremat pööret ülespoole enne kui raha väljavool asset manageride / hedge fondide jne juurest lõpeb.
arvata on, et olukord on piiri peal, ehk kui murrame siit vahemikust allapoole, siis hakkab nalja saama. see ei pruugi nii minna aga kui läheb, siis dow 5k pole mingi utoopia
Sandler O'Neill järgi: Our analysis of the monthly data suggests IVZ experienced about $4 billion of net outflows in October Based on our math, we estimate BEN experienced overall net outflows of ~$15 billion in October.
Focus on Survival By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 11/11/2008 8:15 AM EST
There are no winners, only survivors. -- Frank Gifford
To succeed in this market is to survive. That means keeping your capital safe and losses limited. Unfortunately in the world of Wall Street, survival is not viewed the same way. Most Wall Street professionals try to find a way to stay heavily invested such that they will have less losses than the overall market.
Losing less money is considered a big success on Wall Street. In the world of fund management, relative outperformance vs. a benchmark is the focus, but any individual who is struggling to only lose 30% or so vs. the 37% that the S&P 500 has lost is going to barely survive.
The key here is to forget the Wall Street model of investment management and to focus zealously on protecting your precious capital. Your job is not to stay invested in a lousy market or to try to guess when the bottom might come. Your job is to preserve your cash so you can build up your gains when the odds are in your favor.
Focus on keeping your account as close to all-time highs as possible. The most destructive thing an investor can do is rack up big losses that you need to recover before you can have your account back in the black. Making up losses is hugely unproductive. If you lose 40% of your capital, like the Nasdaq has done so far this year, then you need a gain of 67% just to get back to even. That is why you just sit and buy and hope.
This is one of the worst markets in our lifetimes, and we have to stay focused on surviving as best we can. The folks on Wall Street are already buried in losses, and they are going to keep pushing us to do what they have done -- ride a bunch of stocks down as they constantly try to predict a major turning point.
A turning point will come, and we will join the party. We'll probably be late as we await confirmation of a tradable bottom, but it won't matter one bit because we won't have to make up a 40% or 50% loss like the serial bottom-callers. Stay patient and focus on capital preservation.
We have a weak open on the way and lots of negative news out there. Technically, the October lows are the key levels to watch. There is no way we can trust this market right now with this deteriorating technical pattern and challenge of support levels on the horizon.
Stay tough, stay patient and don't risk your capital on hope. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TMA +40.9%, TA +13.0% (light volume), VOD +10.4%, ESC +5.4%, ASEI +4.6% (light volume)... Other news: OPTR +93.5% (reports "positive data" from its North American phase 3 CDI study of OPT-80; also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), LNET +24.4% (Mark Cuban files 13D reporting 9.9% stake; may seek talks with LNET), ASTI +6.4% (Ascent Solar and TurtleEnergy sign cooperation agreement), WYNN +2.5% (will replace ASH in the S&P 500), BUCY +1.8% (will replace DENTSPLY in the S&P MidCap 400), XRAY +1.2% (will replace HRC in the S&P 500), PPG +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CHK +1.0% (announces Marcellus Shale joint venture and international unconventional natural gas exploration alliance with StatoilHydro).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KFN -36.0% (also downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings and downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), SIL -30.1%, FMCN -22.3% (also downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna Financial, downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkEquity), USAP -12.0% (light volume), LVS -6.3%, CPSL -6.2%, TOL -4.4%, SBUX -3.2%... Select financial names showing continued weakness: GNW -13.6% (discloses that it is no longer eligible to sell commercial paper to the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; also Moody's downgrades Genworth senior debt to Baa1), HBC -6.5%, AIG -6.1% (estimates cut at Stifel), MS -2.5%, ING -2.5%, GS -2.3%, BAC -1.2%, C -1.0%... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices: AUY -4.7%, BHP -4.5%, RTP -4.1%, GFI -3.1%, GLD -1.7%... Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude lower: BP -3.1%, RDS.A -2.8%, TOT -2.0%, XOM -1.7%... Other news: SGMO -57.8% (announces results from diabetic Neuropathy clinical trial SB-509-601; also downgraded to Sell from Buy at Piper Jaffray), TLEO -28.5% (delays quarterly financial report; announces re-evaluation of timing of revenue recognition; also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), VPHM -8.5% (OPTR reported positive results for OPT-80 and reported only 13.3% of patients treated with OPT-80 experienced a recurrence vs. 24.0% for VPHM's Vancocin), AA -5.3% (to curtail additional 350,000 mtpy of aluminum production across its Global Smelting System; also downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings), GOOG -2.7% (Google 4Q revenue forecast cut at Goldman on poor macro data- Bloomberg), AZN -1.6% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: TSN -11.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), PRU -8.7% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - Bloomberg), HIG -5.8% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - Bloomberg), ACAS -4.1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair and downgraded to Hold at BB&T).
Ja nafta jätkab odavnemist, kaubeldes $59.7 peal, olles 3-4 kuu tagustest tippudest kukkunud 60%. See on nüüd vaid aja küsimus, mil OPEC tootmist laialt piirama hakkab.
Need, kes $80list hinda, rääkimata siis $60st, suvel enam võimalikuks ei pidanud, on tugevalt eksinud. Täpselt samamoodi, nagu eksivad ka need, kes arvavad, et mitte kunagi enam ei jõua aktsiaturg uutele tippudele. Nagu väidab vana ütluski: "The market does what we least expect..."
Eilne ÄP online: Venemaa naftafirmad hakkasid 1. novembrist eksporti piirama ja on nafta väljavedu vähendanud praeguseks umbes veerandi võrra, avaldas Interfaks.
Naftaekspordi vähenemisest teatas Interfaksile Transnefti juht Nikolai Tokarev. Tema sõnul on kõigi naftafirmade eksport vähenenud kokku veerandi võrra.
Saadetiste kärpimine oli vastureaktsiooniks eksporditolli muutumisele, selgitas Tokarev. Ta lisas, et naftakompaniid hoiatasid juba oma välispartnereid, et ekspordimahud võivad väheneda.
Tänavu sügisel muutus nafta müük Venemaa ettevõtetele kahjumlikuks. Valitsus alandas nafta eksporditolli 1. oktoobril rohkem kui 113 dollari ja 1. novembril veel 85 dollari võrra. Praegu tuleb eksportijal maksta 287 dollarit naftatonni kohta.
Tokarev avaldas lootust, et naftaekspordi vähenemine on ajutine. Ta märkis, et ettevõtetel on nafta väljaveo lepingud ja kohustusi tuleb täita.