No nothing about this story -- only that there is some speculation about cancer risk associated with a JNJ drug (see 15:17). Pt is that no clean link to BMTI yet, so picked up some as expecting institutional holders to step into stock into the close. Take profits as you see fit. Stop on original position goes to entry
sell BMTI 8.99
Selleks peavad küll korralikud pallid olema, et BMTI 2 punnine kukkumine ära kannatada :)
siit tulenebki vahe päris ja mängurahaga tegelemise vahel
eks ta ole jah ..virtuaaliga oligi point proovida tiba teistsuguseid ideid. samas kui sul on alla 5% portus siis on parem kannatada. reaalsuses oleks antud treidi puhul ilmselt võtnud alguses vähem ja ostnud kukkumise pealt juurde ...siuke paras gamling shit ..on ülemüüdud või ei teata lisanüansse.
eile oli mõte addida 2-3% ulatuses portust BMTI-d enne sulgemist...aga mõtsin, et ei hakka
long CALM 10K @33.75
"they pay 1/3 of their earnings in the form of dividend to holders of record date 60 days after the qtr end which means end of April. Shorts will have to cover or be responsible for dividend. i think there will be a lot of covering over the next 30 days. stock should trade up from here."
"they pay 1/3 of their earnings in the form of dividend to holders of record date 60 days after the qtr end which means end of April. Shorts will have to cover or be responsible for dividend. i think there will be a lot of covering over the next 30 days. stock should trade up from here."
add 5K CALM 32.91
see CALM on päris huvitav juhtum
ma pole sellist short interest'i varem kunagi näinud
polegi päris aru saanud, what's the catch? betivad, et munade hinnad langevad peale munadepühi ?
viimased tulemused julgustavad küll pos'i võtma
ma pole sellist short interest'i varem kunagi näinud
polegi päris aru saanud, what's the catch? betivad, et munade hinnad langevad peale munadepühi ?
viimased tulemused julgustavad küll pos'i võtma
tunne ütleks, et ta võiks runnida peale openit ülespoole 34.50+ ..aga kuram seda teab.
kui shortijad on eksinud ja neil läheb kuumaks, ei ole selle nädala jooksul 40+ ka mingi ime
väga kole liikumine oli eile CALMi poolt. kui QQQQ ja teised a`la 4% plussi siis CALM otsejoones alla. Yahoo näitab short interestiks üle 70% ja seda aktsiat on väga raske shortida. eile kuulsin, et CALMi shorti pidi saama, aga aasta baasil maksab selle intress 17,5%. Seda aktsiat ei kata ükski maja. Aasta algusega võrreldes on CALM veel 20% üleval. a) kas keegi teab midagi mida turg ei tea ja müüb/shordib b) mõnel fondil sunnitud müük c) tegu ISRG või mõne sarnase aktsiaga, millelt agressiivsed hedge fondid ootasid suuremat kasvu ja nüüd tambivad -- s.t. palju aktsionäre on vahetumas ja aktsia võtab kursi üles. Kuskile peaks stopi panema ..29/30 kanti mõtlen ise.
Eilses CALMi 10-Q filingus:
"We are exposed to risk related to our investments in auction rate securities. Liquidity for these securities is typically provided by an auction process that resets the applicable interest rate at pre-determined intervals, usually on average every 7-35 days. Because of the short interest rate reset period, we have historically recorded them as current available-for-sale securities. The liquidity of these securities has been negatively impacted by the uncertainty in the credit markets and the exposure of these securities to the financial condition of bond insurance companies. As of March 1, 2008, we held auction rate securities with a par value of $47.2 million. These securities had been subject to auction processes for which there had been insufficient bidders on the scheduled rollover dates. We will not be able to liquidate any of our auction rate securities until a future auction is successful, a buyer is found outside of the auction process or the notes are redeemed. We have re-classified these auction rate securities as noncurrent available-for-sale securities as of March 1, 2008.
Other than the risk indicated above there have been no other material changes in the market risk reported in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 2, 2007."
"We are exposed to risk related to our investments in auction rate securities. Liquidity for these securities is typically provided by an auction process that resets the applicable interest rate at pre-determined intervals, usually on average every 7-35 days. Because of the short interest rate reset period, we have historically recorded them as current available-for-sale securities. The liquidity of these securities has been negatively impacted by the uncertainty in the credit markets and the exposure of these securities to the financial condition of bond insurance companies. As of March 1, 2008, we held auction rate securities with a par value of $47.2 million. These securities had been subject to auction processes for which there had been insufficient bidders on the scheduled rollover dates. We will not be able to liquidate any of our auction rate securities until a future auction is successful, a buyer is found outside of the auction process or the notes are redeemed. We have re-classified these auction rate securities as noncurrent available-for-sale securities as of March 1, 2008.
Other than the risk indicated above there have been no other material changes in the market risk reported in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 2, 2007."
CALM'i puhul oli näha nö süstemaatilist müügisurvet, keegi suurem kala väljumas ning ei jäta enne, kuni oma eesmärgid täidetud
30 tundub selline tehniline tase, kust allpoole enam sõita ei tahaks
peamine short bet tundub olevat muna, kui commodity, boomi tsüklilisuse lõppemine (samas olen lugenud, et see hind nii väga kiirelt ei muutu)
yahoo foorumist leidsin paar asjalikku kommentaari, mõlema "osapoole" käest:
Facts:
- The egg laying hen population is down 2% year over year. Less hens implies less eggs.
- U.S. population is up 1-2% year over year and the per capita egg consumption is increasing from 255 egg per person as more people realize health benefits from eating eggs and also as a cheaper source of protein than poultry, pork, beef or fish.
- Corn and soybean meal feedstock prices are high. Egg farmers are unlikely to increase capacity to feed more hens for 5 months until they are old enough lay an egg. Additionally, the new cage space rules will reduce the number of hens.
- Seasonally, it can be expected that egg prices moderate after Easter, but the right way to evaluate things are on a year over year basis and you will find the comparisons are hugely higher. Any shorts screaming that egg prices are falling should be silenced by, yes... but year- over-year the egg prices are up 30%+ and where do you think egg prices will continue to go if feedstock prices remain high, egg laying hen population continues to fall, number of people continue to grow, and egg demand per capita continues to grow?
- Think it through... here is a company that more than tripled earnings last qtr, generated $120 million in cash flow from operations. Valuation looks like less than 6 times earnings, about 3x EBITDA... could be long term debt free if mgmt wanted to, can buy back stock if mgmt wanted to... or could be an accretive to earnings and margins acquisition with additional synergies to a large poultry company if Chairman, CEO and founder, Fred Adams, age 76, wanted to sell.
VASTUS:
<<
rearview analysis, what will the egg laying population be after 10 million birds are added this year?
< <- U.S. population is up 1-2% year over year and the per capita egg consumption is increasing from 255 egg per person as more people realize health benefits from eating eggs and also as a cheaper source of protein than poultry, pork, beef or fish.>>
Well done, true
<< <- Corn and soybean meal feedstock prices are high. Egg farmers are unlikely to increase capacity to feed more hens for 5 months until they are old enough lay an egg. Additionally, the new cage space rules will reduce the number of hens. >>>
Expansion is real...cage size is true but rearview as it is almost over
< <- Seasonally, it can be expected that egg prices moderate after Easter, but the right way to evaluate things are on a year over year basis and you will find the comparisons are hugely higher. Any shorts screaming that egg prices are falling should be silenced by, yes... but year- over-year the egg prices are up 30%+ and where do you think egg prices will continue to go if feedstock prices remain high, egg laying hen population continues to fall, number of people continue to grow, and egg demand per capita continues to grow?>>
Rearview again, with additional supply the bloom is off and egg prices will drop and are dropping. Period. ask any wholesale egg person
<< <- Think it through... here is a company that more than tripled earnings last qtr, generated $120 million in cash flow from operations. Valuation looks like less than 6 times earnings, about 3x EBITDA... could be long term debt free if mgmt wanted to, can buy back stock if mgmt wanted to... or could be an accretive to earnings and margins acquisition with additional synergies to a large poultry company if Chairman, CEO and founder, Fred Adams, age 76, wanted to sell. >>>
No poultry person would buy a commodity company at its high just before the commodity is ready for a cyclical bust.
30 tundub selline tehniline tase, kust allpoole enam sõita ei tahaks
peamine short bet tundub olevat muna, kui commodity, boomi tsüklilisuse lõppemine (samas olen lugenud, et see hind nii väga kiirelt ei muutu)
yahoo foorumist leidsin paar asjalikku kommentaari, mõlema "osapoole" käest:
Facts:
- The egg laying hen population is down 2% year over year. Less hens implies less eggs.
- U.S. population is up 1-2% year over year and the per capita egg consumption is increasing from 255 egg per person as more people realize health benefits from eating eggs and also as a cheaper source of protein than poultry, pork, beef or fish.
- Corn and soybean meal feedstock prices are high. Egg farmers are unlikely to increase capacity to feed more hens for 5 months until they are old enough lay an egg. Additionally, the new cage space rules will reduce the number of hens.
- Seasonally, it can be expected that egg prices moderate after Easter, but the right way to evaluate things are on a year over year basis and you will find the comparisons are hugely higher. Any shorts screaming that egg prices are falling should be silenced by, yes... but year- over-year the egg prices are up 30%+ and where do you think egg prices will continue to go if feedstock prices remain high, egg laying hen population continues to fall, number of people continue to grow, and egg demand per capita continues to grow?
- Think it through... here is a company that more than tripled earnings last qtr, generated $120 million in cash flow from operations. Valuation looks like less than 6 times earnings, about 3x EBITDA... could be long term debt free if mgmt wanted to, can buy back stock if mgmt wanted to... or could be an accretive to earnings and margins acquisition with additional synergies to a large poultry company if Chairman, CEO and founder, Fred Adams, age 76, wanted to sell.
VASTUS:
<<
rearview analysis, what will the egg laying population be after 10 million birds are added this year?
< <- U.S. population is up 1-2% year over year and the per capita egg consumption is increasing from 255 egg per person as more people realize health benefits from eating eggs and also as a cheaper source of protein than poultry, pork, beef or fish.>>
Well done, true
<< <- Corn and soybean meal feedstock prices are high. Egg farmers are unlikely to increase capacity to feed more hens for 5 months until they are old enough lay an egg. Additionally, the new cage space rules will reduce the number of hens. >>>
Expansion is real...cage size is true but rearview as it is almost over
< <- Seasonally, it can be expected that egg prices moderate after Easter, but the right way to evaluate things are on a year over year basis and you will find the comparisons are hugely higher. Any shorts screaming that egg prices are falling should be silenced by, yes... but year- over-year the egg prices are up 30%+ and where do you think egg prices will continue to go if feedstock prices remain high, egg laying hen population continues to fall, number of people continue to grow, and egg demand per capita continues to grow?>>
Rearview again, with additional supply the bloom is off and egg prices will drop and are dropping. Period. ask any wholesale egg person
<< <- Think it through... here is a company that more than tripled earnings last qtr, generated $120 million in cash flow from operations. Valuation looks like less than 6 times earnings, about 3x EBITDA... could be long term debt free if mgmt wanted to, can buy back stock if mgmt wanted to... or could be an accretive to earnings and margins acquisition with additional synergies to a large poultry company if Chairman, CEO and founder, Fred Adams, age 76, wanted to sell. >>>
No poultry person would buy a commodity company at its high just before the commodity is ready for a cyclical bust.
10K long CHTT 64.71
"
We underscore our Strong Buy on CHTT stock ahead of new Nielsen data for
March due tomorrow, as well as the announcement of F1Q results next Tuesday.
The stock has fallen off on concerns that new data will look discouraging, in
our view opening a good buy point for this company weighted to defensive, high
margined OTC products, still benefiting from synergies as it integrates its
year-ago acquisition. "
We underscore our Strong Buy on CHTT stock ahead of new Nielsen data for
March due tomorrow, as well as the announcement of F1Q results next Tuesday.
The stock has fallen off on concerns that new data will look discouraging, in
our view opening a good buy point for this company weighted to defensive, high
margined OTC products, still benefiting from synergies as it integrates its
year-ago acquisition. "
oled pikk speedy?
natuke jah
see muna hinna jutt on sarnene nagu iga teise commodityga, langeb ei lange?, millal on tipp ? kõvad ennustajad on igal pool
paradoks selle kõrge shortiga on see, et shortijad ise hoolitsevad selle eest, et hind liiga odavaks ei lähe
paistab naljakalt sarnane pilt, nagu augusti alguses
mart ütleks selle kohta fraktaal :)
see muna hinna jutt on sarnene nagu iga teise commodityga, langeb ei lange?, millal on tipp ? kõvad ennustajad on igal pool
paradoks selle kõrge shortiga on see, et shortijad ise hoolitsevad selle eest, et hind liiga odavaks ei lähe
paistab naljakalt sarnane pilt, nagu augusti alguses
mart ütleks selle kohta fraktaal :)
long 5K CVP 4.49