Aasiast vaatab täna hommikul päris punane pilt vastu. Hiina aktsiaturg -8%, Hong Kong -3.5%, Lõuna-Korea -2%, Jaapan -1%. Hiina turgude langusele on kaasa aidanud sealse Keskpanga nõue, et finantsasutused peavad alates 25. juunist reservideks panema juba 17.5% vastu võetud hoiustest. Tegu on viienda reservimäära tõstmisega sel aastal ja seeläbi üritatakse võidelda riigis vohava inflatsiooni vastu.
Lisaks oli eile õhtul USA Föderaalreservi esimees Ben Bernanke Bostonis rääkimas, et oluline langusoht USA majanduses tundub tänaseks kadunud olevat ning et võitlust inflatsiooni vastu tuleb võtta tõsisemalt. See on intressimäärade võimaliku tõstmise 2008. aasta lõpus, 2009. aasta alguses taaskord päevakorda tõstnud, tugevdanud dollari kurssi ning langetanud tänaseid aktsiaturu futuure. Üks huvitav ja pisut pikem artikkel eilsest Bernanke inflatsiooni-vastasest kõnest siin.
Wall Street Journal on täna vahendamas Rahvusvahelise Energiaagentuuri prognoosi, et kõrged kütusehinnad on vähendamas nõudluse kasvu nafta järele. 2008. aasta nõudluse kasvu prognoositakse nüüd 0.9%i juurde varasemalt 1.2% pealt. Arvestades, et 2008. aasta on juba poole peal, on nõudluse kasvu kiire vähenemine aset leidnud just paaril viimasel kuul. Oluline faktor nõudluse vähenemisel on ka arenguriikide - näiteks India - valitsusepoolne subsiidiumite vähendamine kohalikule kütusele. Arengumaade elanikud on aga äärmiselt hinnatundlikud.
USA puhul nähakse nafta nõudluse vähenemist 2008. aastal 2.5% ulatuses, mis annab ka vihjeid majanduse olukorra üle.
arengumaad on oluliselt vähem hinnatundlikud kui US näiteks, nad on sissetulekutundlikud. Ja sissetulekud kasvavad siiani. Nad tihti ei tegi, mis hind eelmisel aastal oli, sest siis neil lihtsalt autot ei olnud.
RealMoney’s kiidetakse täna Venemaa telekommunikatsiooni giganti Mobile TeleSystemsit (MBT), kes on Venemaa suurim mobiiltelefonide vallas. MBT’l on 60 miljonit wireless klienti Venemaal, 19.6 miljonit Ukrainas.
3G teenustega on algust juba Sankt Peterburgis tehtud ning $1.6 miljardilise investeeringuga loodetakse ka Moskva 3G võrguga katta 2009. aasta alguseks. Kuna võrdlemisi paljudel venelastel puudub veel juurdepääs broadband internetile, on 3G võrgu potentsiaal seda suurem.
John Hughes ja Scott Maragioglio RealMoney’st soovitavad aktsiat täna $85 pealt osta ja hoida seda kuni $100-$105ni jõudmiseni.
Venemaa telekommunikatsiooniturust, arengust ja potentsiaalist on Pro all ka pikemalt kirjutatud nii Vimpelcommi(VIP) kui ka Sistema all.
madis43. Ei taha su väitega täiel määral nõustuda. Mida jõukamaks muutub riik ja mida suuremad on sissetulekud, seda väiksem on protsentuaalselt see osakaal, mis kulutatakse toidu ja kütuse peale. Vaesemates arenguriikides on toidu ja kütusekulud protsentuaalselt ära võtmas väga suurt osa sissetulekutest. Ülikiire Inflatsioon, tõusvad toidu ning energiahinnad ongi seetõttu valusamalt löömas just vaesemaid kihte (kellel pole ka reserve, hoiuseid, väärtpabereid hinge taga, mida olukorra halvenedes saaks elustandardi säilitamiseks rakendusse võtta ning kelle juurdepääs laenuturule on kesisem kui arenenud riikides).
