Skandinaavias tuleb kindlustusfirmadel maksta välja kahjutasusid tormikahjustuste eest (autod, elamud, jne.). Kas need on piisavad, et mõjutada kindlustusfirmade kasumeid? Iga kindlustaja on ennast edasi kindlustanud, kuid teatava koefitsendiga makstakse omast taskust kahjud kinni. Kui keegi maldaks teha eeltööd, võib-olla oleks võimalus bettida Soomes kindlustusfirmade langusele, kui seda saab teha.
Kui oletada, et Baltikumis on tormi- ja veekahjustuste kogusumma x, siis kindlustused korvavad neist autode ja elamute puhul 0,… korda x raha. Riided, tehnika, sisustus ja muu selline makstakse kinni omast taskust. Kuna säästetud pole baltlastel palju, siis võib vaja minna krediitkaarte ja laene ehitusmaterjalide ja kodutarvete ostmiseks. Ehk siis siit küsimus – kas see oleks piisav, et mõjutada Hansapanga kasumit positiivselt lühiajaliselt? >> äkki emotsioonide taustal väike jõnks ülesse homme?
Temaatika vajaks muidugi eeltööd ennem, kui panustada.
Hansapank on tegev valdavalt elukindlustuse turul. See mis nädalavahetusel toimus, juhtus varakindlustuse vallas. Hansat see kindlasti kuidagi ei mõjuta. Skandinaavia/Soome kindlustusseltse ka ilmselt suht vähe. Loodusõnnetuste eest kaitseks pead kindlustuslepingu sõlmimisel eraldi kaitse küsima ja ka siis on see küllaltki täpselt reguleeritud. Kindlustusseltsid teevad ka ikka äri ja hoolitsevad selle eest, et nende kasum kannatada ei saak. Sellel teemal eesti ajakirjanduses ka küllalt palju infot.
Tormis kahjustada saanud eramute ja korterite omanikele ning ettevõtetele pakub Hansapank laenude tasumisel kuni 6-kuulist maksepuhkust.
POH1V avanes kõrgemal eelmisest sulgemishinnast, läks 2,6% plussi ja siis vajus kiirelt avanemishinnast nõksa allapoole (hetkel +0,45%)
Hansa puhul ei pidanud ma silmas kindlustust, vaid laenu ja krediitide kasvu. Mõtlesin, et kuna siin Eestis ei liiguta uudised (välja arvatud firmaraportid) eriti turgu, et võiks olla äkki sedapuhku tegu asjaoludega mis võiks mõjutada, kuid sama väikselt.
Uitmõtted, millega eksisin.
07:14 NOK Nokia upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan (15.25 )
JP Morgan upgrades NOK to Neutral from Underweight. Firm believes that Nokia continued to see strong volume and market share trends in Q4 and the positive volume trends continue to be offset in the short term by weaker gross margin performance, on mix at Networks and due to the price /specification trade off at phones. Thus, while they see some upside potential to the co's guided Q4 EPS they do not expect this to be substantial in scale. An underspend on marketing (as per Q3) could perhaps push figs. slightly higher. In '05, the firm thinks that there is scope for the co to build on improved share with better mix. They also believe that industry inventory risk has receded somewhat. Finally, a pullback from handsets by Siemens could benefit the co.
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Rev Shark:
Don't Let an Off Week Alter Your Discipline
1/10/05 8:38 AM ET
"Patience and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish."
-- John Quincy Adams
The first week of 2005 delivered some of the weakest trading action in some time. What made it particularly painful for many was that they had ignored overbought conditions and were heavily long in expectation of seasonal strength to kick off the new year. Of course, the market, in its typical fashion, took advantage of the situation to dish out as much pain as it could to the greatest number of people.
Personally I had my worst week of trading since sometime back in 2003. Many of my small-cap favorites with solid fundamentals took sizeable hits as the Russell 2000 fell over 6% on the week. The intensity of the selling caught me by surprise, just as it did many others.
So how do we proceed after such a week? The first thing is to understand what mistakes you made. Most folks underestimated the overbought technical conditions and overestimated the likelihood of seasonal strength. The end of the year and the start of the new year generate some unusual trading action as investors position themselves for tax and reporting purposes. It was quite easy to anticipate that those factors would play out in a bullish fashion, as they usually do. The problem was that the market was just too extended to stay that way, even with seasonality.
The lesson is clear and we've paid our tuition, so where do we go from here? The answer is patience and persistence. Your primary goal at this point should be not to compound any errors you have made. Many investors start thinking that it's the market that is wrong and it is due to come back very quickly. Maybe it will but wait for some signs that things are getting better. Don't try to make up your losses immediately. Focus on protecting your capital and waiting for better trading odds before you act.
After a poor week many traders try to overcompensate by becoming more aggressive. They let frustration take hold and lash out at the market forces that caused them pain. It is very easy to dig an even deeper hole when you act in that matter.
Don't let emotions drive you at this point. Focus on protecting capital, staying patient and working to find good opportunities. Don't give up and don't give in. Just keep plugging along and make protecting capital your number one goals.
Early indications this morning are only slightly positive despite three big merger deals on the wires. They are getting a lot of press but they seem to have been anticipated. There may be some sympathetic action in related stocks in the same sectors but I don't see any of these deals as big market drivers.
We also have the kick off of earnings tonight with the Alcoa (AA:NYSE) report. Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) tomorrow night will be the main focus this week and is likely to be the best candidate to move the market. The bulk of earnings reports don't kick in until next week.
Investors are a little shaky after last week. Many were burned trying to catch a bounce and they are likely to be a little more cautious now, which is probably what is needed in order to produce a bounce. The sedate open this morning is a good sign.
Gary B. Smith:
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