Börsipäev 11. august

Investeerimine
1

Kuigi eile suutsid USA turud Föderaalreservi raporti järgselt suurest miinusest kosuda, siis päeva lõpus hakati taas allapoole vajuma ning praeguseks hetkeks on nii USA indeksite futuurid, Saksamaa DAX indeks kui ka eur/usd ca 1%lises languses. Makrouudiste poole pealt on USAs täna võrdlemisi vaikne päev.

2
USA dollar on euro vastu tugevnemas: EUR/USD kaupleb hetkel allpool 1,3000 taset.
Jeen tegi dollari vastu aga 15 aasta tipu, jõudes 84,714 tasemeni.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CRME -11.4%, CREE -9.9%, MYGN -5.0% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Global Hunter), AONE -4.2%, AOSL -4.2% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank) , EJ -2.5%, ING -2.5%, URS -2.5%.

Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -5.8%, LYG -5.6%, GNW -5.5%, BCS -4.8%, RBS -4.6%, STD -4.2%, AIB -4.2%, DB -3.8%, PUK -3.7%, CS -3.6%, FITB -3.3%, KEY -3.0%, RF -2.9%, HBAN -2.7%, UBS -3.2%, ING -2.6%, AIG -2.2% (subsidiary, ILFC, announces offering of $500 mln of unsecured senior notes due 2017), HBC -2.1%, MBI -1.9%, GS -1.7%, BAC -1.7%, .

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: TGB -5.6%, MT -5.3%, RTP -3.8% (trading ex dividend), SLT -3.4%, BBL -3.3%, TCK -2.9%, AA -2.4%, DROOY -2.1%.

Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: SDRL -4.7%, STO -3.5%, TOT -3.3%, E -3.0%, WLT -2.9%, RDS.A -2.9%, APC -2.9%, REP -2.9%, BEXP -2.7%, PBR -2.6%, BP -2.5%, HAL -2.4%.

Select European drug names trading lower: SNY -2.6%, AZN -2.5%, NVS -1.9%.

Other news: FUQI -7.9% (files to delay its 10-Q), PHG -5.4% and ASML -5.2% (traded lower overseas), FRO -4.8% (traded lower overseas following analyst downgrade), EVEP -4.5% (announces public offering of 3 mln common units), RGNC -4.5% (priced an upsized public offering of 15.25 mln common units representing limited partner interests at $23.80/unit), ARMH -4.1% (still checking for anything specific), DPM -3.9% (announces public offering of 2.6 mln shares), UN -3.4% (trading ex dividend), SATC -2.7% (following 424B3 filing; co notes number of shares of common stock being offered by selling stockholder Hudson Bay Master Fund is 383,348 shares).

Analyst comments: TSCO -3.5% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), EQR -2.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), GPS -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Wedbush).

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CCME +11.5% (guides Q2 in NT 10-Q filing), JAZZ +5.7%, LDK +3.7% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Soleil), CFN +3.5%, ZAGG +3.4%, SPWRA +3.0% (upgraded to Accumulate at Ardour Capital), M +1.9%, SBLK +1.8% (light volume), AVT +0.7% (light volume), DIS +0.5%.

Other news: TTM +1.8% (traded higher overseas on continued strength following earnings).

4

USA futuurid indikeerimas avanemist ca 1.6% madalamal

Euroopa turud:

Saksamaa DAX -1,85%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -1,99%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -1,71%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2,06%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1,68%
Venemaa MICEX -1,41%
Poola WIG -0,98%

Aasia turud:

Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2,70%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,83%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,47%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,86%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1,46%
Tai Set 50 0,00%
India Sensex 30 -0,82%

5
Kuna tänane päev on mu enda jaoks väga sisutihe, ei ole jõudnud ka siinset foorumit uudistega eriti täiendada. Aga nagu eile õhtul juba Fedi raporti järgselt ütlesin, tundus mulle, et jämedam ots oli lühemas perspektiivis karude käes ning tänane S&P500 indeksi üle 2%line miinus on seda ka ehedalt tõestamas.
6
EUR/USD on igatahes väga tähelepanuväärse muudatuse korda saatnud viimaste uudiste valguses
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HUD to launch $1 bln emergency homeowners loan program for unemployed, according to CNBC
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CNBC commentator says filing of GM IPO paper work (S-1) could come as early as next week, but remains up in the air
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$24 bln 10-year Note Auction Results: Yield 2.730% (expected 2.747%); Bid/Cover: 3.04x (Prior 3.09x, 12-auction avg 2.99x); Indirect Bidders: 45.8% (Prior 41.7%, 12-auction avg 41.2%)
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Netflix: $1 bln EPIX deal signals higher cost structure - Wedbush
Wedbush notes that yesterday, NFLX announced a 5-year $1 billion streaming agreement with EPIX. EPIX is a JV among Viacom (parent of Paramount Pictures), Lionsgate and MGM. The EPIX deal appears to them to be a replacement for the Starz deal, which will expire within the next two years. The EPIX deal provides high quality streaming content, but in their view, not enough and at too high a price.

$125 kandist lühike positsioon ei ole kõige kehvem mõte, kuid peab arvestama, et NFLX aktsia on väga terav liikuja.
11
NY Fed Trading desk to purchase $18 bln in treasuries and TIPS from Aug 17-Sept 13
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Deutsche Bank on täna langetanud USA 2. kvartali SKP prognoosi 2.4% pealt 1.1% peale. Q3 kasvuootust langetati 4.6% pealt 3.0% peale ning Q4 ootust 3.8% pealt 3.3% peale. 2011. aasta SKP kasvuootus 3.3% jäeti muutmata.

Kui varasemalt arvati, et 2011. aasta lõpuks jõuavad Föderaalreservi poolt määratud intressimäärad kerkida 2.0%ni tänase 0.25% pealt, siis nüüd langetatakse see ootus 1.0% peale.
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Cisco tulemuste peale -8% ja futuurides räme kukkumine! Uued aasta põjad tulekul?
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Betin 1 rummkoola, et homme avaneme kõrgemalt kui järelturu $108 ja kopikad. Lihtsalt alati üdini pessimistlik* Chamber ütles välja selle, mis juba nagunii teada.. et 2Q < 3Q sesoonsus sel aastal imeb. Bigtime.

* Jutumärgid. Lihtsalt seekord juba paar nädalat supply chaini poole pealt seda juttu tulnud, nii et ei mingit üllatust tavapärasest täiesti erineva tooni osas