Eilse USA turgude võimsa ralli peale on ka Aasia märgatavalt plussis, suurtest turgudest on enam tõusnud Jaapani Nikkei 225, kaubeldes 4.5% kõrgemal. Lõuna-Korea Kospi on +3.2% ning Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.6%.
Kas ameerika aktsiaturul puudub üksikaktsial samasugune piirang nagu eestis + - 15% päevas
Eastern Europe to Avoid Default, Rebound ‘Strongly,’ Mirow Says 2009-03-10 18:30:02.0 GMT
By Daryna Krasnolutska and Halia Pavliva
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Eastern European economies will avoid debt defaults and “bounce back strongly” after the global financial crisis, said Thomas Mirow, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“What we are now facing in some countries in eastern Europe is a severe recession but not a collapse,” Mirow said today in a speech at the London School of Economics released in advance to the media. “It would however be a grave mistake to paint the future in colors too bleak. The situation today is serious, but it is manageable.”
The economies of former communist countries have been shaken by the drying up of credit and investment after years of unprecedented growth as the region integrated with the wealthier West. Some, including Hungary, Latvia, and Ukraine were forced to take international bailouts to stabilize their finances.
Ukraine faces an economic contraction of as much as 10 percent in 2009 after nine years of growth. The Hungarian economy may slump 3.5 percent this year and record its worst performance in 16 years.
“There are strong underlying fundamentals in eastern Europe which remain in place and need to be protected,” said Mirow.
“We believe that eastern Europe will come out of the present crisis, perhaps bruised and battered, but not beaten.”
The London-based bank, set up to help former communist economies in transition, is urging the West to help the East.
‘All of Europe’
“Maintaining the flow of credit and not retrenching behind national borders is crucial for all of Europe,” said Mirow.
“Shutting the door to our neighbors now will also mean shutting the door to our own future.”
Ukraine is “the biggest concern” as it “is confronted with a multitude of problems,” said Mirow.
The nation’s economic meltdown is aggravated by political turbulence caused by struggles between Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko over economic policies, which are hampering decision-making.
The government’s plan to run a state budget deficit of 5 percent of gross domestic product this year has jeopardized cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
The Washington-based lender approved a $16.4 billion loan to Ukraine in November and disbursed the first installment of $4.5 billion. The second tranche, expected in mid-February, has been delayed indefinitely.
To get a resumption of IMF lending Yushchneko and Timoshenko pledged last week to hold “a joint position.”
“We have received the joint declaration of the authorities regarding their commitment to the program and we have welcomed this,” Conny Lotze, spokeswoman at the IMF office in Washington D.C., said via e-mail, answering Bloomberg questions. “We are continuing discussions with the authorities on specific measures.”
Mirow said the EBRD is “encouraged by the recent declarations of unity and the imminent return to Kiev of an IMF delegation. The stability of Ukraine is of crucial importance for the future of all Europe.”
For Related News and Information:
More stories on the EBRD: NI EBRD
Stories about east European banks: TNI EEU BNK Global credit crunch: CCRU Emerging markets view: EMMV On the EBRD: 6044Z LN DES Bailout & Rescue Programs: RESQ
--With reporting by Eduard Gismatullin and Agnes Lovasz in London, Balazs Penz in Budapest. Editors: Chris Kirkham
To contact the reporter on this story:
Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev at +38-044-490-1252 or dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net Halia Pavliva in New York at +1-212-617-72-21 or hpavliva@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Alan Crosby at +420-2-2442-2112 or
acrosby1@bloomberg.net
By Daryna Krasnolutska and Halia Pavliva
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Eastern European economies will avoid debt defaults and “bounce back strongly” after the global financial crisis, said Thomas Mirow, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“What we are now facing in some countries in eastern Europe is a severe recession but not a collapse,” Mirow said today in a speech at the London School of Economics released in advance to the media. “It would however be a grave mistake to paint the future in colors too bleak. The situation today is serious, but it is manageable.”
The economies of former communist countries have been shaken by the drying up of credit and investment after years of unprecedented growth as the region integrated with the wealthier West. Some, including Hungary, Latvia, and Ukraine were forced to take international bailouts to stabilize their finances.
Ukraine faces an economic contraction of as much as 10 percent in 2009 after nine years of growth. The Hungarian economy may slump 3.5 percent this year and record its worst performance in 16 years.
“There are strong underlying fundamentals in eastern Europe which remain in place and need to be protected,” said Mirow.
“We believe that eastern Europe will come out of the present crisis, perhaps bruised and battered, but not beaten.”
The London-based bank, set up to help former communist economies in transition, is urging the West to help the East.
‘All of Europe’
“Maintaining the flow of credit and not retrenching behind national borders is crucial for all of Europe,” said Mirow.
“Shutting the door to our neighbors now will also mean shutting the door to our own future.”
Ukraine is “the biggest concern” as it “is confronted with a multitude of problems,” said Mirow.
The nation’s economic meltdown is aggravated by political turbulence caused by struggles between Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko over economic policies, which are hampering decision-making.
The government’s plan to run a state budget deficit of 5 percent of gross domestic product this year has jeopardized cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
The Washington-based lender approved a $16.4 billion loan to Ukraine in November and disbursed the first installment of $4.5 billion. The second tranche, expected in mid-February, has been delayed indefinitely.
To get a resumption of IMF lending Yushchneko and Timoshenko pledged last week to hold “a joint position.”
“We have received the joint declaration of the authorities regarding their commitment to the program and we have welcomed this,” Conny Lotze, spokeswoman at the IMF office in Washington D.C., said via e-mail, answering Bloomberg questions. “We are continuing discussions with the authorities on specific measures.”
Mirow said the EBRD is “encouraged by the recent declarations of unity and the imminent return to Kiev of an IMF delegation. The stability of Ukraine is of crucial importance for the future of all Europe.”
For Related News and Information:
More stories on the EBRD: NI EBRD
Stories about east European banks: TNI EEU BNK
--With reporting by Eduard Gismatullin and Agnes Lovasz in London, Balazs Penz in Budapest. Editors: Chris Kirkham
To contact the reporter on this story:
Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev at +38-044-490-1252 or dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net Halia Pavliva in New York at +1-212-617-72-21 or hpavliva@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Alan Crosby at +420-2-2442-2112 or
acrosby1@bloomberg.net
Ja tasakaalustame eelmise uudise ka kohe ära...
How Low Can the Stock Markets Go? Much Lower
Nouriel Roubini | Mar 9, 2009
For the last six months this author has been arguing that, in spite of the sharp fall in US and global equities there were significant downside risk to stock markets. Thus, repeated bear market rallies would fizzle out under the onslaught of worse than expected macro news, earnings news and financial markets/firms shocks. They way we put is very simple:
If you take a macro approach earnings per share (EPS) of S&P 500 firms will be – quite realistically in 2009 - in the $ 50 to 60 range (I say realistically as some may even argue that in a severe recession they could fall to $40). Then, the question is what the multiple, i.e. the price earnings (P/E) ratio will be on such earnings. It is realistic to expect that the multiple may fall in the 10 to 12 range in a U-shaped recession. Then, even in the best scenario (earnings at 60 and P/E at 12) the S&P index would be at 720. If either earnings are closer to 50 or the P/E ratio is lower at 10 then the S&P could fall to 600 (12 x 50 or 10 x 60) or even to 500 (10 x 50). Equivalently the Dow (DJIA) would be at least as low as 7000 and possibly as low as 6000 or 5000. And using a similar logic we argued that global equities – following the US - had another 20% plus downside risk.
These predictions were made when the S&P 500 was close to 900 and the DIJA was close at 9000. This basic macro approach was the reason why we argued that the latest bear market sucker’s rally – the one going from late November 2008 to early January 2009 – would fizzle out and new lows would be reached. Indeed, like previous bear market rallies of the last year this one went bust – falling over 20% - and the DJIA and the S&P broke below the 7000 and 700 upper limit of our range for US equities. With the DJIA and the S&P now well below the “7” range the next test for the markets may be 6000 and 600 for the two indices.
How Low Can the Stock Markets Go? Much Lower
Nouriel Roubini | Mar 9, 2009
For the last six months this author has been arguing that, in spite of the sharp fall in US and global equities there were significant downside risk to stock markets. Thus, repeated bear market rallies would fizzle out under the onslaught of worse than expected macro news, earnings news and financial markets/firms shocks. They way we put is very simple:
If you take a macro approach earnings per share (EPS) of S&P 500 firms will be – quite realistically in 2009 - in the $ 50 to 60 range (I say realistically as some may even argue that in a severe recession they could fall to $40). Then, the question is what the multiple, i.e. the price earnings (P/E) ratio will be on such earnings. It is realistic to expect that the multiple may fall in the 10 to 12 range in a U-shaped recession. Then, even in the best scenario (earnings at 60 and P/E at 12) the S&P index would be at 720. If either earnings are closer to 50 or the P/E ratio is lower at 10 then the S&P could fall to 600 (12 x 50 or 10 x 60) or even to 500 (10 x 50). Equivalently the Dow (DJIA) would be at least as low as 7000 and possibly as low as 6000 or 5000. And using a similar logic we argued that global equities – following the US - had another 20% plus downside risk.
These predictions were made when the S&P 500 was close to 900 and the DIJA was close at 9000. This basic macro approach was the reason why we argued that the latest bear market sucker’s rally – the one going from late November 2008 to early January 2009 – would fizzle out and new lows would be reached. Indeed, like previous bear market rallies of the last year this one went bust – falling over 20% - and the DJIA and the S&P broke below the 7000 and 700 upper limit of our range for US equities. With the DJIA and the S&P now well below the “7” range the next test for the markets may be 6000 and 600 for the two indices.
perli, USA turul piiranguid ei ole.
see oleks muidugi üleüldse huvitav kontseptsioon, et aktsiate hinnad peavad summaarselt olema vastavad nende jooksva aasta kasumile. Kui mälu ei peta, siis Suure Depressiooniaegses aktsiaturu põhjas oli P/E mingi 29.
kristjan, sa ju tead, et on tsükligurud ja meetodigurud. Mõlema staatus kehtib seni, kuni kas tsükkel või meetod. Pole oluline, mis argumendid neil on, oluline on, et nad suuna õigesti suudavad "ette ennustada." Roubini võib täitsa vabalt olla tsükliguru.
