Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Comcast (CMCSA) teatas, et soovib osta Walt Disney Company (DIS) $66 miljardi dollari eest. Disney, mille praegust juhti on investeerimiskogukonna poolt teravalt kritiseeritud firma probleemidesse saatmise eest peaks koos Comcastiga moodustama ühe maailma suurima meelelahutusettevõtte.
Huvitav on mainida, et kuigi DIS hinnaks pakutakse Comcasti poolt $26.46 aktsia kohta, siis kauplesid aktsiad eelturul ka $28 peal. See näitab, et turuosalised usuvad kõrgemasse hinda.
Uudis peaks positiivselt mõjutama ka selliseid firmasid nagu Six Flags (PKS) ning Cedar Fair (FUN), kuna näitab, et kogu sektor võib olla alahinnatud. Kuuldavasti on Disney korduvalt vaadanud PKS-i poole ostusooviga ning nüüd, endisest tugevamana võib ka mingil hetkel tulevikus reaalse ostupakkumise teha.
- Lehman alustab pisikese biofarmaatsia vallas tegutseva ARIAD Pharma (ARIA) katmist Overweight reitingu ning $13 hinnasihiga. Firma arendab uuelaadseid vähiravimeid, mis võivad onkoloogias ilma teha. ARIA juhtiv ravimikandidaat AP23573 peaks firma sõnul suutma blokeerida verevarustuse kasvajasse, suretades selle välja. Karud ei usu ARIA tehnoloogiasse, pidades seda võimatuks. Eks tulevik näitab, kellel on õigus. Kui ARIA tehnoloogia peaks tõepoolest töötama on miljardid kiired tulema.
- Office Depot (ODP) teatas oma 2003 Q4 aasta tulemused, mis olid ootustega enam-vähem kooskõlas. Käive kasvas viimases kvartalis 14.4% (y/y) ning järgmiseks aastaks plaanib firma 15-20% puhkaskasumi kasvu. Viimane number tundub olevat veidi ülalpool analüütikute konsensust.
- Veel on Lehman väljas ühe väga olulise nupukesega. Nimelt langetavad firma analüütikud Väikeste Tech-aktsiate sektori reitingu Underweight peale varasema Overweight pealt. Nende arvates ei saa korduma 110% tõus eelmise aasta märtsi põhjadest ning et sektor on juba liiga "kuum". Liiga paljud on seal sees. Rääkimata kõrgest valuatsioonist.
Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:
After working higher on steadily declining volume for the past three days, the big question is whether the bulls have the persistence and drive to keep this market going. The light volume has left me very skeptical of the ability of the bulls to put this market on the course to new highs.
While price is the ultimate scorecard, volume is the measure of effort. Although the bulls have been winning, they have not been exhibiting the sort of determination and persistence that gives us confidence that they are going to keep on winning. The bulls are resting on their laurels. They clearly have advantages but unless they do the hard work and produce some decent volume, they will squander them.
We have a number of interesting events this morning that will make things interesting. First is the Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq) hostile bid for Disney (DIS:NYSE). Regardless of the merits of such a deal, it creates a positive atmosphere for the market. Once a company is willing to pay a 10% premium for a DJIA component, it sends the message that maybe things really aren't that expensive. This story is far from over but the short-term net effect is a positive for the market.
The second event that will affect this morning is Alan Greenspan's semiannual monetary policy report and testimony to the House Finance Subcommittee. The text of his opening comments will be released early and then he will answer questions between the usually inane speech making.
The market will be intensely focused on any comments or clues about the future of interest rates. The biggest moves in this market recently have been caused by news that tends to affect rates. The market is highly sensitized to that issue right now, which means Mr. Greenspan can move this market if he provides any clear clues as to policy rather than the usually obfuscation.
The Disney news has helped produce an upbeat tone so far this morning. Overseas markets are strong. The dollar is mixed and oil and gold are trading down a bit. There are no major economic reports earnings news due.
We have the makings for a volatile day. The recent light volume has helped produce some choppy action as big buyers push the market around. Look for that to continue today.
I remain very cautious. The low-volume bounce over the last three days have given me little comfort that we can continue to work higher. Hopefully we'll have some drama today to shake things up.
Futuurid: Naz SP
