"AlariÜ"
Said oma ASTS, DB init pt 35
See on peaaegu nagu Jonase SPCE init kunagi oli. Aktsiad osteti niimoodi käest ära nagu homset ei olekski.
See on peaaegu nagu Jonase SPCE init kunagi oli. Aktsiad osteti niimoodi käest ära nagu homset ei olekski.
Virgin Galactic to launch Richard Branson on July 11, aiming to beat Jeff Bezos to space
"ymeramees"
Virgin Galactic to launch Richard Branson on July 11, aiming to beat Jeff Bezos to space
Nii, nüüd võeti $50 stopiga esimese õhina ostjad välja. Aga nii mahapekstud peale FAA uudist, peaks nõrgad käed eelnevalt juba out olema. I'm in. Võin eksida
Njah. Ei õnnestunud. Langev nuga siiani. Tuleb lossid vastu võtta kui antakse.
"ymeramees""ymeramees"
Virgin Galactic to launch Richard Branson on July 11, aiming to beat Jeff Bezos to space
Nii, nüüd võeti $50 stopiga esimese õhina ostjad välja. Aga nii mahapekstud peale FAA uudist, peaks nõrgad käed eelnevalt juba out olema. I'm in. Võin eksida
Ma arvan, et ei eksi. Päev on ees.
Ilmselt süüdlane see, et kogu WSB basket on korralikku veresauna saamas täna.
Isegi kui täna jääb tagasihoidlikuks, siis raske uskuda, et järgmine nädal see üles ei lähe.
"AlariÜ"
Said oma ASTS, DB init pt 35
Mõned väljavõtted DB Upgrade'st, mind ennast huvitas kuidas selle ettevõtte forward valuet oleks kõige loogilisem hinnata. 15-25x 2024E EBITDA vahemik on nende poolt loodud stsenaariumites valuatsiooni aluseks.
"Synopsis: We are initiating coverage of AST SpaceMobile with a Buy rating
and a $35 price target, which represents more than 3x the current stock
price. Our PT is based on an average of four model scenarios, and implies
EV/EBITDA multiples of 20x 2024E and 6x 2025E. If management executes
on plan over the next 4-5 years, we see intrinsic value ultimately being
significantly higher than our $35 PT reflects. Given management's
projections for $1 B in 2024 EBITDA, $2.6B in 2025, and $16B in 2031, a 6x
multiple in 2025 would be extremely low for such a high forward growth
outlook. However, the stock could also end up being worth $0 if AST's
technological solution to enable satellites to communicate directly with
smartphones doesn't work or scale as intended, or if the company's very
large (24m x 24m) arrays do not unfold in space as they are designed to
Asymmetrically Favorable Risk/Reward: Despite the risks and early stage
of the business, we are initiating with a Buy rating due to what we believe
is a highly favorable risk/reward ratio (-$10 and -$2 downside in our
negative scenarios, and +$35 and +$76 in our upside scenarios, and much
greater potential upside longer term with success). Our PT, which is based
on expected value, is more than 3x the current stock price.
Consumer mobility is a very large $1T market globally today. While SpaceMobile
isn't going head to head with Mobile operators in competing for subscribers, a
number of the -5B mobile subscribers globally still roam out of terrestrial cellular
coverage on a regular basis, and an estimated 4B people (roughly half of the world's
population) are still fully without mobile broadband internet access today (per
GSMA), 0.8B of which do not have any cellular service at all (and presumably none
of these individuals have fixed line broadband either). This creates an opportunity
for AST to use its satellite-based global coverage model to target both use cases
and, if successful, to expand the market while at the same time capturing a very
small slice of it. We see SpaceMobile having a higher probability of success than
other satcom alternatives given its greater accessibility, lower cost of adoption, and
affordable monthly service price (as low as -$1 per month in equatorial markets).
We estimate that AST only needs to capture a small proportion of this opportunity
in order to achieve meaningful financial success. For context, AST only needs to
win 2% of the total global unconnected population, or just 15% share of the ~51 OM
people that we think are the most likely to adopt SpaceMobile service (ie people
that live in Phase 1 coverage areas - equatorial markets, that are also covered by
AST's existing MNO partners, and who currently do not have mobile broadband
service), and zero market share from all other groups (ie phase 2-3 markets, plus
additional carrier partnerships), in order to hit our 2025 subscriber forecast.