Roubini on väitnud enda investeerimisstiiliks "passiivne investeerimine". Seega ta ei pretendeeri kuidagi tsükliguru staatusele.
Roubini investeerimisstiilist
Especially since Roubini himself hasn't bought or sold a thing in response to his own forecast: He has all of his money in a diversified portfolio of index funds. "That's how I've invested for the past 20 years and how I'll invest for the next 20," he says. "I take a long-term view."
Hoolimata sellest, et Roubini sünged ennustused on viimase aasta või pooleteise jooksul täide läinud, ei pea mees end nii targaks, et teha investeerimisotsuseid ennustuste põhjal ja on valinud pikaajalise passiivse investeerimisstrateegia - investeerib regulaarselt kogu aeg osa oma sissetulekust hajutatud aktsiaportfelli.
Igav, kas pole? Kõlab peaaegu nagu pensionifond :)
Especially since Roubini himself hasn't bought or sold a thing in response to his own forecast: He has all of his money in a diversified portfolio of index funds. "That's how I've invested for the past 20 years and how I'll invest for the next 20," he says. "I take a long-term view."
Hoolimata sellest, et Roubini sünged ennustused on viimase aasta või pooleteise jooksul täide läinud, ei pea mees end nii targaks, et teha investeerimisotsuseid ennustuste põhjal ja on valinud pikaajalise passiivse investeerimisstrateegia - investeerib regulaarselt kogu aeg osa oma sissetulekust hajutatud aktsiaportfelli.
Igav, kas pole? Kõlab peaaegu nagu pensionifond :)
ehk siis talitage minu sõnade mitte minu tegude järgi
Tsükliguru staatuse välja teenimine ei eelda minu meelest investeerimist. Võtame või kasvõi kogemata tsükli olemuse ära tabanud lihtsast palgatöölisest makroanalüütiku.
Hiinas toimuvatest arengutest kirjutasin mõned päevad tagasi siin. Täna kirjutab Bloomberg Hiina veebruarikuisest vase nõudlusest, mis on võrreldes jaanuariga kasvanud üle 40% ja jõudnud rekordtasemele. Hiina valitsuse poolt vastu võetud majanduse stimuleerimispakett on siinkohal lisanõudluse tekitajaks. Bloombergist saab lugeda lähemalt.
ARC1T -ga tehti tehing: 2009-03-11__12:07:04__ARC1T__EUR__0.06__2520630__STND__YHI-YHI. Kas STND tehingud võivad 15% limiidi piirest välja minna? Limiidi vahemik on 0.07 .... 0.09 EUR.
OX standard ehk endises mõistes blokktehingu künnisest suurema kogusega tehingu võib teha suvaliselt hinnatasemelt
Protsentuaalsed limiidid on muidugi imelised asjad. Nimelt ei saaks neid lõpuni järgides kunagi jõuda 0.00ni. Liikudes ühe sendi kaupa, tuleb piir juba väga kiiresti ette.
0.10->0.09 on -10%
0.09->0.08 on -11.1%
0.08->0.07 on -12.5%
0.07->0.06 on -14.3%
0.06->0.05 on -16.67%
0.05->0.04 on -20%
0.04->0.03 on -25%
0.03->0.02 on -33.3%
0.02->0.01 on -50%
0.01->0.00 on -100%
0.10->0.09 on -10%
0.09->0.08 on -11.1%
0.08->0.07 on -12.5%
0.07->0.06 on -14.3%
0.06->0.05 on -16.67%
0.05->0.04 on -20%
0.04->0.03 on -25%
0.03->0.02 on -33.3%
0.02->0.01 on -50%
0.01->0.00 on -100%
Üle hulga aja näeme, et üks finantsasutus on teisele antavat soovitust tõstmas. Goldman Sachs tõstab täna Morgan Stanley (MS) aktsia soovituse neutraalse pealt 'osta' peale.
See jah ammu teada, et aktsiad ei saa -15 prossase limiidi korral kunagi maksta alla 6 sendi ;)
Kolme komakohaga hinnanoteerimine on Eesti börsi aktsiahindu vaadates minu arvates muutumas üha mõttekamaks.
Miks nad reverse splitti ei tee?
Näeksime jälle rasvaseid 10 euroseid aktsiaid:)
Näeksime jälle rasvaseid 10 euroseid aktsiaid:)
ÕS:
mõttekas - <8: -ka, -kat> aruka mõttega, otstarbekas. ▪ Mõttekam on teed küsida kui valesti minna. Mõttekalt. Mõttekus
mõtekas - Päring ei andnud tulemusi
mõttekas - <8: -ka, -kat> aruka mõttega, otstarbekas. ▪ Mõttekam on teed küsida kui valesti minna. Mõttekalt. Mõttekus
mõtekas - Päring ei andnud tulemusi