-Eelmine nädal oli turgude jaoks kiire põrke nädalaks, kuid pikk nädalavahetus tähendas, et olulises tegijad olid turult eemal, seega on see nädal edasise tõusu osas kriitilise tähtsusega. Turud alustavad kerges miinuses S&P 500 futuurid on 2,8 punkti miinuses, Nasdaq on 9 punkti miinuses.
-Nafta hind on taas kerkinud turgude jaoks ohtlikult kõrgeks üle 41 dollari barreli eest. Peamiseks põhjuseks on Saudi Araabias toimunud pantvangidraama.
-Semiconductor Industries Assotsiation teatel kasvas aprillis pooljuhtide müük 37% võrrelduna aastataguse perioodiga ning 4,1% võrrelduna eelmise kuuga. Kogumüük küündis 16,94 miljardi dollarini. Tugeva numbrini aitas suurenenud nõudlus mobiiltelefonide, koduarvutite ja digitaalkaamerate järele.
-Suure tähelepanu all on Inteli (INTC) aktsia, firma avaldab neljapäeval peale turgude sulgemist oma kvartali vahearuande.
Rev Shark:
Good morning. I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend respite and is refreshed, rested and ready to rumble. We have some tricky trading in front of us.
After a solid bounce over the past week, the issue we must now ponder is whether this market has the drive and persistence to move even higher. The S&P 500 bounced almost perfectly off its 200-day simple moving average. It even managed to cut through its 50-day moving average and has the highs of April in sight. The Nasdaq pulled off a similar bounce after finding support near the lows of last November and December.
There are some major headwinds to contend with and it won't be an easy task to keep the recent upward move going. The first obstacle to consider is technical health. The move last week came on lighter-than-average volume. When the market rallies, we like to see some proof that the big institutions are behind the move. The best way to gauge that is to look at volume. If the big money is putting cash to work, they should leave some tracks in the form of higher volume. That was not the case.
The second technical problem is that we are running into overhead resistance from April. Folks who bought stocks in April are now back close to even. After a gut-wrenching drop in early May, they may be happy to exit positions and break even. That is what overhead is all about -- the inclination to sell at close to break-even after sitting through an ugly drop.
A low-volume bounce to areas of resistance sets the stage for some sort of basing action at a minimum and, more likely, at least a slight pullback. There are definitely technical issues to contend with here.
Now let's consider that weak technical foundation in conjunction with market sentiment and the news environment. Oil continues to be the major issue out there right now. Crude prices are hitting new highs as terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia raise concerns about the possibility of supply interruptions. The market has been particularly attuned to the oil patch lately and that looks likely to continue.
The market has momentarily forgotten its interest rate concerns, but we have a major jobs report due out on Friday, which is likely to help bring that issue to the forefront again. Throw in the festering situation in Iraq and we have three good reasons for market participants to move cautiously.
A vulnerable technical pattern and some significant fundamental and geopolitical worries are going to make the upside path very rough going. There has been a lot of improvement in various individual stocks recently, which has made for some good trading, but we need to be very leery of chasing stocks in this environment. A pullback at this juncture would help build some excellent longer-term entry points, if recent lows hold. The bounce last week helped improve the technical picture of many individual stocks, but they are now ripe for consolidation of recent gains before we can be aggressive buyers.
Futures are indicating a weak open as oil weighs on overseas markets. One bright spot this morning is China, which is foregoing interest rate hikes for now and is talking about opening its markets to foreign retailers. China-related stocks look to offer some trade opportunities today. On the downside, regulators in the United Kingdom are requiring cell-phone companies to cut prices, so watch pressure in that group.
Grab another cup of coffee, shake off the weekend excesses and get ready for a very challenging market.
Gary B. Smith: