What a mess:
CDOs Imperiled by Collapse of Iceland Banks, S&P Says (Update1)
By Shannon D. Harrington
Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) – Iceland’s collapsed banks pose a substantial'' risk to collateralized debt obligations that made bets on corporate debt, according to Standard & Poor's. <br /><br />Kaupthing Bank hf, Landsbanki Islands hf and Glitnir Bank hf were included in 376 CDOs worldwide, S&P said. Another 297 made bets on two of the three banks. The CDOs packaged credit-default swaps that pay investors if there is a default, and the government's placement of the banks into receivership triggered a settlement of the contracts. <br /><br />Because the so-called synthetic CDOs also bet on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15, and Washington Mutual Inc., the bankrupt holding company of the largest U.S. lender to fail, the impact of these exposures is likely to be significant,‘’ S&P said in the statement yesterday.
Huvitav, kas araablased/hiinlased/jaapanlased ostavad oma SWF kaudu varsti sundmüügivara kokku - või kas enne seda langetatakse siin piisavalt intresse, et läänefirmad ostavad. Suur maailma varade ümberallokeerimine igal juhul käimas.
sundmüügivara ei pruugi tekkida kui tehakse sundoste
The Belgian government is prepared to take a stake in Kaupthing Bank to ensure that all Belgian savers at Iceland's biggest lender can get their money, financial daily De Tijd said on Thursday.
The Belgian government is prepared to take a stake in Kaupthing Bank to ensure that all Belgian savers at Iceland's biggest lender can get their money, financial daily De Tijd said on Thursday.
stefan, ma arvan, et see ei ole valik stiilis emb-kumb. Intresse langetatakse edasi - vaata, kus need eelmise kriisi ajal olid (USA 1 ja Euroopa 2) ning ka hiinlased sekkuvad tõepoolest ühel hetkel mängu.
Teine hea teema on muidugi see, et hiinlastel on kõvasti US T-bille. Kas nad ühel hetkel pahaseks ei saa, kui USA tegeleb hirmsa raha juurdetrükkimisega :-D Samas, mis nad teha saavad? See ei ole enam USA, vaid hiinlaste probleem.
Teine hea teema on muidugi see, et hiinlastel on kõvasti US T-bille. Kas nad ühel hetkel pahaseks ei saa, kui USA tegeleb hirmsa raha juurdetrükkimisega :-D Samas, mis nad teha saavad? See ei ole enam USA, vaid hiinlaste probleem.
nali vabamüürlastelt
toorainete hinnarallist teenitud raha vajas investeerimist ning selliste hindadega ei saanud ju kinnisvara ostma hakata:(
toorainete hinnarallist teenitud raha vajas investeerimist ning selliste hindadega ei saanud ju kinnisvara ostma hakata:(
Rootsi HQ Bank ostab Rootsi Glitnir.
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/10/16/foreign-central-banks-seek-safety-the-fed-by-contrast/#more-3895
Monetary base:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
M2
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page6.pdf
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page6.pdf
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/economists_warn_anti_bush
Anti bush merchandise tööstus kukkub kokku, muidugi tegemist onion newsiga, aga point on siiski olemas :)
Anti bush merchandise tööstus kukkub kokku, muidugi tegemist onion newsiga, aga point on siiski olemas :)
Veel "delevering":
Investors sold a record $2.3 billion of high-yield, high- risk debt in the first three weeks of October because of clauses in their funds' borrowing agreements that require them to raise money when prices drop below a set level, according to Standard & Poor's. With loans plunging to a record low 66 cents on the dollar last week from 88.5 cents at the beginning of September, the threshold is increasingly being hit.
At least $50 billion of forced sales may be ahead if prices continue to slide, S&P analysts predict. The actions help explain the sudden decline in prices and highlight the obstacles faced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in his efforts to unlock credit markets. As loan prices fall, yields are soaring, raising costs for companies just as the economy slows.
``It is absolutely the beginning,'' said Lynn Tilton, founder and chief executive officer of Patriarch Partners LLC in New York, which oversees $6 billion of distressed assets. Tumbling prices don't necessarily reflect ``what's actually going on in the underlying companies, but it becomes a self- fulfilling prophecy because the increased yields prohibit the easy access to capital,'' she said.
Worst Year
As many as 80 percent of funds that invest in the $600 billion loan market use borrowed money and many of those agreements are linked to market prices, according to Michael Herzig, managing director in alternative credit strategies in New York at McDonnell Investment Management LLC.
...
Loan funds such as Deerfield's, known as market-value collateralized loan obligations, would usually borrow $3 for every $1 of equity, Herzig said. CLOs pool loans and split them into new securities with varying yields and ratings.
The funds linked their structure to the price on loans in part because they are typically stable. The debt traded at an average of more than 100 cents on the dollar in June 2007, before the credit seizure, and had never fallen below 90 cents until February, according to S&P.
