Börsipäev 1. märts

Kanada keskpank jättis intressimäärad vastavalt ootustele 1% peale.
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CEDC -12.5%, FDP -10.4% (light volume), YOKU -6.3%, WRC -4.6%, RRC -3.7%, BID -1.8%, PDLI -1.8%.

Other news: RXII -14.7% (prices an underwritten public offering of 6 mln units at $1.35 per unit for gross proceeds of $8.1 mln), TNGN -11.8% (Tengion announces pricing of $31.4 million private placement), RPC -7.7% (still checking), YRCW -7.5% (continued weakness), AVGO -4.8% (announces sale of 25 mln ordinary shares by selling shareholders), CHSP -4.3% (announces 11.5 mln offering of common stock), LVS -3.9% (discloses SEC subpoena in 10-K filing relating to its compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act), FITB -3.3% (still checking; co filed 10-k last night), TMH -3% (commences secondary offering of 8 mln shares of its common stock to be sold by certain stockholders), CLWR -2.6% (filed for a ~108.8 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), EOG -2.5% (announced the commencement of a registered underwritten public offering of 11.8 mln shares of its common stock), ECPG -2.1% (announces that certain selling stockholders intend to offer an aggregate of 2.45 mln shares of common stock), TRS -1.8% (files $250 mln mixed securities shelf offering; registers to sell 11.9 mln shares of common stock by shareholders), DANG -1.8% (ticking lower with YOKU), WES -1.7% (announces public offering of 3 mln common units), HCN -1.4% (intends to offer concurrent underwritten public offerings of 25.0 mln shares of its common stock and $625 mln of cumulative convertible perpetual preferred stock).

Analyst comments: HBC -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), DGI -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merriman), MCY -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James).

Block Out the Outside Noise
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/1/2011 8:38 AM EST

Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.
-- Albert Einstein

One of the most frustrating things about trading is how easy it can be to think yourself out of good trades. As we try to process all the news and data that we are hit with each day, it can become easy to find reasons to take action even though we are positioned well and our holdings are fine.

I have often wondered if I was better off in my early days of trading when I paid little attention to world affairs, macro-economic issues and politics and just focused on the stocks that I was trading. It is so easy to find big-picture reasons to makes moves that have little to do with the prospects of the individual stocks that you are holding.

On any given day, you can find a dozen compelling arguments about why the market should move up or down. There are always smart bulls and bears who can present logical and persuasive arguments for their positions. Many of them will be dead wrong but it is not because they are stupid or missing something obvious. It is because the market is just unknowable at times.

As we start a new month today, there are plenty of factors that can impact the market this morning. The unrest in the Middle East continues, Fed head Ben Bernanke appears before Congress and is likely to discuss quantitative easing, concerns about inflation continue to bubble up, worries about market valuation are increasing, sentiment is complacent, unemployment and housing remain weak and so on and so forth.

Crafting an investment thesis from all that data is not only easy to do but practically unavoidable. However, in many cases we would be better off if we took the much more simple approach and just stuck with the individual stocks we like -- as long as they are acting in a positive manner. Just block out all that outside noise and let the action in those individual stocks you are trading tell the story. It is an easy concept to state but it is not all that easy to implement. All of us are swayed to some degree by the analysis we read and hear. Some just reinforces what we already think and some of it causes us to amend our thinking. The problem is that it often distracts us from the most obvious thing we need to focus on, which is the action in the stocks we are holding.

One of those macro considerations that could easily impact our thinking today is the widely discussed phenomena of strength on the first day of a new month. The great bulk of gains over the past couple years have occurred on this day. The explanation is that new money is flowing in and that traders make this self-fulfilling to some degree.

At some point this phenomena will be too obvious to too many people and stop working but maybe we shouldn't think so hard about it and keep things simple. If our stocks continue to act well then we should just stay with them -- regardless of whether there is some market manipulation conspiracy or group think at work.

The market is set to open with some mild strength as oil, gold and silver are looking strong. If the first-of-the-month phenomenon starts to falter, the bears may try to press to take advantage of overly complacent bulls who have too much confidence in the pattern.

There are lots of things to consider but, most importantly, watch the stocks you own and take your cues from them. Don't think so hard about macro matters that you talk yourself out of good trades.
Bernanke hakkab USA senati panganduskomitee ees ütlusi andma; otsepildis saab seda jälgida siit.

Samal ajal annab ütlusi ka Geithner ja seda saab otsepildis jälgida siit.
February ISM Index 61.4 vs 60.5 Briefing.com consensus; January 60.8
January Construction Spending -0.7% vs -0.6% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -1.6% from -2.5%
Procter & Gamble: CNBC reporting that Rajat K. Gupta is stepping down from PG board following SEC suit
Turg on üha allapoole liikumas ja indeksid ca 1% miinuses. Samal ajal on nafta hind 99 dollari juurde tõusnud (+1.8%).
Uusi tippe proovib vallutada ka kuld – aprilli futuurid juba uutel tippudel1430.5 dollari juures. Võrreldes eelmise aasta lõpuga on kulla hind Lähis-Ida probleemide taustal aga üsna tagasihoidlikult käitunud. Praeguste geopoliitiliste pingete taustal võiks kullal olla siit veel ruumi ülespoole liikumiseks.

GLD (kulla ETF) viimase aasta liikumine:
On ikka lollid indud küll, loe ja imesta.

http://www.businessinsider.com/rajat-gupta-called-raj-rajartnam-as-soon-as-he-discovered-berkshire-hathway-investment-2011-3
Headlines crossing that Senate plans on holding a vote for a Continuing Resolution for government funding in the next 48 hours; The government is currently funded until March 4, midnight
CNBC reporting that the Senate is likely to accept House GOP spending bill which cuts $4 bln from 2011 spending and extends govt funding for 2 weeks
Mosaic ticking higher as renewed BHP for MOS rumor makes the rounds
Morgan Stanley avaldas 27. veebruaril analüüsi, milles kirjutatakse võimalikust solarite hinnalangusest. Analüütikute sõnul on FSLR ja SPWRA suurimaks turuks olnud viimastel kuudel Itaalia, kuid riigi majandusarengu ministeerium on vastu võtmas uut seadust (Decreto Legislativo), mis tähendab eelmainitud ettevõtetele mitmeid negatiivseid muutusi. Esiteks, kui projekt on saavutanud võimsuse 8GW, siis ei maksta ettevõttele enam elektri eest hinda koos preemiaga (puhas energia tootjate hinnad on tihtipeale kõrgemad, kui näiteks kivisöe elektrijaamad). Teiseks, põllumaal võib toota maksimaalselt 1MW, seejuures maksimaalselt 100KW hektari kohta (prognoositud 200KW asemel). Kolmandaks, seadus võetakse prognooside kohaselt vastu 3. märtsil.

FSLR aktsiahinna graafik
MS - Although SPWRA will be less exposed to a slow down in Italy compared to peers, due to the company's large North American utility scale pipeline in 2H11, we believe that there is risk to multiple compression for the stock, which has experienced significant multiple expansion over the past 3 months.

Although FSLR will be less exposed to a slow down in Italy compared to peers, due to the company's large North American utility scale pipeline, we believe that there is risk to multiple compression for FSLR which currently trades at ~2x the multiple of its Chinese peers.


Et siis tegelikult kukkus kogu sektor. Ülejäänud tegid seda hulga kaunimalt. Ja see ei olnud MS, vaid uudis ise, mida kommenteerisid sel päeval paljud. MS tegi trading calli lihtsalt. MS mõju FSLR-le oli veebrauari alguspäevadel näha, Suht teflon stock oli siis nii MS kui teiste dg-de peale.