IMF on värskelt maha saanud oma maailmavaatega, eraldi on ühe riskantseima piirkonnana märgitud Ida-Euroopat. Ft: The economies of eastern Europe are vulnerable to a reversal of the surge of private capital that has poured into emerging markets in recent years, the International Monetary Fund says in its latest World Economic Outlook analysis, published today.
The IMF says “large capital inflows are of particular concern to countries with substantial current account deficits, such as many in emerging Europe”, as well as countries with inflexible exchange rate regimes.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/02/index.htm
Täitsa nõus. Konvergentsistoori on läbi, ühes teises foorumis arutletud "asset price inflation" story on läbi. Võimul on populistid, kes ei jaga ööd ega mütsi jne... Sort-of sarnane olukord nagu kodumaal...aa...õigus, meie olime ka ju KIE...
Ei Karumõmm, nagu Ansip ütleb on meie maal hea ja muret tundma me ei pea. Paistab viisnurk kollane otse minu aknasse...
Tahaks tõsta käe poliitiliselt ebakorrektselt ühe KIE väikeriigi valitsusjuhi tervituseks... NOT!!!!!!!!
Samas võib mõneti Ansipit ka mõista. Kui juba sellises mingis mõttes treeneri positsioonis oled, tuleb oma mehed kuidagi edasi mängimas hoida, kuigi mänguõnn on selgelt pööramas. Päris hull oleks, kui treener koguks satsi kokku ja teeks neile selgeks, millised arutud lojused need õigupoolest on olnud ja et tema meelest pole mingit võimalust mängu võita.
ja nii mõnelgi juhul pöördub hea lobitöö puhul ka mänguõnn (ehk siis varjatud ressursid pannakse tööle)
Kes korvpalli pisut jälgib, sellele ilmselt tundub samuti, et Andres Sõber oleks suurepärane järglane Ansipile peaministri koha peal, kui asjad kehvemini minema hakkavad :)
noh, OK, tõstan regiooni tervikuna "accumulate" peale.
Samas: Time in the market substantially reduces the risk of loss resulting from holding both stocks and bonds. By focusing on a downside VaR risk proxy in 25 emerging and 24 developed markets we show that the downside risk of both stocks and bonds is greatly reduced as the investment horizon is increased beyond 10 years, but the risk reduction is more pronounced in stocks. We also show that emerging markets have substantially greater downside risk than developed markets. The results suggest that investors should be very aware of their investment horizon when making asset allocation decisions, particularly into stocks in emerging markets.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1092171
Samas: Time in the market substantially reduces the risk of loss resulting from holding both stocks and bonds. By focusing on a downside VaR risk proxy in 25 emerging and 24 developed markets we show that the downside risk of both stocks and bonds is greatly reduced as the investment horizon is increased beyond 10 years, but the risk reduction is more pronounced in stocks. We also show that emerging markets have substantially greater downside risk than developed markets. The results suggest that investors should be very aware of their investment horizon when making asset allocation decisions, particularly into stocks in emerging markets.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1092171
Selline infokild: Property consultants formed against Immofinanz / Immoeast and Financial Market Authority.
Seven advisor to the newly founded association "Immoverlust" strengthened against the responsible persons in the Causa Immofinanz and Immoeast proceed. It should also not be excluded, the "failure to supervision" of the Financial Market Authority (FMA) to challenge.
Rohkemat esialgu midagi ei tea.
Allikas: http://www.gomopa.info/ - Financial Intelligence Service (Austria)
Seven advisor to the newly founded association "Immoverlust" strengthened against the responsible persons in the Causa Immofinanz and Immoeast proceed. It should also not be excluded, the "failure to supervision" of the Financial Market Authority (FMA) to challenge.
Rohkemat esialgu midagi ei tea.
Allikas: http://www.gomopa.info/ - Financial Intelligence Service (Austria)
Immoeastist kadus ju suurusjärk 500M EURi cashi minema nelja tuule poole. Keegi ei tea, mis juhtus või kuhu läks. Väideti alguses, et osteti mingit võlakirja. Aga kui maturity käes oli, siis raha tagasi ei tulnud. Siis hakkas keegi uurima, et mis võlakiri see oli. Sealt tuli välja vist pikapeale välja, et selle rahaga oli mingite skeemide läbi lihtsalt emaettevõtte Immofinanzi aktsiaid ostetud, mille väärtus muidugi ära kukkunud oli. Aga keegi midagi täpsemalt ei tea. Igatahes prokuratuur alustas krim. asja juba millalgi okt-nov vist. Ilmselge fraud ja üllatav, et Austrias selline asi läbi läks. Aga noh, SEC lasi ka Madoffil rahulikult tegutseda üsna pikalt :)
Aktsiate tagasiost on ju positiivne tegu juhtkonna poolt.Lihtsalt õnnetu juhus, et kriis tuli :O)
Eastern Europe Reels as Exports Fall . Halvad uudised väljas ja millalgi 2009 aastal võiks nüüd nüüd vähemalt Aasia kriisiaegsete aktsiaturgude käitumise eeskujul turud oma põhjad teha.
The Asian Crisis and Investor Behavior in Thailand’s Equity Market
results indicate that foreign investors tend to increase their net buying (buying
less selling) after an increase in stock price of a few days, whereas individual
investors in Thailand tend to increase their net buying after a drop in the stock
price of a few days. The trading patterns of foreign and individual investors are
unchanged before, during and after the Asian crisis, regardless of the large
change in the condition of Thailand’s market. We also observe positive stock
returns following foreigners’ net buying, and negative stock returns after
individuals’ net buying during all periods. Wealth transfer by short-term
speculation from Thailand’s domestic investors to foreign investors is found to be
300–1600 million Baht for the 18 months before the crisis period, 500–1800
million Baht during the 15 months of the crisis, and 700–3000 million Baht in
the 15 months following the crisis, depending on the assumptions imposed on
investment horizons. Foreign investors’ superiority in market timing is observed
in all three periods, even when trade performance is evaluated on the basis of US
dollar-based returns.
Kuidas tekitada turul sellist momentumit, mis välisinvestoreid kaasama hakkaks? Vähemasti Eesti turg on aasta algus mingit pidamist jälle näidanud, hoolimata nendest Suprema Investeerimisakadeemia kauplemispraktikumidest.
The Asian Crisis and Investor Behavior in Thailand’s Equity Market
results indicate that foreign investors tend to increase their net buying (buying
less selling) after an increase in stock price of a few days, whereas individual
investors in Thailand tend to increase their net buying after a drop in the stock
price of a few days. The trading patterns of foreign and individual investors are
unchanged before, during and after the Asian crisis, regardless of the large
change in the condition of Thailand’s market. We also observe positive stock
returns following foreigners’ net buying, and negative stock returns after
individuals’ net buying during all periods. Wealth transfer by short-term
speculation from Thailand’s domestic investors to foreign investors is found to be
300–1600 million Baht for the 18 months before the crisis period, 500–1800
million Baht during the 15 months of the crisis, and 700–3000 million Baht in
the 15 months following the crisis, depending on the assumptions imposed on
investment horizons. Foreign investors’ superiority in market timing is observed
in all three periods, even when trade performance is evaluated on the basis of US
dollar-based returns.
Kuidas tekitada turul sellist momentumit, mis välisinvestoreid kaasama hakkaks? Vähemasti Eesti turg on aasta algus mingit pidamist jälle näidanud, hoolimata nendest Suprema Investeerimisakadeemia kauplemispraktikumidest.
Shares in Erste Group Bank , emerging Europe's third-biggest lender, rose 8.6 percent in early trading on Wednesday, after its chief executive gave a bullish interview on Austrian television.
CEO Andreas Treichl said the recent slump in the share price had "nothing to do with the real economic situation of our bank ... I do not think that the situation has become dangerous for Austrian banks in central and eastern Europe".
Ameeriklased (ja mingil määral UK, kelle pankadel pole CEE-s sellist kaalu) üritavad muuhulgas oma probleemidelt tähelepanu hajutamiseks maailma panna uskuma, et CEE on "WE subprime" probleem ja CEE-s toimetajad üritavad seda arvamust väärata. Minu arvates pole see arvamus (pikemaajaliselt) põhjendatud ja CEE elanike madalam palgatase tuleneb ajaloolisest taustast, mitte nende olemuslikust allajäämisest.
CEO Andreas Treichl said the recent slump in the share price had "nothing to do with the real economic situation of our bank ... I do not think that the situation has become dangerous for Austrian banks in central and eastern Europe".
Ameeriklased (ja mingil määral UK, kelle pankadel pole CEE-s sellist kaalu) üritavad muuhulgas oma probleemidelt tähelepanu hajutamiseks maailma panna uskuma, et CEE on "WE subprime" probleem ja CEE-s toimetajad üritavad seda arvamust väärata. Minu arvates pole see arvamus (pikemaajaliselt) põhjendatud ja CEE elanike madalam palgatase tuleneb ajaloolisest taustast, mitte nende olemuslikust allajäämisest.
muuseas täna üsna mitmel korral CEE teema Ft Alphavilles. Huvitav, et CS võttis oma 5-ndal joonisel alguspunktiks 2008 suve, Batlikumi näitel pigem alguspunkt Q1 07 või suvi 07.
intervjuu WB Zoellick'iga: Zoellick urges EU to help east Europe. Tundub, et Austria (eile mingis ÄP kirjutises küll Austraalia) jt. järjest häälekam mure CEE pärast leiab mõningast ärakuulamist.
Raiffeisen tulistab täna ... tuleb välja algselt 26. märtsil avaldada plaanitud tulemustega, et turuosalisi rahustada
algselt oli 2008 aasta eesmärk 1 miljard EUR kasumit, kui 4. kvartalis see alandati 950 miljoni EUR peale seoses keerulise olukorraga finantsturgudel
Raiffeisen International’s preliminary full-year results: another record consolidated profit at 982 million euros
The decision to publish the preliminary results was made due to the current uncertain market conditions. The information contained in this release is based on unaudited figures. The complete annual report, which will include full details regarding the business year 2008, will be presented on 26 March.
algselt oli 2008 aasta eesmärk 1 miljard EUR kasumit, kui 4. kvartalis see alandati 950 miljoni EUR peale seoses keerulise olukorraga finantsturgudel
Raiffeisen International’s preliminary full-year results: another record consolidated profit at 982 million euros
The decision to publish the preliminary results was made due to the current uncertain market conditions. The information contained in this release is based on unaudited figures. The complete annual report, which will include full details regarding the business year 2008, will be presented on 26 March.
Ambrose Daily Telegraphist võtab teema kohta väga negatiivses võtmes sõna: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html
telegraaf, see on nii vana lugu juba - läbi näritud, siin läbi arutatud, natuke nutetud ja teadmiseks võetud ;-)
mis seal ikka mõmm, jätan siiski nimele ja tehnikale truuks. teinekord jääb siin künka otsas tehtud arutlustest väheks ja tasub kommentaariumisse pilk visata.
Detsembris CEE valuutasid shortida soovitanud GS: On Wednesday, Goldman strategists said they would close the trade for a gain of 8%. Currency weakness "has accelerated in exponential fashion over the last few days," wrote Goldman's strategists, "in line with anecdotal evidence that the trade is now becoming very well-watched and oversubscribed."
wsj
wsj