Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CIEN +5.1%, MEI +3.5% (ticking higher), SHFL +3.4%, NVLS +1.9%, COO +1.8%, TGT +1%.
M&A related: JNS +2.7% (ticking higher; attributed to Susquehanna suggesting JNS as acquisition target).
Select UK related financial names showing strength following reports of reform delay: BCS +4.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), RBS +6.3%, LYG +3.2%.
A few casino/gaming names trading higher boosted by Macau data: MPEL +3.8%, LVS +1.7%, WYNN +1.5%,
Other news: NOK +3.4% (still checking), S +2.7% (continued strength), ITRI +2.2% (appoints new CEO), AMRN +1% (provides successful MARINE Phase 3 clinical trial results published in The American Journal of Cardiology; summarizes additional results of trial).
Analyst comments: CTSH +0.6% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Needham).
Initial Claims 409K vs 407K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 421K from 417K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.735 mln from 3.753 mln
Continuing Claims falls to 3.735 mln from 3.753 mln
Ei liha ega kala. Turg oleks rõõmustanud kehvemate numbrite üle, sest siis annaks Ben septembri lõpus kindlasti raha, nüüd aga ei pruugi anda...
Ilmselt mõjutas Irene ka statistikat - ilma selleta oleks number mõnevõrra isegi kõrgem olnud
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CWTR -14.2%, SAI -9.3% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), GEF -8.7%, GPS -4.7%, ZUMZ -4.5%, OXM -2.7%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: DB -2.5%, STD -1.9%, BBVA -1%.
Other news: DCTH -11.6% (announces top-line results from Metastatic Colorectal cohort in Phase II trial of Chemosaturation System), CGV -4.9% (still checking), BK -2.3% (Bank of NY CEO Robert Kelly steps down), BP -1.8% (under continued pressure on Moscow raid report), SDRL -1.1% (receives 14.5 mln share allocation of Archer Ltd in a private placement at NOK30 per share; co now owns 145,778,446 shares, corresponding to 39.81% of the issued and outstanding shares in Archer).
Analyst comments: RPM -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer), B -1.4% (Barnes Group downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), GS -0.6% (Goldman Sachs downgraded to Hold from Buy at ISI Group).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CWTR -14.2%, SAI -9.3% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), GEF -8.7%, GPS -4.7%, ZUMZ -4.5%, OXM -2.7%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: DB -2.5%, STD -1.9%, BBVA -1%.
Other news: DCTH -11.6% (announces top-line results from Metastatic Colorectal cohort in Phase II trial of Chemosaturation System), CGV -4.9% (still checking), BK -2.3% (Bank of NY CEO Robert Kelly steps down), BP -1.8% (under continued pressure on Moscow raid report), SDRL -1.1% (receives 14.5 mln share allocation of Archer Ltd in a private placement at NOK30 per share; co now owns 145,778,446 shares, corresponding to 39.81% of the issued and outstanding shares in Archer).
Analyst comments: RPM -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer), B -1.4% (Barnes Group downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), GS -0.6% (Goldman Sachs downgraded to Hold from Buy at ISI Group).
Futuurid on roheliseks tõmmanud.
Keep Digging
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
| Sep 01, 2011 |
"The crisis is not over. Not just in Europe is it not over, it is also not over in other regions of the world."
-- Juergen Stark, European Central Bank policymaker
Soft economic data in Europe are creating some early selling pressure as we await weekly unemployment claims and the ISM report. The market looked tired yesterday as the early strength fizzled and the close was weak. But bullishness has been on the rise recently, as hope that the Fed would ride to the rescue one again has been percolating.
The major problem this market faces right now is that traders are wrestling with a slew of big-picture negatives. The European sovereign debt issue is far from resolved and there are clear signs that the world economy is slowing once again.
Juergen Stark, who is quoted above, also commented that the U.S. has an "enormous" debt problem and lacks the structures to get the problem under control. He is not alone in his view, and persistent unemployment and a faltering economy are not making it any easier to make a counter argument.
It doesn’t take a genius to conclude that the economy has issues. There are plenty of people out there who can dissect and discuss those issues in great detail. My focus is primarily on what it means to the market and how we can navigate the cross currents and make some money.
Just because the U.S. has debt issues and a lousy economy doesn’t mean that stocks can’t go up, although it certainly doesn’t make it easier. Over the past few days, we have already seen that just a hint that the Fed is going to act with some form of QE3 can drive stocks up. Many question whether this really is going to produce a lasting benefit this time, but in the near term, the perception of the power of the printing press gives the market a boost.
