Kas seda labi Hanzaneti Investorkeskkonna ka saab lahitulevikus osta? Hetkel sealsetes fondinimekirjades see veel ei kajastu.
Hello Romanas,
I'm going to take advatange of this excellent advantage and ask a question about one Lithuanian company. I'm sure there is widespread interest in Lithuanian market among the Estonian clients of LHV and I think it's unfortunate that there has been quite little direct information from LHV about that market yet. Although my question is not directly connected to the new fund, I hope you still find a chance to give me your opinion.
What do you think about Žemaitijos Pienas? There is next to no information about it in the local financial media and therefore we must only use what the company gives us via OMX website. Which is actually not that much. The price of the share has come tumbling down recently. The results, profit wise, weren't thrilling for Q1 but were still a little bit better yoy-based with revenue rising as well. Still, the valuation looks appealing with P/B 0,6 (2006) and P/E 7,7 (2007 Q1) or 6,6 with cash per share (3 LTL) reduced.
I know there are problems with the price of raw milk in the Lithuanian dairy industry but with good demand, producers should be able to re-price their consumer products accordingly? ZMP also seems to have it's share of loan although it has been on a decrease. What are your thoughts on the low valuations of this stock, that obviously seem to suggest that the profit of the group is expected to be on a clear decrease? So far it hasn't been the case.
I'm going to take advatange of this excellent advantage and ask a question about one Lithuanian company. I'm sure there is widespread interest in Lithuanian market among the Estonian clients of LHV and I think it's unfortunate that there has been quite little direct information from LHV about that market yet. Although my question is not directly connected to the new fund, I hope you still find a chance to give me your opinion.
What do you think about Žemaitijos Pienas? There is next to no information about it in the local financial media and therefore we must only use what the company gives us via OMX website. Which is actually not that much. The price of the share has come tumbling down recently. The results, profit wise, weren't thrilling for Q1 but were still a little bit better yoy-based with revenue rising as well. Still, the valuation looks appealing with P/B 0,6 (2006) and P/E 7,7 (2007 Q1) or 6,6 with cash per share (3 LTL) reduced.
I know there are problems with the price of raw milk in the Lithuanian dairy industry but with good demand, producers should be able to re-price their consumer products accordingly? ZMP also seems to have it's share of loan although it has been on a decrease. What are your thoughts on the low valuations of this stock, that obviously seem to suggest that the profit of the group is expected to be on a clear decrease? So far it hasn't been the case.
sorry for a few typos here and there :-)
Uustalu, antud fond on hetkel mõeldud spetsiaalselt LHV klientidele, mistõttu peab fondi ostmiseks ennast kliendiks registreerima.
millal fondiosakud kontole jõuavad?
LHV Tõusva Euroopa Alfa fondi saab võimenduse tagatiseks kasutada ning tagatismäär tavapärane 100%. Fonditehingu kinnitamine toimub ostule järgneval kauplemispäeval kell 16.00. Täpsem info fondide tehinguaegade kohta.
Huvitav kas LHV Tõusva Euroopa Alfa Fond investeerib Balti turul LHV kauplejakonto alt? Ja nt kui fond ostab Eesti aktsiaid, siis kas see kajastub ka kolme päeva pärast sellenimelise fondi järgi e-registris?
Fondi depoopank on Hansapank ning aktsiaid hoitakse Hansapangas avatud kontodel.
Kui fond on mõeldud ainult LHV klientidele, siis kas see ongi mõeldud väikeseks nishitooteks? Kui suurt mahtu fondile ootate/soovite/prognoosite?
rivo20,
fond peab hoidma kõiki oma varasid depoopanga juures, antud juhul siis Hansapangas, mistõttu LHV juures mingeid aktsiaid hoida ei saa. Maaklerina kasutame Baltikumi puhul LHV-d ja ülejäänud turgude puhul Hansapanka. Fondil on oma väärtpaberikonto ning seega näeb e-registrist ka fondi osalust Eesti aktsiates.
fond peab hoidma kõiki oma varasid depoopanga juures, antud juhul siis Hansapangas, mistõttu LHV juures mingeid aktsiaid hoida ei saa. Maaklerina kasutame Baltikumi puhul LHV-d ja ülejäänud turgude puhul Hansapanka. Fondil on oma väärtpaberikonto ning seega näeb e-registrist ka fondi osalust Eesti aktsiates.
Selge, teadsin küll, et kasutate depoopanka, aga ei teadnud, mida see endast täpselt kujutab. Tänud.
kuna hanza seal figureerib nii maaklerina kui depoopangana võiks ehk ka nemad seda müüma hakata või on see rangelt välistatud?
momentum,
ei saa Su küsimusele väga täpselt vastata. Päris nishitooteks ei plaani jääda, kuid mahu poolest suhteliselt väikeseks küll. Ning seda viimast asjaolu on meie kohustus investorite kasuks pöörata.
opex,
rangelt ei ole midagi välistatud, kuid lähiajal ei näe seda võimalust kahjuks ette.
ei saa Su küsimusele väga täpselt vastata. Päris nishitooteks ei plaani jääda, kuid mahu poolest suhteliselt väikeseks küll. Ning seda viimast asjaolu on meie kohustus investorite kasuks pöörata.
opex,
rangelt ei ole midagi välistatud, kuid lähiajal ei näe seda võimalust kahjuks ette.
There was a question regarding ZMP. In general milk stocks are out of favor in Lithuania, currently, as the margins of the companies get squeezed. The turnover is still growing on the account of export, but export is also a low-margin business. Thus there are no hopes for dramatic increase of profitability, making the stocks dull. Still, ZMP has issues of it is own. Being the smallest out of the big 3 it is squeezed from raw material market, furthermore the CEO doesn't care too much about small shareholders. The only reason some people still invest in this stock is a recurring rumour that the company will be taken over by one of its competitors. Thus, my own outlook is slightly negative.
Romanas:
As you noted before:
"We are rather absolute return oriented fund - the aim is to make consistently 15-20% over many years to come. And I can promise that this fund will be much less correlated with target stock markets than other funds."
- Since this fund looks like a sector(ish) fund to me, what has the historical beta of the sector (or whatever you want to call your defined universe) been to the market? Does that correspond to your expected beta for the next 20 years?
- Also, seeing the term "absolute return" used in the context of a long-only fund investing in end-consumer related industries...well, it really must be different this time!
- Now, apologies for continuing to drag on the issue raised by other before, but...As a potential investor, I would be concerned with the absence of at least some sort of benchmarks/targets. Since you have (broadly) defined your target sector(s), I am buying the sector return and the alpha you generate on top of that. Now the 2.5% management fee suggests I should only invest in the fund to expect decent alpha - but how will I be able to measure it? Will you provide an artificial benchmark?
As you noted before:
"We are rather absolute return oriented fund - the aim is to make consistently 15-20% over many years to come. And I can promise that this fund will be much less correlated with target stock markets than other funds."
- Since this fund looks like a sector(ish) fund to me, what has the historical beta of the sector (or whatever you want to call your defined universe) been to the market? Does that correspond to your expected beta for the next 20 years?
- Also, seeing the term "absolute return" used in the context of a long-only fund investing in end-consumer related industries...well, it really must be different this time!
- Now, apologies for continuing to drag on the issue raised by other before, but...As a potential investor, I would be concerned with the absence of at least some sort of benchmarks/targets. Since you have (broadly) defined your target sector(s), I am buying the sector return and the alpha you generate on top of that. Now the 2.5% management fee suggests I should only invest in the fund to expect decent alpha - but how will I be able to measure it? Will you provide an artificial benchmark?
Hi, gatsby!
First of all, I would like to disagree that the fund is "sector(ish)", it is not. Rather it is truly "domestic" in a sense that it depends solely on the local economies, and not on commodities prices or other things beyond economies of the region (like refining margin).
Now - let's talk about betas. Beta is a bit elusive concept, the numerous research has shown that betas of the same industries are not transportable across border, e.g. betas of banks is different in America and in Europe. The main reason for that is different composition of reference index. I have read a proprietary research on CEE markets which outlines that banking, for example, has beta close to 1. American banks are said to have betas in the range 0.7-0.8, which doesn't mean that American banks are safer. CEE economies, and especially stock exchanges have a sampling bias, making the stock indices (on which betas are regressed) too much "old economy" artificially raising betas of all companies quoted as compared to well developed market. Still, it is rather intuitive that beta of Emerging Europe Alpha fund will be close to 1, thus if take any regional composite index like CESI, New Europe Top 20 etc - the Fund shouldn't be any riskier as those indices (defined by the variation of daily returns).
I don't understand why you take issue with "long-only fund investing in end-consumer related industries". The fund will be non-cyclical (which is good for long term), non-dependent on volatile commodities and capitalising on long term macro trend. This is the reason we have chosen this strategy in the first place.
First of all, I would like to disagree that the fund is "sector(ish)", it is not. Rather it is truly "domestic" in a sense that it depends solely on the local economies, and not on commodities prices or other things beyond economies of the region (like refining margin).
