USA turud on avanemas miinuses. Negatiivsega tuli turule alumiiniumitootja Alcoa, samas kiitis kohus heaks Oracle ostupakkumise PeopleSoft ülevõtmiseks.
Peoplesoft (PSFT) aktsia on eelturul 13% plussis ning Oracle (ORCL) vaenulik ülevõtmine võib isegi teostuda, sest kohus lükkas tagasi kaebuse, et Oracle ülevõtupakkumine rikub trustidevastast seadust.
Augustis langes tootjahinnaindeks 0,1% (ei arvesta toiduainete ja energiatootmist), samal ajal oodati väikest kasvu. USA kaubavahetusdefitsiit vähenes juulis 8,9 protsenti 50,1 miljardile dollarile, ootused olid 2 miljardi dollari osas suuremad.
IT teenuseid pakkuv EDS (EDS) võib koondada kuni 20 000 töötajat kahe järgneva aasta jooksul. Teine negatiivne uudis turu jaoks tuli Alcoalt (AA), alumiiniumitootja aktsia kaotas eelturul 7% väärtusest kui teatas, et kolmanda kvartali prognoose täita ei suudeta.
Rev Shark:
The semiconductor sector has been one of the worst-performing groups of 2004, downtrending for over nine months. A surprisingly weak midquarter update by Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) a week ago sent the group down once again and many of the bullish supporters of the group, such as Tom Kurlak, threw in the towel. The thinking was that yes, things looked bad, but they could still get worse.
Yesterday Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) and National Semi (NSM:NYSE) issued generally good reports but offered weak guidance. The typical reaction to such news would have been negative, but the action in the group had been so bad for so long that many folks started thinking that the worst had already been fully priced in and things can only get better from here.
The optimistic buyers jumped in, the shorts covered and the bargain hunters hurried to join the party so they wouldn't be left behind. The end result was one of the best days technically for the Nasdaq since June.
The question we confront this morning is whether chip stocks can continue to attract enough buyers who think the absolute worst is already priced in. The key here is solid follow-through. If yesterday marked the bottom then within three to 10 days we should see another strong upward move in the group on high volume. That would be the signal that momentum has indeed shifted.
The interesting paradox now is that the strength in the chip stocks helped the Nasdaq produce exactly the sort of follow-through day that confirms a trend. What is going on is that there is rotation from group to group, and this is holding the indices up even though there is no one group that can be deemed the "leadership."
Yesterday was a good example. Although the chips were strong there was weakness in other key groups such as retailers, Internets and drugs. Financials also floundered, although they had be the key leadership group recently.
The theme right now is "rotation." There are some good pockets of strength to be found but they are shifting quickly. Whether the indices can work higher depends on the groups performing in tandem. If chips prove to be more than a one-day wonder and if financials, retailers and biotech can regain their recent momentum the indices will be in good shape.
One of the big things this market has had going for it recently is a high level of skepticism. The rally in chips may now result in enough of an increase in bullishness that scaling the wall of worry may become more difficult. Traders love the chips and when they embrace them, bullishness rises quickly. A high level of bullish is the one thing that folks like Helene Meisler see missing before a short-term top will come into play.
I remain concerned about seasonality and am skeptical that technology stocks can regain substantial upside momentum now. That doesn't mean there aren't some good trades to be had but I'm sticking with short time frames.
We have a slightly positive open shaping up while we wait for the PPI report. Overseas markets were mixed but investors are hopeful that chips will come through again.
Gary B. Smith:
