-USA turud on endiselt tööjõuraporti ootuses ning suuri liikumisi oodata ei ole. Turu avanemise eel avaldatud eelmise nädala tööpuuduse statistika oli positiivne, töötu abiraha taotlejate arv oli 340 000 ning see on madalaim näitaja alates 2001. aasta jaanuarist.
-Telekomisektorit kergitas Ericssoni (ERICY) tugev kvartaliprognoos. Firma teatas, et kasumimarginaal on tõusuteel, müügi kasv on siiski varasemate prognoosidega samas suurusjärgus. Aktsia on eelturul 8.5% plussis.
-Chevron Texaco (CVX) teatas 5 miljardi dollari suurusest plaanist aktsiate tagasiostmiseks. Aktsia eelturul kerges plussis.
-Merill Lynch teatas, et alandab jaemüügifirmade sealhulgas ka Wal-Mart (WMT) reitinguid. Muretsemiseks annab põhjust oodatav intressimäärade tõstmine, mis peaks lõpu tegema tarbimispeole.
-Euroopa Keskpank jättis intressid muutmata, eurole tähendas see tugevnemist. Tulevikus ei välistatud intresside alandamist, kuid selle tõenäosus on vähenenud. Jaapani majandus on näitamas tugevnemise märke, seda peale kümnendi kestnud kiratsemist, jeeni kursile mõjub see ainult hästi.
Rev Shark:
In recent weeks, I've been detecting a steady increase in bearish sentiment. This is reflected to some degree in the sentiment surveys, but much of what I have read and the emails I receive lead me to believe that the level of worry and concern out there has been growing.
After a yearlong rally, many folks are ready to concede that either we will correct to a much greater extent or the bear market will resume. Investors have a slew of things to worry about -- rising oil and gas prices, the quagmire in Iraq, a nasty presidential election, the potential of higher interest rates and a slowing economic recovery. If you want something to worry about, there are plenty of things to choose from.
But it is the flow of actual events in the weeks to come that will determine the path this market will take. To some extent, the increase in bearishness is a positive, but it probably is not great enough to be a good contrary indicator. We do have conditions in place to climb the proverbial "wall of worry," but the mood isn't so dark that we can consider the market to be washed out.
Technically, this market can easily break either way. We are still extended after the recent rally and more profit-taking would not be a surprise, but that would do little to change the technical picture. The Nasdaq has technical support at 1900, which is the 200-day simple moving average, and technical overhead at 2000 and also at 2025, which is the 50-day simple moving average.
Economic data and earnings reports are the events that will determine our course over the immediate future. Everyone is probably tired of hearing about the jobs report, which still isn't due for another 24 hours. Market participants are keenly focused on this report and we should see some positioning today in front of the news.
The interesting thing about the jobs report is that it isn't all that clear what the market will consider to be a "good" report. If employment growth is extremely strong that will cause concern about the possibility of increased interest rates, which is a negative for stocks. On the other hand, if the numbers are weak, that calls into question the pace of the economic recovery and causes political problems for President Bush. The best thing for the market may be a Goldilocks report -- one that isn't too hot or too cold.
The market action today is going to be dominated by speculation of what that report holds. Anyone who thinks they know what will happen tomorrow is simply gambling at this point. It is a roll of the dice. Forget conventional wisdom and focus on being prepared for events as they unfold. I don't know what will happen, but I guarantee you that many will be surprised.
One thing that has kept me leaning bullish recently is the better action I'm finding in small-caps and momentum stocks. The positive breadth yesterday is probably the easiest way to see what I am seeing. My feeling is that market participants are hunting for the underfollowed stocks that are likely to post decent first-quarter earnings. They are focusing on fundamentals and finding some opportunities in the little guys. That is a positive, and I will stay bullish as long as I see that sort of activity.
Early opening indications reflect a high level of uncertainty. European markets are slightly positive on strength in technology stocks, while Asian markets were marginally lower.
Merrill Lynch is downgrading the big retailers -- DDS, DLTR, FDO, WMT, TGT and NMGA. The analyst there is concerned about the potential of higher interest rates in the second half of the year, as well as removal of Chinese apparel quotas, seasonality and tough comps.
We have the weekly unemployment claims coming at 8:30 a.m. EST as well as the long-delayed PPI report. At 10:00 a.m., the construction spending and ISM Purchasing Managers reports should shake things up a tad.
Overall, it looks like we are in wait-and-see mode in front of the jobs report tomorrow. Emotions will be running high and that should keep things uncertain. Be careful out there.
Gary B. Smith: