Laevandus

TOO ka üks kirjatükk- tegemist ei ole soovitusega, aga kuna jälgin kogu Teekay grupi toimetamist ja siin mõni teine veel, sis lisan.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4241745-teekay-offshore-clearly-market-made-mistake?app=1&isDirectRoadblock=true
Täna tulevad Nordic American Tankers tulemused, tegemist puhtalt suezmax mängija.

Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) - Telephone Conference for Shareholders/ Investors, Wednesday February 20, 2019 at 08:00 am US Eastern Time

Bermuda February 19, 2019

As communicated to the market on February 11, 2019, a conference call will be held at 08:00 am US Eastern Time Wednesday February 20, 2019.
Võimalik, et mõnel tehasel tööd tükiks ajaks.

Qatar's plans to order as many as 60 new LNG ships.
NAT tulemused väljas, tõstab divi 4 korda !!! ( 1 sendilt 4 le)

loss -10M
IN 3Q2018 THE ADJUSTED NET OPERATING EARNINGS WERE $2.1 MILLION. I.E. THE
4Q2018 WAS $21.5 MILLION BETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS QUARTER

Suht madal

"the tce (time charter equivalent) for our vessels in 4Q2018 was $20,100 per day per ship"

Herbi stiilini näide kuidas firmat kiita tuleb:

NATIS WELL POSITIONED IN THE TANKER MARKET. THE HISTORIC AVERAGE MARKET RATE FOR
THE LAST 25 YEARS WAS ABOUT $30,000 PER DAY PER SUEZMAX VESSEL. SUCH EARNINGS WOULD
GIVE A SOLID EXCESS CASHFLOW FROM OPERATIONS.
Aga q1 tundub parem tulema

AT THE TIME OF THIS REPORT WE HAVE COVERED 70% OF THE INCOME IN 1Q2019 AT ABOUT
$25.000 PER DAY, OR MORE
ANTWERP, Belgium, 20 February 2019 – Euronav NV (NYSE: EURN & Euronext: EURN) ("Euronav" or the "Company") announces that the Company has sold the LR1 Genmar Compatriot (2004 – 72,768 dwt) for USD 6.75 million. The vessel will be delivered to her new owners in the course of April 2019. The Company will record a capital gain of approximately USD 0.4 million in the second quarter.

The LR1 Genmar Compatriot joined the Euronav fleet as part of the Gener8 merger in June 2018 and was always a non-core asset to the Company.

With this LR1 being sold, Euronav’s owned and operated fleet consists of 72 top segment vessels: 2 ULCCs, 43 VLCCs, 25 Suezmaxes and 2 FSO vessels (both owned in 50%-50% joint venture).
Täna Teekay Tankers q4 tulemused, nagu oodata oli, EPS beatis korralikult.

EPS 0.04 ja tulu 240M (ise ootasin positiivsemal juhul eps 0.07) analüütikute ootus 0,01 ja 0,02

Q4 actual rates

Suezmax: $23,600
Aframax: $21,100
LR2: $19,800

70% of Q1 booked at $26K (Suezmax)
68% of Q1 booked at $28.5 (Aframax)

$44.5m in Free Cash Flow

No dividend. Cash retained to help pay off debt.

As of February 20, 2019, the Company had total liquidity of approximately $115 million, which does not reflect the signed term sheet for a sale-leaseback transaction announced today, which is expected to add approximately $25 million of additional liquidity."

[Basically $140m in cash on hand]
Päris tugev ekspordi tõus tulemas U.S- st

U.S. crude exports during the second half of 2019 from approximately 2.5 mb/d at present to approximately 4 mb/d, which is expected to contribute to both crude tanker demand and U.S. Gulf lightering demand.
IMO 2020 means ship owners are going to have to start buying new fuels 3 to 4 months ahead of January 1. They are projecting to see impacts of incremental IMO 2020 demand in late Q2 and early Q3.
01/22 Teekay Offshore Partners, Teekay Corp. rating change Teekay Offshore Partners downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley. As previously reported, Morgan Stanley analyst Fotis Giannakoulis downgraded Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO) to Underweight from Equal Weight, citing his lower oil price forecast and its impact on the Floating Production Storage and Offloading business. He sees lower oil prices putting pressure on its oil linked FPSO contracts and making redeployment of its assets more difficult, Giannakoulis tells investors. He cut his price target on Teekay Offshore Partners shares to $1 from $2.75 and also lowered his price target on Teekay Corporation (TK) to $3 from $6.50.

TNK sai sama sahmaka.

TheFly
FRO tulemused, päris kenad bronnid q1 2019

Spot TCE of $41,300 contracted for 84% of vessel days for VLCCs, spot TCE of $33,300 contracted for 77% of
vessel days for Suezmax tankers and spot TCE of $26,100 contracted for 73% of vessel days for LR2/Aframax
tankers, estimated for the first quarter of 2019, including deferred revenue recognition from the fourth quarter
of 2018.
Fro beatis nii NAT-i, TNK, kui ka EURN oma määradega, ka lukus määrad suurimad q1 2019.




VLCC tasud mitte tavapäraselt tõusevad, põhjus pikad otsad U.S Aasia, kus laevade tavapärane reis ca 70 päeva.
Suezmaxid ja Afra hinnad järgivad tsüklit hetkel, ehk languses.
See aasta tuleb päris huvitav, kuskil 1800 laevale pannakse puhastuse süsteemid -scrubberid peale, aga ca 95% laevastikust hakkab tarbima madalama väävlisisaldusega kütust, mida varsti peaks rafineerijad tegema hakkama. Kuna kõige rohkem pannakse laevadest scrubbereid peale just vlcc, siis see hinna anomaalia võib päris huvitavaks minna aasta keskpaigas. Paigaldus lisab ca 10 päeva tavalisele hoolduse ajale. FRO-st jäi silma, et tükikese hind seal 2,5M kandis.



In fact, looking at the cargo programs over the first three months of
2019 (Jan-Mar laycans) we have seen some 80 fixtures from the USG and Brazil,
compared to 29 fixtures over that same period from last year. That has been the
driving factor behind the recovery in the AG/east rates that have pushed to year-todate highs, with TCE’s approaching the $50,000 pd level. All this despite the 1.2
million bpd OPEC cut from January 1 and the newbuilding schedule, which is seeing
more than one VLCC per week, enter the market.
WSJ kirjutas mõni päev tagasi, et laevaehitajatel pole eriti head ajad, aga need kes LNG tankereid ehitavad või omavad võivad väga rahul olla, sest USA gaasi- ja selle ekspordi buum vajab laevu. Praegu 520 ookeanikõlbulikku LNG laeva, aga lähiajal lisandub 150+, üle poole neist ehitatud Koreas (ühinevad Hyundai Heavy&Daewoo Marine). Kallid ka, $175m/tk., st pea topelt võrreldes nafta-supertankeritega.
Laevaomanikud hõõruvad käsi, pole sellist asja olnud peale 60ndate naftabuumi, äri tundub hea olevat.
"shipowner George Prokopiou: “If you are in shipping, you can’t ignore LNG.”
Prokopiou is chairman of Dynagas LNG Partners LP, which has five icebreaking LNG carriers on long-term contracts to move gas from the Yamal project in the Russian arctic. He operates more than 100 ships, including crude oil supertankers and dry bulk carriers.
Demand from Japan, China, India and Southeast Asia that has helped triple seaborne gas cargoes since 2000 to 308 million metric tons last year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Capacity for another 170 million metric tons is expected to be added by 2030. U.S. LNG export capacity will reach 8.9 billion cubic feet a day, more than double the current 3.6 billion cubic feet, this year.-- “Now, many shipowners prefer to trade their LNG tankers on the spot market as they see profits from the upside potential,” said Basil Karatzas, of Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. “This is unprecedented, because the ships involved are very expensive.”
Still, owners expect demand to run ahead of shipping capacity until at least 2024, meaning five years of healthy freight rates. “With the new U.S. LNG plants, quite a few vessels will be required fairly quickly as there is no spare capacity out there"
Oslo börsil on miski Merkur turg kus eile Epic Gas lendas +28% peale seda kui enne 54,7% aktsiate omanik BW Group (maailma suurim LPG e. propaani, butaani 144 laeva omanik) teatas, et ostab ülejäänud Epicu ka ära, saades 39 väiksemat LPG laeva lisaks. BW-l LNG laevu ka aga pole vist börsil.
Hinnad hooajale kohased, kui rafineerijad hooldusi teevad.
Siin üks hariv kokkuvõte ajaloost, kuidas mingid hinnad ja tsüklid käivad käsikäes. (NAT kiitmise laulu kohad võib vahele jätta). https://www.nat.bm/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Artcic-NAT-Company-update.pdf
Fro üleval, aga shortimiseks aktsiat kahjuks saada pole.

Tõusu põhjus ka: Frontline sees shares spike as Pareto Securities predicts tanker turning point
John Fredriksen’s Frontline saw its stock spike in Oslo on Monday after an upgrade from Pareto Securities, which believes a decisive turning point in the tanker market is pending. Frontline, which has experienced a strong share-price performance.

Ise selles lõpliku pöörde punkti veel ei usu.

Panen ka ühe sarnase rally olukorra minevikust 29.11.2019
Laevanduses siis väike huvitav info killuke (TNK F-20), mis maksab laevade liisingu tehingud .

In November 2018, we completed an $84.7 million sale-leaseback financing transaction relating to four of our vessels. The transaction was structured as 10 to 12-year bareboat charters with an average rate of approximately $6,400 per day, with purchase options for all four vessels throughout the lease term beginning in November 2021.
We used the proceeds from this transaction to refinance one of our corporate revolvers, which matured in November 2018, and to prepay a portion of one of our corporate revolving credit facilities.

In September 2018, we completed a $156.6 million sale-leaseback financing transaction relating to six of our vessels. The transaction was structured as nine to 10-year bareboat charters with an average rate of approximately $9,900 per day, with purchase options for all six vessels throughout the lease term beginning in September 2020
and an obligation to purchase the vessels on maturity of the bareboat charters. We used the proceeds from this transaction to repay a portion of one of our corporate revolving credit facilities.