Börsipäev 10. detsember

Investeerimine
1

Euroopa ja USA suutsid eile lõpetada päeva kerges plussis seda vaatamata mõnede Euroopa perifeeriariikide võlakirja yieldide tõusule ning Iirimaa krediidireitingu alandamisele kolme pügala võrra (Fitch). Hetkel viitavad Euroopa ja USA indeksite futuurid positiivse sentimendi jätkumisele.

Tänast kalendrit vaadates Euroopast olulisi makrouudiseid oodata pole. Mitmel poole teatatakse vaid oktoobrikuu tööstustoodangu näitajaid. Päeva kõrgpunktiks saab olema Michigani tarbijasentimenti detsembrikuu küsitlus (kl 16.55), mille osas ootab konsensus paranemist 71,6 punktilt 72,5 peale. USA oktoobrikuu kaubandusbilansi statistika annab aga aimu, kuidas on alanud neljas kvartal riigi majanduse jaoks.

2

USA väikeinvestorite sentiment püsib 14. nädalat üle pikaajalise keskmise, milleks on 39%. Viimati oli see periood nõnda pikk 2004.a, kui bullish sentiment püsis 19 nädalat üle ajaloolise keskmise. Olulise statistikana on seekord välja toodud ka bullish ja bearish sentimenti spread, mis oli 30,5 protsendipunkti. Viimati oli positiivne spread suurem 2007.a veebruaris, kui bullish sentiment oli 53,9% ja bearish 22,3%. Sellele järgnenud nädalat tõid turgudel kerge korrektsiooni, kuid mõne kuu pärast liiguti juba kõrgematel tasemetel. Kes soovib antud küsitluse tausta kohta rohkem teada saada, siis WSJ lahkas nii positiivseid kui negatiivseid külgi eilses artiklis Link

3

Tänane Reuters kirjutab, et Hiina suurim sotsiaalvõrgustiku firma Oak Pacific Interactive on palganud Credit Suisse Group AG ja Deutsche Bank AG, et aidata ettevõttel USA-s läbi viia IPO. Aktsiaemissioon peaks aset leidma järgmise aasta esimeses pooles.

Oak Pacific Interactive omab Hiinas suurimaid sotsiaalvõrgustiku veebilehti Renren ja Nuomi, mis on sarnased USA-s tegutsevatele Groupon ja Mop`le.

Hiina IPO-d on USA-s sisse saanud tõelise hoo ning purustanud viimase 35 aasta rekordi. Kõigist USA-s aset leidnud IPO-dest moodustavad Hiina firmad 23% võrreldes 2000. aasta 1%-ga.

Sotsiaalvõrgustike populaarsus Hiinas on kasvanud just viimaste aastatega ning olgu öeldud, et Hiina on maailma suurim internetiturg, kus on 420 miljonit kasutajat ja umbes pooled on ka aktiivsed erinevates sotsiaalvõrgustike keskkondades.

4

Eile toimus S&P 500 nimekirjas väike verevahetus ning värsketeks liikmeteks said Netflix (NFLX) ja F5 Networks (FFIV) ning New York Times (NYT) ja Eastman Kodak (EK) arvati nimekirjast jällegi välja.

See uudis andis kindlasti innustust juurde NFLX investoritele ja aktsia on eelturul üleval 4,75%, kaubeldes $200 tasemel.

5
Hiina tõstab pankade kohustuslikku reservmäära 50 baaspunkti võrra
6
Suurbritannia novembrikuu tootjahinnaindeksid (output) tuli oodatud 4,0% asemel 3,9% (Y/Y). GBPUSD tegi tänase tipu 1,5860 juures, kus kaubeldi viimati 23. novembril.
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Itaalia III kvartali SKT tuli 0,3% vs oodatud 0,2% (Q/Q) ja 1,1% vs oodatud 1,0% (Y/Y).
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USA dollar on euro suhtes täna suhteliselt stabiilne olnud, kaubeldes hetkel avanemistaseme 1,3240 juures, kuid Austraalia dollari vastu on USD üle 0,5% miinuses ja kaupleb hetkel 0,9888 tasemel.
9

Täna on Credit Suisse väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega DryShips (DRYS) kohta.

Credit Suisse analüütikud tõstavad DRYS-i aktsia reitingut „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $5 pealt $9 peale.

DRYS has been an event driven stock over the last few weeks driven higher – by rig contracts for a drillship and an extension on one of its semi-submersibles; securing newbuilding drillship options (4); bridže financing on its 1st drillships; the completion of the ATM; and the announcement of the private placement of Ocean Rig. The remaining catalysts for DRYS are additional rig contracts and more debt financing.

DRYS has been busy raising money over the last few weeks... The company announced the completion of its $350 million ATM which increases DRYS share count to 327 million shares – after adjusting for the Primelead shares we estimate the share count at 377 million.

We still expect DRYS to remain a catalyst driven stock in the near term driven by additional rig employment contracts and the securing of permanent financing on DRYS two unfinanced drillships. We expect these catalysts to push the stock higher as each additional event is another step closer towards DRYS successfully building a deep water rig company with scale.

Kuna viimaste nädalatega on DRYS läbi teinud korraliku ralli, siis nendivad analüütikud, et aktsia liikumine on peamiselt olnud kannustatud uute puurimislaevade lepingutest ning raha kaasamisest. DRYS viimaste nädalate jooksul raha kogunud väga kiiresti ja analüütikud usuvad, et aktsia on lähemas tulevikus mõjutatud samadest katalüsaatoritest ehk teisisõnu uutest tellimisetusest, sest iga samm on lähemale ehitamaks firmast edukat süvavee puurimislaevade firmat.

Kauplemise seisukohast on DRYS-i näol tegemist hea liikujaga ja kuna täna on positiivse reitinguga väljas Credit Suisse, siis ei pea võimatuks, et aktsia liigub täna $6,50 +, kui turg ka kaasa aitab.

Hetkel kaupleb eelturul aktsia 4,8% plusspoolel, ca $6,30 tasemel.

10

Goldman Sachs on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Procter&Gamble (PG) kohta.

Goldman Sachsi analüütikud tõstavad PG reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $71 pealt $75 peale.

  • Sales should accelerate. P&G’s huge push into white spaces can drive DD EM growth, above a
    HSD industry pace. US growth can pick-up by 100 bp to 2%. HHPC is the most leveraged
    Staples sector to better US employment, and pricing should stabilize after 2010 declines.
  • Leverage back in model. Ad spending is at a 20-year high, and P&G has spent heavily behind
    expansion efforts. We expect margins to climb 50-100 bp in 2011 as P&G harvests these investments and steps-up productivity efforts.
  • Consensus underestimates EM growth. The opportunity is enormous. Category sales can grow 8%/year for four more decades on rising incomes. P&G can grow at a faster 10%-12% pace: (1) P&G’s aggressive white space push expands its EM sales potential by 50%, (2) Scale drives advantages in distribution and costs, (3) P&G is the top BRIC advertiser across all industries.
  • The worst is likely past in US
    2010 results in the US have disappointed but we see less drag in 2011. Higher employment boosts
    demand; P&G and its competitors will back away from inefficient promotions that plagued 2010.

Analüütikud põhjendavad oma reitingumuutust eelkõige paraneva müügiga ning hindadega järgmisel aastal. Lisaks sellele on analüütikud veendunud, et konsensus alahindab arenevate turgude potentsiaali, mis nende sõnul on tohutu ning ühtlasi eeldatakse, et USA turul on nüüdseks kõige halvemad ajad üle elatud.

PG puhul on tegemist aktsiaga, mis on tuntud väga tasase liikujana ehk siis märkimisväärset tõusu ei tasu täna kindlasti oodata. Samas jäi see mulle silma seetõttu, et paljud turuosalised on esmatarbekaupade sektori suhtes hakanud positiivsemaks muutuma ning üldjuhul on PG alati andnud kauplemisvõimaluse.

Hetkel kaupleb aktsia eelturul 0,8% plusspoolel, $63,40 tasemel.

11

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ESL +6.1%, PLL +4.5%.

M&A news: THC +52.7% (Community Health Systems offers to acquire Tenet Healthcare for $6.00 per share in cash and stock), BEC +12.5% (Bloomberg TV reported that the co said it's looking to explore sale after buyout interest), CLFC +3.9% (Nara Bancorp and Center Financial Announce Merger of Equals; CLFC shareholders to receive fixed ratio of 0.7804 of a share of NARA; represents $7.16 per CLFC share).

Select ethanol/renewable energy names ticking higher after Dems added grants/credits to tax bill: PEIX +12.4%, BIOF +7.4%, NGBF +2.8%, ADM +1.1%.

Healthcare facility related names ticking higher following THC/CYH news: HMA + 3.7% LPNT + 1.2%.

Other news: EPCT +42.9% (reports new analysis supports Ceplene's favorable impact on overall survival), FFIV +5.1% and NFLX +4.7% (will be added to the S&P500), CVC +4.9% (will replace King Pharmaceuticals in the S&P 500), MCP +4.6% (Molycorp and Sumitomo agree to $130 mln equity and debt investment in Molycorp in exchange for Rare Earth supply agreement , NFX +3.9% (will be added to the S&P500), VRSN +3.1% (declares $3.00 per share special dividend ), CMO +2.1% (declares Q4 common dividend $0.39/share, up from $0.26/share), NVLS +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), OXY +1.4% (to divest Argentine Assets; purchase new U.S. Assets; increase dividend), YOKU +1.3% (announces exercise of Green Shoe Option), DMND +0.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

Analyst comments: DRYS +5.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), LULU +2.3% (upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies), ARG +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), COF +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital), PG +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman),

12
October Trade Balance -$38.7 bln vs -$44.5 bln Briefing.com consensus; September revised to -$44.6 bln from -$44.0 bln
13
EURUSD võttis suuna alla: hetkel -0,20% ja kaupleb päeva põhja 1,3210 juures.
14

Eile teatas oma neljanda kvartali tulemused Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR).

Kuigi tulemused olid oodatust paremad, siis järgmise aasta prognoose firma vähendas ning ühtlasi teatas GMCR, et edaspidi ei anna enam tootegruppide kohta täpsemaid prognoose.

FY11 Revenue guidance was better than expected at +45% to +53% Y/Y. Unfortunately, the mid-point of FY11 EPS guidance was reduced from $1.27 to $1.24 - margins did not follow through. The company has decided to shift from providing K-cup guidance to providing quarterly & annual sales guidance – less disclosure has created uncertainty.

Aktsia kukkus järelturul kuni 18% miinusesse ja täna on mitmed analüüsimajad väljas aktsiat kaitsmas ning oma ostusoovitusi kinnitamas.

Näiteks PiperJaffray analüütikud soovitavad turuosalistel aktsia nõrkust ära kasutada ning ostupoolele asuda. Analüütikud on veendunud, et turuosaliste ebakindlus tuleviku suhtes väheneb, kui firma jätkab oodatust paremate tulemustega. Analüütikud kinnitavad oma osta soovitust koos $37 hinnasihiga.

Buy on weakness - maintain $37 price objective. GMCR shares were down materially (18%) post-earnings release due to uncertainty on margins, mix, and specific product guidance. We think concerns will moderate as the company continues to beat sales and earnings expectations during FY11. We think Green Mountain's growth is in early innings and remains on a attractive earning path.

Merrill Lynchi analüütikud eeldavad,et käibekasvuga paranevad ka marginaalid ning juhtkonna aktiivne turundustöö kannab järgmine aasta kindlasti vilja. Analüütikute arvates on firma kasv alles algusjärgus ning seetõttu kinnitavad ka oma ostusoovitust koos $44 hinnasihiga.

Management acknowledged several growing pains—including an increase in quality issues for brewers and capacity constraints for certain K- cup portion packs—adversely impacted full-year results. Despite current challenges, we believe Green Mountain’s long-term outlook remains appealing, with the residential brewer penetration rate on the rise and the introduction of new varieties and expanded distribution of K-cups poised to drive higher portion pack sales over time.


William Blair&Company analüütikud usuvad, et pikemas perspektiivis on GMCR näol siiski tegemist väga paljutõtava ettevõttega. Analüütikud kinnitavad oma „osta“ soovitust.

Hetkel kaupleb GMCR $32 kandis, ca 14,5% miinuspoolel. Seega on aktsia juba mõned protsendid põrganud ja kui keegi otsustab seda ideed kaasa teha, siis tuletan ikka meelde, et taolised põrkemängud on väga riskantsed ning kogused tuleb hoida väikesed ning stopid kindlalt paigal.

15

Rev Shark: Be Vigilant
12/10/2010 9:15 AM

The only people who never tumble are those who never mount the high wire.
 -- Oprah Winfrey

The market continues to walk the high wire in exceptionally fine fashion. There are a few wobbles as technical and fundamental negatives pile up, but market players just aren't feeling very worried right now. The dip buyers are providing excellent support and the bears don't even seem to be trying very hard.