As always, we have to focus primarily on the price action and not let the debate about fundamentals unduly influence us. There are always compelling bullish arguments and brilliant bearish theories but, ultimately, the market decides and that is what we need to focus on.
Unfortunately, the big picture isn’t all that rosy. The S&P 500 has had four straight positive days and has even managed to break through overhead resistance at 1205-1208 but we saw an intraday reversal yesterday and momentum slowed substantially. The big breakdown in early August has created substantial overhead resistance and even the most optimistic bull doesn’t seem to think we will be able to make it any further than 1250 or so before we encounter some still headwinds.
What I find most troubling about the market is not the state of the major indices but the state of the vast majority of individual stocks. I see no real leadership other than precious metals and most charts need more work before they will be very appealing.
Take a look at some of the high-beta, big-cap favorites such as Google (GOOG), Netflix (NFLX), Salesforce.com (CRM) and IBM (IBM). They have all bounced straight up on lighter volume and are now in need of some consolidation so that the short-termers who caught the lows can exist and stronger hands can move in.
It looks like the going to the upside will be tough, especially with the negative news flow we are seeing. The Fed can help to prevent the bears from becoming too comfortable but the technical picture needs to improve before we can put much capital to work.
I would really like to be more optimistic and talk about all the great looking setups that I can’t wait to buy, but they just aren’t there right now. We’ll keep digging and watch for things to develop but the big danger is forcing buys when conditions just don’t justify it.
Weekly jobless claims come out at 8.30 a.m. EDT and then the ISM number will be released at 10 a.m. That will set the tone, but, technically, conditions are ripe for some selling and we’ll have to watch for even positive news to be sold.
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
| Sep 01, 2011 |
"The crisis is not over. Not just in Europe is it not over, it is also not over in other regions of the world."
-- Juergen Stark, European Central Bank policymaker
Soft economic data in Europe are creating some early selling pressure as we await weekly unemployment claims and the ISM report. The market looked tired yesterday as the early strength fizzled and the close was weak. But bullishness has been on the rise recently, as hope that the Fed would ride to the rescue one again has been percolating.
The major problem this market faces right now is that traders are wrestling with a slew of big-picture negatives. The European sovereign debt issue is far from resolved and there are clear signs that the world economy is slowing once again.
Juergen Stark, who is quoted above, also commented that the U.S. has an "enormous" debt problem and lacks the structures to get the problem under control. He is not alone in his view, and persistent unemployment and a faltering economy are not making it any easier to make a counter argument.
It doesn’t take a genius to conclude that the economy has issues. There are plenty of people out there who can dissect and discuss those issues in great detail. My focus is primarily on what it means to the market and how we can navigate the cross currents and make some money.
Just because the U.S. has debt issues and a lousy economy doesn’t mean that stocks can’t go up, although it certainly doesn’t make it easier. Over the past few days, we have already seen that just a hint that the Fed is going to act with some form of QE3 can drive stocks up. Many question whether this really is going to produce a lasting benefit this time, but in the near term, the perception of the power of the printing press gives the market a boost.
As always, we have to focus primarily on the price action and not let the debate about fundamentals unduly influence us. There are always compelling bullish arguments and brilliant bearish theories but, ultimately, the market decides and that is what we need to focus on.
Unfortunately, the big picture isn’t all that rosy. The S&P 500 has had four straight positive days and has even managed to break through overhead resistance at 1205-1208 but we saw an intraday reversal yesterday and momentum slowed substantially. The big breakdown in early August has created substantial overhead resistance and even the most optimistic bull doesn’t seem to think we will be able to make it any further than 1250 or so before we encounter some still headwinds.
What I find most troubling about the market is not the state of the major indices but the state of the vast majority of individual stocks. I see no real leadership other than precious metals and most charts need more work before they will be very appealing.
Take a look at some of the high-beta, big-cap favorites such as Google (GOOG), Netflix (NFLX), Salesforce.com (CRM) and IBM (IBM). They have all bounced straight up on lighter volume and are now in need of some consolidation so that the short-termers who caught the lows can exist and stronger hands can move in.
It looks like the going to the upside will be tough, especially with the negative news flow we are seeing. The Fed can help to prevent the bears from becoming too comfortable but the technical picture needs to improve before we can put much capital to work.
