korrektsioonipäev, AMAT head tulemused ja HPQ kehvapoolsed on seljataga, turg otsib uut ostuhuvi mõnevõrra madalamalt
selline rumor tradingruumist:
*** is hearing from other trading desks ORCL will make their #'s
*** is hearing from other trading desks ORCL will make their #'s
mis see #'s on?
numbers
Paistab, et kasumivõtmine sai läbi
Biotehnoloogia on tugev, ka pooljuhid on miinusest väljas, kuigi Dan Niles avaldas negatiivseid kommentaare Inteli kohta.
Homse suhtes on kõige tähtsam täna kell 12 öösel algav IBM CEO kohtumine analüütikutega
Bernsteini näitel on võimalik aimu saada, mis peamiselt analüütikuid huvitab:
Questions on IBM overall
1. Worldwide IT spending and IBM's growth? At what level do you believe
worldwide IT spending will grow this year? Is there a level of worldwide IT
spending growth under which you feel uncomfortable that IBM can deliver against
current expectations? Why not? Do you feel that 2003 global IT spending will
be at trend (i.e., 10% growth), below trend or above trend and why?
2. IBM Longer-term growth rates and timing. IBM has stated that it feels it can
grow EPS in the low double digits going forward and revenues in the high
single digits. Can you reaffirm these longer-term goals for investors - and if
so, when is a reasonable time frame for expecting IBM to return to posting
these kinds of results (as soon as spending turns, before it, or after it)?
3. Headcount levels and productivity. We note that IBM's productivity levels
(revenues/employee) declined materially last year (see Exhibit 6), reflecting
increased headcount on falling revenues. To realign IBM productivity with 2000
levels, the company would have to have headcount fall by over 20,000 employees.
What is the right level employee level for IBM right now - how much of any
required headcount reductions could be accomplished through attrition? How
should we think about IBM's employee productivity - how should it change each
year?
4. Cash Flow. Is there a price point where buying back shares becomes an
ineffective/less attractive use of cash (i.e., you gain more by putting it in
the bank, reinvesting more aggressively in the company or paying it out in
dividends)? You have recently boosted your dividend. Do you expect there to be
a change in the IBM's uses of cash going forward?.
5. The next "plastics"? In the movie The Graduate, Dustin Hoffman was
counseled with one single word of business advice - "plastics." Which area of
IBM do you feel could provide a wave growth over the next 5 - 10 years that
investors do not fully appreciate today?
Questions on Specific Business Units
6. Update on HDD business. When do you expect that the JV with Hitachi will be
up and running and that your financials will reflect the 30% ownership in the
new JV?
The press has reported that you will receive a $1 billion+ payment on assets
(we estimate HDD assets are about $2 billion) - will there be a material
writedown associated with the transaction?
Are you confident that the JV can develop a competitive enterprise disk drive?
Why?
7. MicroElectronics. In October 2000, you announced a $5 billion capital
commitment (implying incremental annual depreciation expense alone of up $600
mil - $1.25 billion) towards expanding your microelectronics capacity by up to
three-fold. Your microelectronics business is currently 40% below its peak
revenues of a year ago, and this capacity should start to ramp over the next 6
months. How do we get comfortable that microelectronics losses (currently
around $0.05 - $0.06 per qtr) will not get materially worse? What strategic
options do you have for getting rid of your low-utilization aluminum assets?
8. Services. At what average rate do you believe the services group (ex
maintenance) can grow at over the next three years? Can you outline the 2 or 3
major issues that could possibly hinder this growth rate?
Questions on Sam's Objectives for IBM
9. How would you like your IBM to be different from Lou Gerstner's? What are
the three things you plan to do differently/emphasize more now that you are
CEO?
10. Management Incentives. Will the top 100 executives still be driven by the
same set of financial incentives as they have in the past? What are specific
components of those incentives?
Bernsteini näitel on võimalik aimu saada, mis peamiselt analüütikuid huvitab:
Questions on IBM overall
1. Worldwide IT spending and IBM's growth? At what level do you believe
worldwide IT spending will grow this year? Is there a level of worldwide IT
spending growth under which you feel uncomfortable that IBM can deliver against
current expectations? Why not? Do you feel that 2003 global IT spending will
be at trend (i.e., 10% growth), below trend or above trend and why?
2. IBM Longer-term growth rates and timing. IBM has stated that it feels it can
grow EPS in the low double digits going forward and revenues in the high
single digits. Can you reaffirm these longer-term goals for investors - and if
so, when is a reasonable time frame for expecting IBM to return to posting
these kinds of results (as soon as spending turns, before it, or after it)?
3. Headcount levels and productivity. We note that IBM's productivity levels
(revenues/employee) declined materially last year (see Exhibit 6), reflecting
increased headcount on falling revenues. To realign IBM productivity with 2000
levels, the company would have to have headcount fall by over 20,000 employees.
What is the right level employee level for IBM right now - how much of any
required headcount reductions could be accomplished through attrition? How
should we think about IBM's employee productivity - how should it change each
year?
4. Cash Flow. Is there a price point where buying back shares becomes an
ineffective/less attractive use of cash (i.e., you gain more by putting it in
the bank, reinvesting more aggressively in the company or paying it out in
dividends)? You have recently boosted your dividend. Do you expect there to be
a change in the IBM's uses of cash going forward?.
5. The next "plastics"? In the movie The Graduate, Dustin Hoffman was
counseled with one single word of business advice - "plastics." Which area of
IBM do you feel could provide a wave growth over the next 5 - 10 years that
investors do not fully appreciate today?
Questions on Specific Business Units
6. Update on HDD business. When do you expect that the JV with Hitachi will be
up and running and that your financials will reflect the 30% ownership in the
new JV?
The press has reported that you will receive a $1 billion+ payment on assets
(we estimate HDD assets are about $2 billion) - will there be a material
writedown associated with the transaction?
Are you confident that the JV can develop a competitive enterprise disk drive?
Why?
7. MicroElectronics. In October 2000, you announced a $5 billion capital
commitment (implying incremental annual depreciation expense alone of up $600
mil - $1.25 billion) towards expanding your microelectronics capacity by up to
three-fold. Your microelectronics business is currently 40% below its peak
revenues of a year ago, and this capacity should start to ramp over the next 6
months. How do we get comfortable that microelectronics losses (currently
around $0.05 - $0.06 per qtr) will not get materially worse? What strategic
options do you have for getting rid of your low-utilization aluminum assets?
8. Services. At what average rate do you believe the services group (ex
maintenance) can grow at over the next three years? Can you outline the 2 or 3
major issues that could possibly hinder this growth rate?
Questions on Sam's Objectives for IBM
9. How would you like your IBM to be different from Lou Gerstner's? What are
the three things you plan to do differently/emphasize more now that you are
CEO?
10. Management Incentives. Will the top 100 executives still be driven by the
same set of financial incentives as they have in the past? What are specific
components of those incentives?
12:56 ET WorldCom credit concerns (WCOM) 1.19 -0.05: We are hearing rumors that WCOM has not been able to access their bank loans and are drawing down their bank credit line instead; however, Lehman makes the case that mgmt should be able to stabilize their credit deterioration and could ease near-term liquidity concerns (based on the outcomes of their bank negotiations and strategic review), and could create further comfort level in its positive free cash flow forecasts based on over $1 bln in expenditure reductions; if correct, firm believes that the mkt should gain confidence that WCOM will not have to file for Chapter 11 in the next 12-24 months.
Kui müük oli päeva alguses üsna keskpärase käibega, siis turu pööramisel ülespoole on ka käive tõusnud - Nasdaq koguni 2.2 mlrd. graafikus. Pluss pullidele.
Kui turg juba 3 päeva nii ilusas tõusus, siis ilmselt võib varsti turuosaliste silmadesse tekkida hirm tõusust maha jäämise ees, see tooks veelgi raha turule. Pluss pullidele.
Nasdaq on jõudnud üsna oluliste toetustasemete lähedale. Kui need murrab, siis pluss pullidele, kui mitte siis karudele.
Kui turg juba 3 päeva nii ilusas tõusus, siis ilmselt võib varsti turuosaliste silmadesse tekkida hirm tõusust maha jäämise ees, see tooks veelgi raha turule. Pluss pullidele.
Nasdaq on jõudnud üsna oluliste toetustasemete lähedale. Kui need murrab, siis pluss pullidele, kui mitte siis karudele.
mingi järsk kukkumine toimub???
q spread on kohati 0,5%
Avaldati kuulsate investorite Buffetti(Berkshire) ja Gates(Cascade) investeerimisportfellite seisud. (Ikv lõpp)
Buffett on võrreldes eelmise aasta lõpuga 3 firma aktsiaid müünud, Gates on soetanud erinevate ravimifirmade aktsiaid
Buffett on võrreldes eelmise aasta lõpuga 3 firma aktsiaid müünud, Gates on soetanud erinevate ravimifirmade aktsiaid