Now - let's talk about betas. Beta is a bit elusive concept, the numerous research has shown that betas of the same industries are not transportable across border, e.g. betas of banks is different in America and in Europe. The main reason for that is different composition of reference index. I have read a proprietary research on CEE markets which outlines that banking, for example, has beta close to 1. American banks are said to have betas in the range 0.7-0.8, which doesn't mean that American banks are safer. CEE economies, and especially stock exchanges have a sampling bias, making the stock indices (on which betas are regressed) too much "old economy" artificially raising betas of all companies quoted as compared to well developed market. Still, it is rather intuitive that beta of Emerging Europe Alpha fund will be close to 1, thus if take any regional composite index like CESI, New Europe Top 20 etc - the Fund shouldn't be any riskier as those indices (defined by the variation of daily returns).
I don't understand why you take issue with "long-only fund investing in end-consumer related industries". The fund will be non-cyclical (which is good for long term), non-dependent on volatile commodities and capitalising on long term macro trend. This is the reason we have chosen this strategy in the first place.
As for Gatsby's scepticism on 'absolut return' and long-only consumer industries investing combination, I think it is very relevant thing to keep in mind. While there can be hardly any doubt that the region shall see a steady long-term growth in the sector, the bear market may well give the whole thing a bit different valuation. It may not be a long-term trend in the region that these types of companies are trading at 15-20 times EV/EBITDA or 40+ times fwd looking earnings. Also, as we all know, future forecasts on growth/profits look very different in bear market.
The bottom line is that if it was possible to combine steady growth in the consumer sector with limited downside for when the markets turn, it most probably would already exist.
Best of luck with it anyway!
The bottom line is that if it was possible to combine steady growth in the consumer sector with limited downside for when the markets turn, it most probably would already exist.
Best of luck with it anyway!
Hi, Blink!
Very good comments indeed, I fully subscribe to. It would be nice if valuations were 40+, but there are 60-70 cases, or even shrinking turnovers, losses and still rising prices. All those excesses will be purged with the time. That is where our "alpha" concept comes into play. There are some 500+ stocks quoted in CEE alone (without Russia and Ukraine), and not all of them get enough coverage. Majority of foreign funds just buy top 10-15 stocks by capitalization in the region - this is the reason their portfolios look like twins. For the reasons you cited, we also believe that good deal of those valuations are unsustainable and will wind up with the time. Witness the fact that, say, on Polish market MIDWIG index has been beating WIG20 for some years already. It just shows that the value is in mid-caps, not in large caps that have been fully priced already. Other thing - we will see some consolidation and takeover stories in the region from which we also as a fund will profit. Just remeber the Pliva saga which allowed shareholders to realise substantial profit. I wonder what were the price of Pliva now after first quarter's disasterous results.
Very good comments indeed, I fully subscribe to. It would be nice if valuations were 40+, but there are 60-70 cases, or even shrinking turnovers, losses and still rising prices. All those excesses will be purged with the time. That is where our "alpha" concept comes into play. There are some 500+ stocks quoted in CEE alone (without Russia and Ukraine), and not all of them get enough coverage. Majority of foreign funds just buy top 10-15 stocks by capitalization in the region - this is the reason their portfolios look like twins. For the reasons you cited, we also believe that good deal of those valuations are unsustainable and will wind up with the time. Witness the fact that, say, on Polish market MIDWIG index has been beating WIG20 for some years already. It just shows that the value is in mid-caps, not in large caps that have been fully priced already. Other thing - we will see some consolidation and takeover stories in the region from which we also as a fund will profit. Just remeber the Pliva saga which allowed shareholders to realise substantial profit. I wonder what were the price of Pliva now after first quarter's disasterous results.
Romanas,
the auction for the shares of Stumbras is almost at hand. Do you care to comment if LHV is interested in participating as an institutional investor? Is there any feedback from other institutional investors as is there any interest? The action in STU orderbook has been calm as always although potential bidders are probably looking at the auction and ignoring the free market for now?
the auction for the shares of Stumbras is almost at hand. Do you care to comment if LHV is interested in participating as an institutional investor? Is there any feedback from other institutional investors as is there any interest? The action in STU orderbook has been calm as always although potential bidders are probably looking at the auction and ignoring the free market for now?
Olen pikalt möelnud kas osta LHV Euroopa Alfa Fond osakuid või siis osta City Service aktsiad.
On kellegil poolt ja vastu argumente?
On kellegil poolt ja vastu argumente?