Ruchir Sharma (chair of Rockefeller International) kirjutab sarkastiliselt FT-s, et USA ongi nüüd puhas AI play (millesse kõik usuvad), kõik muu on kehvakene.
Large companies and investors seem unfazed and increasingly confident that artificial intelligence is such a big force, it can counter all the challenges.
AI now accounts for an astonishing 40% share of US GDP growth this year. And some analysts believe that estimate doesn’t fully capture the AI spend, so the real share could be even higher. AI companies have accounted for 80% of the gains in US stocks so far in 2025.
But without all the excitement around AI, the US economy might be stalling out, given the multiple threats. The labour force squeeze alone will reduce America’s growth potential by more than a fifth, Goldman Sachs analysis suggests. Yet increasingly the response to this risk is a shrug. AI is going to make human labour less necessary anyway.
Likewise, government deficits and debt are increasing faster in the US than in other developed markets. At around 100% of GDP, US government debt is near its WWII peak and could keep rising. Unless, of course, AI saves the day by generating an economic boom. In that happy scenario, the US debt burden stabilises. Global markets appear to be counting on the happy scenario.
The main reason AI is regarded as a magic fix for so many different threats is that it is expected to deliver a significant boost to productivity growth, especially in the US.
The one discordant note in this “buy America, no matter what” narrative is the dollar. But many analysts explain its recent decline as the result of foreign investors hedging their exposure to more normal levels. Foreigners poured a record $290bn into US stocks in Q2 and now own about 30% of the market — the highest share in post-WWII history.
In a way, then, America has become one big bet on AI. Outside of the AI plays, even European stock markets have been outperforming the US this decade, and that gap is starting to spread. So far in 2025, every major sector from utilities and industrials to healthcare and banks has fared better in the rest of the world than in the US.
AI better deliver for the US, or its economy and markets will lose the one leg they are now standing on.
