Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Office Depot (ODP) ei vaja vist erilist tutvustamist LHV klientide jaoks. Aktsiad kukkusid päris rängalt peale seda kui firma teatas, et dollari nõrgenemine vähendab selle kvartali kasumit mõne sendi võrra. Lisaks sellele teatas mõne nädala eest merchandising juht, et lahkub. Tegemist oli päris olulise inimesega poodide uuendamise seisukohalt. Siiski, kaubeldes 11-12x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta (2003E eps $1.04, 2004E eps $1.20) tunduvad need aktsiad jällegi päris odavatena.
- Eile õhtul teatasid Roche, Genentech (DNA) ning OSI Pharma (OSIP), et nende Tarceva nimeline kopsuvähki raviv ravimikandidaat ei näidanud piisavalt häid tulemusi 3 faasi katsetes. Tegemist oli üpris oodatud uudisega, kuid täna hommikul on kõik mainitud aktsiad eelturul miinuses. Neid aktsiaid võib täna vaadelda kui head indikaatorit turu tervise kohta. Vähemalt hommikul leidus ka juba ostjaid, kes 5-7% kukkumist ostma tulid.
- Cirrus Logic (CRUS) teatas, et selle kvartali käive tuleb $50 kandis vs. varasema $45-50 mln prognoosid. CRUS on eelturul uudise peale üle 10% plussis. Sellest hoolimata avaneb aktsia ilmselt trendijoone alla. Ma usun, et oleme praegu faasis, kus häid uudiseid kasutatakse kasumivõtmiseks. Sama võib juhtuda ka CRUS-i puhul.
- Schering-Plough (SGP) teatas, et juurdlus seoses firm Puerto Rico tootmisüksusega on läbi. Tegemist on päris hea uudisega ning aktsiad on selle peale eelturul isegi korra $16 alla hüpanud. Minu vaated farmaatsiale üldiselt pole muutunud. Seda olenemata viimase nädala kukkumisest.
- Gary B. Smith
- RevShark:
After a brief bounce on Monday, the sellers returned and pushed the market back down below key technical levels on increased volume. The Wall Street terminology for such action is "distribution." When the market sells off on an increase in volume, it is a sign that bigger investors are "distributing" their positions to the broader market.
Profit-taking can be very healthy when it occurs on light volume. When that happens, it usually means that institutions are standing firm as stocks move from weak and marginal investors into the hands of stronger and more bullish investors. When profit-taking occurs on increased volume, it is a sign that institutions are locking in profits and becoming more skeptical about the overall market.
When there is a series of distribution days like we have seen lately, it demonstrates a change in character of the market. Throughout the rally since March, we had very few days of distribution. We pulled back on lighter volume and rallied on increased volume. That is textbook bullish action. During the month of September, we have seen that tendency reverse. Volume is picking up on pullbacks and decreasing on rallies.
The bottom line is that the dominant trend is now down, and we can't expect to be quickly and easily bailed out by the dip-buyers who were so quick to show up as we rallied during the summer.
End-of-the-quarter portfolio adjustment by big funds probably distorted market action over the last couple days. Now that we have concluded those games, we will be able to see more clearly now how much pressure there is to protect some of the big profits many folks have on the books. This is the first time since this rally began back in March that market participants have seen their profits erode to a great degree.
The quandary now is whether investors are confident enough about this market to let this weakness play out, or will they lock in profits by selling if the market continues to struggle?
The bullish optimists shrug off this action as simple seasonal weakness that will set us up very nicely for an end-of-the-year rally. We had a big rally since March, and after a healthy correction in September and October, we will be in perfect position for a strong finish. That sounds very nice and neat as well as logical, but can it really be that simple?
If you do believe that scenario is likely, then you have to ask yourself whether you sell now and try to buy back at lower prices, or do you hang on and stay confident that the end-of-the-year rally will play out as hoped?
My methodology is to not worry too much about what may or may not happen a month or two from now but to respect the current action. The market is under some substantial pressure, and my No. 1 priority is to protect my capital. If you keep that capital safe and stay prepared, you'll be able to profit nicely if and when the market turns back up again. If the market continues to stay weak, the losses can be quite big and will require much effort to recover. It is easier to stay ahead of the market if you don't have to make up big losses.
We have a bit of a bounce shaping up in the early going. There are positive comments about the health of semiconductors once again. Overseas markets are attempting to stabilize, and currency markets are doing little.
The poor economic reports yesterday helped embolden the bears. We have more reports due out at 10 a.m. EDT, most notably the ISM data. Expectations have declined a bit after yesterday, but the bulls badly need a reversal of the trend of poor economic reports.
sB