There are risks to AST succeeding with its business plan, including the risk that the
technology does not work with MNO partners' networks from space or that it
doesn't scale as planned. There is also risk that the satellites' very large arrays will
not successfully unfold in orbit; if they can't, then AST might need to modify the
design, which will increase expenses and prolong time to market. There is risk that
the end demand just isn't there, or that competition is greater than expected (either
terrestrially or from another satcom solution). There are other risks too, although we
see most of those as potentially causing delays or cost overruns, rather than
undermining the entire business plan. In addition, performing due diligence on the
technology and patents is inherently prohibitive; we try to ask the right questions,
but ultimately we have to rely on what management has disclosed and said.
With the greatest downside scenario at -$10 per share and the most optimistic
upside scenario at +$76 per share (vs the current price), we see the risk/reward as
asymmetrically positive. Furthermore, 2024 is a measurement year
that is still early in this project's lifecycle. If we take AST management's 2030
EBITDA forecast of more than $16B and apply a 10x multiple (which we think is still
conservative given the business' expected growth profile), this implies a 2030
enterprise value of $163B (vs <$2B today). Discounting that EV back to the present
time at a 15% discount rate yields a share price of roughly $190 today. We are not
including this scenario in our valuation, nor are we endorsing it, but we do think that
it is important to illustrate the potential upside for ASTS longer term if the
technology works and management executes the business plan it has laid out."
SPCE - normaalne nädal.
Närv ei pea vastu, pool pos. tuleb täna koju tuua.
Ei julge esmp. oodata.
Ei julge esmp. oodata.
Ilma tõttu arvatavasti edasilükkamist ei tule.
Õnnestus. Live: virgingalactic.com
Huvitav kas ASTR, ASTS, OSAT jms kosmoseprügi prest lendab sümpaatiast Virginiga to the moon avanemisel või instant cräsh? Nii palju valikuid, nii higised käed...
Tehes rutiinset monitooringut valitsevatest meeleoludest, siis tundub, et minu reedene 1/2 pos. müük oli ennatlik.
Turg on eufoorias, hämmastab, et Marat täna hommikul long.
Turg on eufoorias, hämmastab, et Marat täna hommikul long.
Barclays analyst Mathieu Robilliard initiated coverage of AST SpaceMobile with an Overweight rating and $29 price target.
Deutsche initi tulevärki siia vist ei tule, aga päev veel noor kah.
Deutsche initi tulevärki siia vist ei tule, aga päev veel noor kah.
*VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS FILES TO SELL UP TO $500M STOCK
"carlos"
Sul on mingi kinnisidee, et Spac’id on kõik mingi scam.
ASTS puhul siis Vodafone, Rakuten, Samsung ja American tower panid sinna raha sisse, et loteriid mängida.
Ma pigem usun, et nemad on oma DD ära teinud.
Riski tulu suhe selle plaani õnnestumise korral on 100x akstiahinnas.
Ma olen sees 10a vaatega.
Igayks teeb ise oma valikud. Keegi ei sunni sul seda osta.
Ja veelkord, see Reddit kirjutis on kokkuvõte juba turule teadaolevast infost.
Momentus näiteks ON scam: LINK
"opex"
Jeff Bezos lendab õhku.....sorry, kosmosesse 20.07.21. www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57386049
Start kell 15:00 (kui kõik korras). Live.
MAXR - kvartal oli ok, isegi üle, aga non-recurring iseloomuga. Täisaasta jättis samaks, seega järgmised kvartalid vähe kehvem. Peanuts.
Eelmine kvartal sai sisse, kuna kvartal oli nats nässus ja lükkas oma Legion satelliitide lennutamise kolm kuud edasi.
Nüüd tegi seda uuesti, kuue kuu jagu. Analüütikud küsivad, miks LT targeteid ei kärbi, firma jäi seal ootele, et järsku veab välja.
Suurem tuleviku kasvumootor ja kena tiksuv rahalaev ühesõnaga niipea veel üles ei saa.
Normaalses maailmas võiks hitti saada rohkem kui aftekal, aga meil ei ole normaalne maailm.
Eelmine kvartal sai sisse, kuna kvartal oli nats nässus ja lükkas oma Legion satelliitide lennutamise kolm kuud edasi.
Nüüd tegi seda uuesti, kuue kuu jagu. Analüütikud küsivad, miks LT targeteid ei kärbi, firma jäi seal ootele, et järsku veab välja.
Suurem tuleviku kasvumootor ja kena tiksuv rahalaev ühesõnaga niipea veel üles ei saa.
Normaalses maailmas võiks hitti saada rohkem kui aftekal, aga meil ei ole normaalne maailm.