One of the toughest things to do in trading is to stick with the trend as it becomes increasingly extended and more and more people look for a pullback. It never fails to surprise me how stubborn a trend can be but, as I've written often, the market just doesn't care what we think is reasonable or appropriate. Trends will almost always last longer than we think they will.

I have to admit that it is tempting to keep looking for a market top but there are simply no signs of it in the price action. Sentimentrader.com, which uses a variety of studies, states that its indicators are at bearish extremes that have been seen only three times since 2000 -- yet the market continues to act totally unconcerned.

One thing I'm finding rather troubling about the market isn't the price action but the huge number of secondary offerings I'm seeing lately. There seems to be several each day and it is pretty clear that management teams at many companies feel that it is a good idea to sell their stock while they can. So far it hasn't mattered, but obviously there are a lot of insiders who don't think the market is all that cheap and it is not something that we can just ignore.

Perhaps positive end-of-the-year seasonality is contributing to the mood but the market seems surprisingly complacent. There doesn't appear to be any great worry or fear. If there is any fear or worry, it is about being left behind as the market continues to trend higher.

My approach to a market like this is to give the benefit of the doubt to the trend and to stay with it as long as I can. That doesn't mean blindly buying -- you still want to look for prudent entry points -- but it does mean maintaining a bullish bias and a focus on long-side trades.

Respecting the trend doesn't relieve us of the responsibility of being vigilant and watching for signs of trouble. The more extended the market becomes, the more careful we want to be. But we want to avoid acting in anticipation of a turn rather than waiting for signs that the market is actually turning. I suspect that traders tend to lose more money anticipating a change in trend than they do with staying with momentum too long. At least that should be the case if you are disciplined and use good money management.

The market has a slight gap up developing for the third time this week. The prior two gap-up opens have been quickly sold but then the dip-buyers jumped in and held us steady. The bears cannot gain any real downside traction.

We'll see what they can do with the positive open this morning but the dip-buyers have been doing so well and have had so few chances that they are unlikely to go away easily. There is some strong underlying support, so there is no reason to believe it will suddenly collapse.

None.

16
Michigani tarbijasentimendiks kerkis 74,2 punktile, kujunedes oodatust paremaks
17

Veel hommikuse NFLX-i jutu jätkuks: J.P. Morgan spekuleerib, et Netflix lisatakse täna õhtul Nasdaq 100 nimekirja ka.

Veel näeb JPM uute liikmetena FFIV ja AKAM-t.

Netflix Inc Hearing JP Morgan speculates on Nasdaq 100 additions expected to be announced this evening .
- JP Morgan sees FFIV, AKAM, and NFLX as possible additions, FWLT and HOLX as like deletions in the re-ranking and rebalancing. The changes are likely to be effective on December 20.

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Tänastest ideedest töötas kõige paremini kõige riskantsem idee ehk siis GMCR. Avanemisel oli võimalik positsioon soetada $32,60-$32,80 juures ja sealt liikus aktsia sisuliselt peatumata kuni $33,80-ni välja. Kes söandasid kaasa teha, need on ilmselt oma otsusega rahul. Hetkeks on aktsia tagasi andnud ning kaupleb $33,20 kandis.

PG liikus natukene tagasihoidlikumalt, kui ma lootsin, aga sellegipoolest üsna eelduste kohaselt. Avanemisel oli võimalus positsioon soetada $63,30 kandist ja ca $0,30 kasumit oli ka saadaval, aga ma ise siiski ootasin, et aktsia käib ka $64 all ära. Hetkel kaupleb PG $63,53 kandis.

DRYS kahjuks täna kauplemisvõimalust sisuliselt ei pakkunudki. Kes oma ostu oskasid täpselt ajastada, siis neil ilmselt õnnestus ca $0,10 saada, aga oodatud liikumist täna sealt kahjuks ei tulnud. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $6,33 tasemel, 5,3% plusspoolel.

19
OXM Group tegi Supatcha-le (SAEI) ülevõtupakkumise $1.75 aktsia kohta, aktsia hetkel 106% tõusus $0.80 tasemel.
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(US) NOV MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$150.4B V -$138BE (26TH STRAIGHT MONTH OF BUDGET DEFICITS)

- Total Receipts: $148.9B v $133.5B y/y
- Total Spending: $299.35B v $253.8B y/y