I would really like to be more optimistic and talk about all the great looking setups that I can’t wait to buy, but they just aren’t there right now. We’ll keep digging and watch for things to develop but the big danger is forcing buys when conditions just don’t justify it.
Weekly jobless claims come out at 8.30 a.m. EDT and then the ISM number will be released at 10 a.m. That will set the tone, but, technically, conditions are ripe for some selling and we’ll have to watch for even positive news to be sold.
Oma mõju on Irenel ilmselt ka jaekaubandusele, sest torm tabas poode just kõige magusamal ajal, kuna augustis tehakse sisseoste algava kooliaasta tarbeks.
See mõju on ajutine, sest ega vajalikud kooliostud tegemata jää.
Jah, tõenäoliselt küll ja võib septembris kaasa tuua rohkem allahindlusi. Citi analüütikute sõnul on kõige suuremaks kannatajaks Macy`s (M) ja Saks (SKS), kuna 30% nende poode asus selles piirkonnas, kus Irene kõige aktiivsem oli.
Augusti töötleva tööstuse ISM oodatust oluliselt parem ja turud kohe ka rohelises.
August ISM Index 50.6 vs 48.5 Briefing.com consensus; July 50.9
August ISM Index 50.6 vs 48.5 Briefing.com consensus; July 50.9
Ka nende numbrite valguses ei paista mulle seda olukorda, mis õigustaks seda viimasel ajal maad võtnud maailmalõpumeeleolu. Jah, olukord pole ehk väga roosiline, kuid ei anna ka põhjust depressiooni langeda ja väsimatult double dip-ist jahvatada. Tundub, et kusagil struktuurides on kallutatud jõud :-)
Kui nüüd tegelikult majandusnäitajad polegi nii halvad kui arvatud, siis sellega on ka QE3 tuleku tõenäosus vähenenud ehk teisisõnu on ilmselt ka septembris turul oodata väga heitlikke meeleolusid.
The Fed purchased a total of $2.74 bln worth of 2014/2015 maturities through POMO as delears looked to put back $16.69 bln
See ongi minu arvates selle QuuEenduse kõike absurdsem tulemus - turud on stressis, kui majandusel läheb paremini arvatust ja rõõmustavad, kui läheb halvemini. Ega siin ei aita muud, kui võõrutuskuur koos kõikide kaasnähtudega. Ei tea, millal küll terve mõistus võita võiks?
Tööstuse jutule veel lisaks: Võrreldes möödunud aastaga oli augustis Chrysleri automüük 31% ja GM 18% parem.
Vaatamata keerulisele augustile, millele andsid tooni volatiilsed turud, rasked ilmastikuolud ja USA võlakriis, õnnestus USA jaemüüjatel näidata siiski vägagi korralikke numbreid ehk möödunud aastaga võrreldes kasvas jaemüük 5,5%.
Samas võib Financial Timesi vahendusel lugeda, et osade firmade jaoks tõi august kaasa languse.
Gap, the struggling clothing retailer, posted a 6 per cent decline in sales, while Kohl’s, a middle market department store, reported a 1.9 per cent fall in sales. JC Penney, another department store, also reported a 1.9 per cent drop in sales.
Samas võib Financial Timesi vahendusel lugeda, et osade firmade jaoks tõi august kaasa languse.
Gap, the struggling clothing retailer, posted a 6 per cent decline in sales, while Kohl’s, a middle market department store, reported a 1.9 per cent fall in sales. JC Penney, another department store, also reported a 1.9 per cent drop in sales.
Paul Tudor Jones, on üks parimaid kauplejaid, kes kunagi elanud on ja Business Insider on välja toonud mõned ta kuulsamad ütlused kauplemise kohta ning päris kindlasti tasub tema õpetussõnu kuulda võtta igal ühel, kelle eesmärk on kauplemises edu saavutada.
Valisin siia mõned oma lemmikud:
"Every day I assume every position I have is wrong."
“You adapt, evolve, compete or die.”
"Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked."
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt."
"At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control."
Valisin siia mõned oma lemmikud:
"Every day I assume every position I have is wrong."
“You adapt, evolve, compete or die.”
"Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked."
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt."
"At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control."
Finisar prelim $0.21 vs $0.18 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $228.2 mln vs $228.48 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Täna siis jälle natuke punast. Eks investorid on ära hirmutatud - äkki homme ei tulegi hull jobs report ja siis on ju asi päris halb...