``Market value CLO methodology is based on historical price volatility, which had been very low for a very long time but has recently been thrown out on its ear as the global financial system is in a massive de-leveraging,'' said Herzig, who joined McDonnell earlier this year after being co-head of Deutsche Bank AG's collateralized debt obligation unit.
`Purely Technical'
The average loan is now trading at about its historical recovery rate of 70 cents on the dollar in a default, implying the entire market would have to go bust for investors to lose money, according to S&P.
``It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know these are purely technical things that don't refer to the credit quality of companies,'' said Howard Marks, chairman of Los Angeles- based Oaktree Capital Management LLC, which manages $56 billion. ``It's the difficulty of financing investments'' that is causing pries to fall, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWNJdgrpPF_o&refer=home
Investors sold a record $2.3 billion of high-yield, high- risk debt in the first three weeks of October because of clauses in their funds' borrowing agreements that require them to raise money when prices drop below a set level, according to Standard & Poor's. With loans plunging to a record low 66 cents on the dollar last week from 88.5 cents at the beginning of September, the threshold is increasingly being hit.
At least $50 billion of forced sales may be ahead if prices continue to slide, S&P analysts predict. The actions help explain the sudden decline in prices and highlight the obstacles faced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in his efforts to unlock credit markets. As loan prices fall, yields are soaring, raising costs for companies just as the economy slows.
``It is absolutely the beginning,'' said Lynn Tilton, founder and chief executive officer of Patriarch Partners LLC in New York, which oversees $6 billion of distressed assets. Tumbling prices don't necessarily reflect ``what's actually going on in the underlying companies, but it becomes a self- fulfilling prophecy because the increased yields prohibit the easy access to capital,'' she said.
Worst Year
As many as 80 percent of funds that invest in the $600 billion loan market use borrowed money and many of those agreements are linked to market prices, according to Michael Herzig, managing director in alternative credit strategies in New York at McDonnell Investment Management LLC.
...
Loan funds such as Deerfield's, known as market-value collateralized loan obligations, would usually borrow $3 for every $1 of equity, Herzig said. CLOs pool loans and split them into new securities with varying yields and ratings.
The funds linked their structure to the price on loans in part because they are typically stable. The debt traded at an average of more than 100 cents on the dollar in June 2007, before the credit seizure, and had never fallen below 90 cents until February, according to S&P.
``Market value CLO methodology is based on historical price volatility, which had been very low for a very long time but has recently been thrown out on its ear as the global financial system is in a massive de-leveraging,'' said Herzig, who joined McDonnell earlier this year after being co-head of Deutsche Bank AG's collateralized debt obligation unit.
`Purely Technical'
The average loan is now trading at about its historical recovery rate of 70 cents on the dollar in a default, implying the entire market would have to go bust for investors to lose money, according to S&P.
``It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know these are purely technical things that don't refer to the credit quality of companies,'' said Howard Marks, chairman of Los Angeles- based Oaktree Capital Management LLC, which manages $56 billion. ``It's the difficulty of financing investments'' that is causing pries to fall, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWNJdgrpPF_o&refer=home
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.
``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. ``There will be massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTHELG0dV_e8&refer=news
``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. ``There will be massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTHELG0dV_e8&refer=news
Küsimus nüüd, mis tuleb varem:
- intresside alandamised
-JPY tugiostud
- intresside alandamised
-JPY tugiostud
JPY tugiOSTUD? Ütleks ikka, et JPY müük teiste valuutade toetamiseks? Või mis?
vabandust
Roger Nightingale'i arvamus CNBCs täna oli peamiselt, et kõik maailma keskpangad peaksid nullini alandama, ja seda võimalikult kiiresti.
Äkki tõepoolest oleks keskpankadel vaja saata cash-omanikele sõnumi, et cash põleb ära kui seda ei kasutata.
Äkki tõepoolest oleks keskpankadel vaja saata cash-omanikele sõnumi, et cash põleb ära kui seda ei kasutata.
Huvitav, mida sisulist 0% intress selle Roger-and-over Nightmare'i arvates paremaks teeks? Taastaks rahas istuvate tegelaste usalduse finantsturgude osas? See oleks tõesti hea sõnum süsteemi stabiilsust silmas pidades: "Teie raha põleb kohe ära!"
fun
Mida kauem oodatakse, seda tõenäolisemaks muutub selline stsenaarium, ma arvan.
Huvitav oleks igal juhul vaadata mis juhtuks kui Fed ja ECB alnadas täna nullini.
Mida kauem oodatakse, seda tõenäolisemaks muutub selline stsenaarium, ma arvan.
Huvitav oleks igal juhul vaadata mis juhtuks kui Fed ja ECB alnadas täna nullini.
alandaksid