Alustan uut ja ainult Avanexile pühendatud teemat.
Avanex on viimastel nädalatel olnud üks enimkaubeldud ja enimhoitud aktsiaid LHV Directis.
Varem on Avanex-i(AVNX)LHV Directis osaliselt käsitletud Optical Networking teema all.
Algus tuleb Avanex-le raskel hetkel - eile tehtud kasumihoiatus on viinud lisaks viimastel nädalatel toimunud langustele Avanexi päevaga veel -16.5% allapoole.
Miks? Kas asjad on halvasti? Mis on Avanex-i väärtus?
Kuna Avanex on üks firmadest kuhu olen ja kavatsen(ilmselt) ka edaspidi investeerida üritan siisn jagada oma infot ja arutleda teemat kollektiivselt.
Minu vaated Avanexi osas kajastavad ennekõike firma pikaajalist perspektiivi (5 aastat).
Eile andis Avanex kasumihoiatuse ja pidas kell 4.30EDT pressikonverentsi.
Uued kasuminumbrid(EPS) Vana kasumiennustus(EPS)
3Q(fisc.) $ 0.02-0.03 $ 0.06
2001(fisc) $ 0.15-0.16 $ 0.25
2001 fiskaalaasta käibeks prognoosib firma nüüd 169 milj. USD.
Mis juhtus?
Langenud on vana toote(Avanexi esimese) PowerFilteri müük. Põhiosas suurima kliendi, telekommunikatsioonigigandi Worldcom arvelt.
Worldcomi osa Avanexi müügis on langenud 50% 30%-ni. Viimane on iseenesest hea uudis.
Positiivne on uue põlvkonna toodete(PowerMux ja PowerExchanger, pluss PowerShaper) osakaalu kasv.
Kaks esimest annavad kolmandas kvartalis üle 70% müügist. Avanexi patenteeritud uue põlvkonna tooted ongi firma strateegiline tugevus ja tulevik.
Jätkub kliendiriski hajumine. 3Q sai Avanex kolmanda üle 10% osakaaluga kliendi - Alcateli(kaks suuremat Worldcom ja Fujitsu).
Aasta tagasi oli Wordcomi osakaal üle 90%-i.
Rahvusvahelise müügi osakaal tõusis 50%-ni(Euroopa ja Jaapan), mis positiivne.
Analüütikud on "juba" reageerimas UBS Warburg downgradis Avanexi Buy-st Hold-ks ja hinnasihi 100-lt 18 dollarini(see e i o l e nali!)
Avanex keskendub lähitulevikus metro(linnavõrkude) seadmetele, märtsi teisel poolel toimuval Optika ja Fiibrikongressil Anaheimis lubavad demonstreerida radikaalselt uut PowerExpressi nimelist linnavõrkude toodet.
Hea pildi Avanexi ärist, toodetest, finantsidest ja perspektiividest
ühe fani koostatud värske Avanexi Due Diligence
Mõned asjad, mida Avanexi pikema vinnaga investeerides jälgima peaks:
1. Kogu käive tuleb paarist-kolmest vidinast, mida teised veel õnneks teha ei mõista.
2. Toode on patenteeritud, kuid alati on võimalik, et mingi uus "disruptive" tehnoloogia tuleb ja muudab olemasoleva väärtusetuks.
"Avanex’s technology is patented. There is the possibility, however, that these patents could be worked around and competing technologies could be developed that enable high channel counts (the PowerMux) and provide all-optical solutions to dispersion (the PowerShaper). Chorum’s technologies come to mind as a potential competitive thread."
3. Madal "switching cost" e. kliendid võivad kergelt võtta kasutusele võistleva tehnoloogia, kui selline peaks saadavaks osutuma.
"A competing technology that performed the same functions could be integrated into a network easily. Unlike Cisco’s devices there is no software component to Avanex’s devices. Software elements help build in high switching costs."
Moraal on selles, et võistlejaid ja nende tegemisi peaks jälgima väga tähelepanelikult. Kui mõni selline silmapiirile ilmub, siis peaks "Sell" nuppu kogu aeg endaga kaasas kandma.
Chorum on siiani private, kuigi failinud ka IPO-ks.
Chorum arendab Avanexist erineval tehnooogial põhinevat mutliplekserit. Avanexil on kättesaadava info põhjal siiski oliline edumaa, samuti peaks tootmine olema odavam standardkomponentide kasutamise tõttu.
Ca nädal tagasi lõi Avanexi fannide seas laineid Chorumi deal Norteliga komponentide tarneks Norteli DWDM süsteemi koostisosana. kasutuselevõtuks.
Teine keda tasub jälgida on Inglise Bookham Technologies.
Avanex-i investeerinuna püüan teha mõlemat.
Salomon Avanex'ist
Although we like Avanex's product positioning, we think the near term risks
outweigh the rewards. The early March pre-announcement, where slowing
purchases from WorldCom generated a March quarter miss, punctuate our concern.
We recognize the pre-announcement materially lowered the valuation risk profile
of Avanex. We also recognize the shares are essentially at a 52 week low.
However, we think continued customer inventory corrections, and the changing
spending dynamics of service providers are likely to overhang these shares for
at least a quarter. Additionally, with last week's pre-announcement, we think
the company needs to show a couple of quarters of solid performance before
investors again warm-up to the name. As a result, we prefer to remain on the
sidelines until the end market shows signs of strengthening and customer
concentration diminishes.
RECENT RESULTS
In Avanex's fiscal second quarter of 2001 (its most recently reported results),
the company posted revenues of $47.9 million, up 38% sequentially.
Gross and operating margins were equal to 47.2% and 7%, respectively.
Avanex posted EPS of $0.06 on a diluted basis, substantially above expectations of $0.04.
VALUATION
Avanex trades at 5.5x 2001 revenues. The company's largest peer, JDS Uniphase
currently trades at 5.8x 2001 revenues, including the SDL merger impact. We
think Avanex can achieve roughly 72% year over year revenue growth in calendar
2001, or roughly 10 points higher than our forecast growth rate for JDS
Uniphase for the same period. With sharply higher revenue run-rate risk,
Avanex looks essentially fairly valued. However, we recognize as some of the
overhangs in the optical components market start to clear, the valuations in
the space should improve. As a result, we think Avanex's price to calendar
2001 sales multiple should expand to 9.7x, or $22 per share.
RISKS
Near-Term Risk Keeps Us Cautious. Inventory issues and continued end-market
demand uncertainty in the optical components market, and the high customer
concentration risk keep us from recommending this name.
* Lowered Capex Guidance From 360Networks Lowers Visibility On Avanex. Last
week, 360Networks lowered its capital spending guidance by $250 million for
terrestrial networks and $175 million for submarine networks in 2001.
Fujitsu is a large optical systems supplier to 360. Fujitsu is also a plus-
10% customer of Avanex. Avanex is supplying Fujitsu the PowerMux for the
company's 176 channel system, but we believe sales at this channel count are
small. The bulk of Avanex's sales to Fujitsu are more likely lower channel
count products more easily exposed to competition and lowered capex spending
risk. Although we don't have the full detail, a contraction in spending at
360 lowers the visibility at Avanex
* High Revenue Exposure To WorldCom Caused A March Quarter Earnings Miss.
Management blamed the shortfall on slower sales of PowerFilter into MCI
implying WorldCom, a plus-50% customer, had sharply contracted optical
spending relative to expectations in the first two months of the quarter.
Sales of PowerFilter declined to 30% of the sales mix from 55% in the
December quarter. In our view, competitive pressures for long-haul carriers
having abated as the CLEC's have run into financing troubles. As a result,
the larger carriers have become less aggressive with spending on next-
generation optical products. We don't expect this situation to persist, but
for now we think this trend may continue at least into the latter part of the
second quarter, clouding the near-term outlook for Avanex.
* Avanex's Other Customers Are Correcting Inventory While End Near-Term End
Market Demand Has Softened. The balance of Avanex's plus-10% customers
include Nortel and Alcatel. These optical systems manufacturers are
correcting inventories as well as are experiencing slower end-market demand.
A quick analysis of available data suggests it may take another quarter or
two to clear out excess photonic inventories at systems suppliers.
Additionally, Avanex's competitors have show little signs of materially
slowing plus-200% annual capacity additions. In our opinion, although
Avanex's PowerMux and PowerExchanger appear to be selling well, and cutting
edge sophistication should cushion Avanex, we think the near-term demand
outlook for the name is murky.
p.
p.
Minu loogika on väga lihtne. Arvestades praegust turuseisu ei osta ma AVNX kuskilt 15 pealt jäädes ootama aega, mil ta tõuseb 30-ni. Kui ma olen pikaajaline investor, siis mul näpud eriti ei kibele ja jõuan ära oodata aja kui AVNX on tasemel 8/10 ja ostan siis. Loomulikult arvestan turu üldist sentimenti ja pean võibolla tõdema, et õige aeg on võibolla isegi rohkem allpool.
Vahe on ikka päris suur, kas ma ostan aktsiat 15 pealt või 8/10 taseme pealt. Pikaajaline investor tähendab minu jaoks seda, et olen valmis ootama ära aja kui AVNX on 30, samas olen aga võimeline ka põhja ära ootama.
AVNX suhtes olen ise väga positiivselt meelestatud. Hetkel hoian pilku peal veel Avici'l (AVCI, Nasdaq), mis tegeleb küll erinevate toodetega, kuid on siiski suure tuleviku potensiaaliga.
LHV investoritele sooritan eelkõige aga kainet meelt. See, et AVNX oli kunagi 170 ei tähenda veel seda, et ta 10 peal odav oleks!
Analüütikute konsensus Avanexi EPS kasvule on 47.5% aastas.
2001/6 lõppeva aasta EPS ennustus 0.15 ehk PE 97
2002/6 lõppeva aasta EPS ennustus 0.31 ehk PE 48
Kui seda suudetakse saavutada/ületada võiks ka hinnal kasvupotensiaali küllaga olla. 30 pole mingi piir.
Kui panga ja kindlustusseltsi või mobiilimüüja puhul tead kus klienti röövitakse ja kust raha firmasse voolab siis siin asi natuke harjumist vajab.Muidu hea firma paisab olevat.
AVANEX CORPORATION
Proforma Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands, except per share data)
(Unaudited)
Three Months Ended Six Months Ended
December 31, December 31,
------------------------- -------------------------
2000 1999 2000 1999
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net revenue.................... $47,948 $6,499 $82,715 $10,916
Cost of revenue................ 25,305 4,763 44,560 8,194
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Gross profit ................. 22,643 1,736 38,155 2,722
Operating expenses:
Research and development..... 10,703 2,038 18,868 2,988
Sales and marketing.......... 4,758 962 8,723 1,676
General and administrative... 3,809 1,515 6,715 2,129
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Total operating expenses... 19,270 4,515 34,306 6,793
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Income (loss) from operations.. 3,373 (2,779) 3,849 (4,071)
Other income (expense)......... 3,509 45 6,924 (26)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net income (loss) before tax... 6,882 (2,734) 10,773 (4,097)
Income tax expense............. 2,754 -- 4,310 --
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net income (loss).............. $4,128 ($2,734) $6,463 ($4,097)
============ ============ ============ ============
Diluted net income (loss)
per common share............. $0.06 ($0.40) $0.09 ($0.66)
============ ============ ============ ============
Weighted-average shares
used in computing
diluted net income (loss)
per common share............. 68,193 6,823 68,249 6,215
============ ============ ============ ============
Note: The Proforma Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations exclude the
impact of the in-process research and development write-off, amortization of
deferred stock compensation, amortization of intangibles and stock accretion.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands, except per share data)
(Unaudited)
Three Months Ended Six Months Ended
December 31, December 31,
------------------------- -------------------------
2000 1999 2000 1999
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net revenue.................... $47,948 $6,499 $82,715 $10,916
Cost of revenue................ 25,305 4,763 44,560 8,194
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Gross profit................... 22,643 1,736 38,155 2,722
Operating expenses:
Research and development..... 10,703 2,038 18,868 2,988
Sales and marketing.......... 4,758 962 8,723 1,676
General and administrative... 3,809 1,515 6,715 2,129
Stock compensation........... 12,791 9,590 33,932 15,697
In-process research and
development............... -- -- 4,700 --
Amortization of intangibles.. 2,619 -- 4,417 --
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Total operating expenses... 34,680 14,105 77,355 22,490
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Loss from operations........... (12,037) (12,369) (39,200) (19,768)
Other income (expense)......... 3,509 45 6,924 (26)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net loss before tax............ (8,528) (12,324) (32,276) (19,794)
Income tax expense............. 2,754 -- 4,310 --
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net loss....................... (11,282) (12,324) (36,586) (19,794)
Stock accretion................ -- (5,090) -- (20,051)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net loss attributable to
common stockholders.......... ($11,282) ($17,414) ($36,586) ($39,845)
============ ============ ============ ============
Basic and diluted net loss
per common share............. ($0.20) ($2.55) ($0.65) ($6.41)
============ ============ ============ ============
Weighted-average shares
used in computing basic
and diluted net loss per
common share................. 56,914 6,823 55,991 6,215
============ ============ ============ ============
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
(In thousands)
(Unaudited)
December 31, June 30,
2000 2000
------------ ------------
ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.... $195,252 $184,321
Accounts receivable, net............................. 24,329 9,942
Inventories.......................................... 20,354 8,266
Other current assets................................. 2,712 1,922
------------ ------------
Total current assets............................... 242,647 204,451
Property and equipment, net............................ 35,630 14,990
Intangible assets.................................... 47,962 --
Long-term investments.................................. 32,421 56,943
Other assets........................................... 682 1,757
------------ ------------
Total assets................................... $359,342 $278,141
============ ============
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current liabilities:
Short-term borrowings................................ $ -- $1,525
Accounts payable..................................... 17,341 7,668
Accrued compensation and related expenses............ 5,477 2,999
Other accrued expenses............................... 18,555 5,939
Current portion of capital lease obligations......... 2,733 786
------------ ------------
Total current liabilities.......................... 44,106 18,917
Capital lease obligations.............................. 6,207 2,067
Stockholders' equity .................................. 309,029 257,157
------------ ------------
Total liabilities and stockholders'
equity....................................... $359,342 $278,141
============ ============
NOTE: The Company maintains its financial records on the basis of a fiscal year
ending June 30, with fiscal quarters ending on the Friday closest to the end of
the period (thirteen-week periods). For ease of reference, all references to
period end dates have been presented as though the period ended on the last
day of the calender month. The second quarter of fiscal 2001 and 2000 ended
on December 29, 2000 and December 31, 1999, respectively.
Sisuliselt tegid äsja teise kasumihoiatuse.
Märtsis lõppeva 2001 aasta 3kv. realiseerunud müük oli ainult 30 mio USD, kahjum(kasumi asemel)
3 senti.
Teatati kulude kärpimisest, Fremontis vähendatakse 350 inimest.
Toodete perspektiivi suhtes endiselt optimistlikud, tundub, et ostjad lihtsalt venitavad.
Pressikonverents 24.04. 4.30EDT.
Lühiajaliselt vist ei tõota midagi head, kuigi eelturul tõus ????
Firma suurim klient Worldcom(30-50%) vähendas drastiliselt PowerFilter'i(senini 55% käibest) tellimusi
suured tänud avanex on 14.jõudsin 10ga osta.peaks sulle prosa maksma!ei jõua ausaltöeldes kõike jälgida ja hea kui siit mõne vihje saab!(hea vihje).
Kas tuleviku väljavaated ja visibility on tõesti siis nii palju viimase 2 nädalaga paremaks läinud? Ei kahtle absoluutselt AVNX ja SCMR võimalustes kuni 2 aasta perspektiivis. Järelikult turule on taas hakanud tõsisemalt sisenema pikaajalised investorid.
- Q4 EPS is expected between a loss of $0.02 to $0.03 per share
- The full year 2001 loss is expected between $0.08 to $0.10 per share
Juunis lubati PowerExpressist käivet ja aasta lõpus PowerShaperist. PowerShaperi integreerimine OEM tootjatega pidi käima. Hinnaerosiooni ei kardeta, kuna tooted pidid olema nagu rätsepatöö, mis igale kliendile eraldi istuma pannakse. Kõib kõva kulude kokkutõmbamine ja subcontractingu suurendamine.
Mõned laused tekitasid natuke elevust. Öeldi midagi sellist, et marketingi poolele on kaks inimest juurde võetud, seega saab olema lootust kliendipõhja laiendamiseks. Teine lause oli umbes selline, et reseachi teeb meil nüüd juba 10 inimest (neist n PhD). See tundus väga kummaline. Kuid võib-olla olin juba pooleldi unematide maal :)