Jah, palgad on küll kasvanud, kuid mitte reaalpalgad. Reaalpalgad on üldiselt suhteliselt nulli lähedal olnud (näiteks Indoneesias) väga erinevates elu valdkondades. Seega igasugused lisanduvad hinnatõusud mõjuvad negatiivselt tarbimisele, kuna lihtsalt tuleb hakata püksirihma pingutama... Ja üks asi on auto, teine asi on roller/mootorratas, mis samamoodi kütust sööb.
Short natuke LEH @ 28.7. Täna juba 2 downgrade'i ja turg ei näe ka just kõige positiivsem välja. Kauaks hoidma ei jää, ilmselt peale 15:00 meie aja järgi katan.
No krt, turg on ikka insane, QQQQ ja XLF mõlemad miinuses, LEH saab vasakult ja paremalt peksa, aga stock ei taha kukkuda. Ju siis tuleb turule rohkem aega anda ja vahepeal juurde võtta :) Avg $28.99.
Natuke läheb tihedaks postitamine, aga krt, see on ju ka nõme, kui ma ütlen ainult esialgse tehingu ja juurdevõtmisi mitte ja siis kunagi hiljem ütlen, et näe, hoopis selline keskmine oli. Siis tuleb Street ja hakkab virisema, et kunagi ammu väidetavalt tehtud tehingutega hea kekutada :D
joel, seda nüüd küll, aga tata nano ja teiste säästukate turuletulekuga on väga paljude jaoks bensiinitoodete tarbimine siiski odavamaks läinud. Neile on kõige suurem probleem algkapitali kätte saamine, kui seda on vähem vaja, siis võib edasi rallida:) Sama nähtus ka mujal, kasutatud autode hinnad langevad, mis, küll osaliselt, aga siiski, buustib tarbimist. (kõlab küll natuke selle abiellumise ja lahutamise argumendi moodi kv puhul, aga mingi panuse annab)
End of the Uptrend By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 6/10/2008 8:31 AM EDT
Character, not circumstances, makes the man. -- Booker T. Washington
The character of the market has been changing in recent days as a series of problems that have been lingering for a while come to the forefront. Most notable, crude oil has reached a tipping point where the ramifications of higher price are no longer being blithely ignored. In addition, continued writedowns in the financial sector, which many hoped were close to an end, are driving banks and brokers to new lows. The spike in unemployment we saw on Friday is causing new economic insecurity.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is adding to the list of worries and insecurities this morning with comments indicating major concerns about the risk of inflation. Bernanke indicates that the Fed will "strongly resist" an increase in inflationary pressures, which makes it pretty clear that further rate cuts are unlikely.
Ben Bernanke isn't the only one concerned about inflation this morning. Aggressive monetary tightening in China sent stocks there to their worst losses in many years. That is causing additional pressure, particularly among speculative traders who are running out of sectors, other than oil and fertilizers, that are showing upside momentum.
To state the obvious, we have some major issues out there, and the market is now struggling to price these things in. For the last couple of months, many have been embracing the rally based on the idea that the market had already discounted its many negatives and was looking forward to better times down the road. The recent headlines about oil, inflation and unemployment call into question the hope behind the "worst is over" rally we have enjoyed since March.
This change in market character is confirmed by the technical condition of the indices. All the major indices are breaking the uptrend from the last few months and are starting to downtrend. While we are a tad oversold at the moment and could easily get a bounce, especially on a weak open this morning, the bigger trend is shifting, and the risk now is that strength will be sold rather than embraced.
Much of the optimism behind this market recently has been based on hope that the uptrend in crude oil and the downtrend in financials would soon reverse. As we've seen, the prevailing trends have persisted and have gone even further than many thought was possible. Even if these trends do start to shift, it isn't likely to be smooth or easy and the market will still have to overcome the recent technical deterioration.
Proceed with caution at this point and protect that capital. Too many folks seem to be looking for a quick bounce, and the news flow isn't suggestive that we are going to quickly and easily price in our new worries. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SHFL +11.2%, PBY +7.7%, PLL +1.2%... M&A news: HIRE +44.2% (discloses that it entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger with US Investigations Services and a Hercules Acquisition; each share to receive $15.60 in cash), CADA +5.3% (to be acquired by an affiliate of Great Hill Partners for $40.50/share)... Other news: AMSC +20.8% (receives $450 mln follow-on order from China's Sinovel Wind), URI +15.4% (announces planned tender offer to repurchase up to 27.16 mln shares of its common stock through a modified dutch auction at a price not less than $22 nor greater than $25 per share), BPAX +6.9% (engages Deutsche Bank as its strategic advisor), HK +3.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: CNXT +5.5% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), SM +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CMGI -18.1% NBF -5.7%, NX -3.8%, TXN -1.5%... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices on a stronger dollar: DROOY -5.1%, LMC -4.2%, MT -3.2%, BBL -3.2%, RTP -3.2%, HMY -3.1%, GFI -2.8%, BHP -2.7%, AUY -2.4%, AU -2.3%, FCX -1.7%, RIO -1.6% (DJ reports the co is planning to raise at least $30 bln in order to finance an overseas acquisition), AAUK -1.5%, GOLD -1.1%... Select oil/gas names showing weakness: ACGY -5.5%, WNR -5.0% (initiated with a Sell at Soleil), E -3.1%, BP -2.2%, TOT -1.8%, RDS.A -1.6%, XTO -1.3% (announces acquisition of Hunt Petroleum for $4.186 bln in cash and stock; increasing production FY08 growth)... Select airline stocks showing weakness with strength in crude oil: LUV -8.4% (trading ex-dividend), UAUA -4.3%, AAI -4.3%, CAL -4.0%, AMR -2.9%... Other news: ALXA -8.5% (announces preliminary results from its AZ-002 Phase 2a trial; study did not meet its primary endpoints), TMX -7.6% (Telmex Internacional spun off from Telefonos de Mex in December and will begin trading today), VE -6.2% (trading lower after weakness in overseas trading), SQNM -6.1% (discloses that it was named as a defendant in a complaint filed by plaintiffs BEC and Orchid Cellmark), SHPGY -4.2% (still checking), TS -3.5% (still checking), BWP -3.4% (announces offering of 10 mln common units), WLT -2.9% (announces public offering of 2.8 mln of common stock), TEVA -2.5% (still checking), ALU -2.5% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: NVDA -3.7% (downgraded to Sell at FTN Midwest), Q -2.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Raymond James), LINE -2.8% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), LEH -2.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia and downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), MDR -1.8% (downgraded to Add at Calyon), CLR -1.6% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank).
The three largest holders of Western Refining’s USD 1.3bn term loan (who represent roughly 57% of the term loan, whish is enough to block the amendment) oppose the company’s amendment request and have drafted a more lucrative counter-proposal, according to two lenders. Should the company capitulate to the term loan lenders’ demands, the three-year spread to maturity on the term loan would be Libor+ 700bps. Crack spreads are nearly double from where they were in early May, profit margins going forward won’t be improved enough to prevent a breach of existing covenants.
Amtech kaitseb päikeseenergia sektorit ja sealseid FSLRi ja SPWRi:
Solar Technology: Amtech notes that with continued issues surrounding Spanish legislative clarity, large installers are currently planning to allocate very few resources to Spain in 4Q08. They think this could change dramatically should they gain clarity by the end of the summer. The firm continues to view FSLR as the best positioned module manufacturer during periods of legislative uncertainty given the IRR proposition it offers installers in Germany, which remains the baseline demand geography for the industry. They believe that astute installers and module manufacturers are beginning to allocate significant resources towards the Italian market, and that these players will be better positioned to weather Spanish demand uncertainty given higher visibility into demand (SPWR). They believe legislative uncertainty is creating attractive long-term entry points in both FSLR and SPWR.