Kas nüüd tekib nn. must turg kus keegi kingib ( kui müüa ei tohi) oma osaluse teatud summa eest.
Samamoodi võib tegelikult kujutada Yellenit või Draghit USA ja Euroopa aktsiaturgude kõrverate all
Võimenduse (kollane) langus on aeglustunud.....eile kahanes vaid 1,46 triljoni jüaani pealt 1,44 triljoni jüaani peale
Hiina autoturu jahtumine ja müügistruktuuri muutumine rohkem kohalike tootjate ning SUVde kasuks viis Volkswageni Hiina koostööpartneri esimese poolaasta müügi 11,3% langusesse
• Volkswagen’s China Partner Says Co. 1H Sales ‘Fail’: Auto News
• Changes in the market structure was “beyond our expectations,” China Auto News report, citing FAW-VW’s board secretary Sun Guowang.
• FAW-VW 1H sales fell 11.3% y/y: report
• Sales performance was not up to expectations: Sun
• Volkswagen’s China Partner Says Co. 1H Sales ‘Fail’: Auto News
• Changes in the market structure was “beyond our expectations,” China Auto News report, citing FAW-VW’s board secretary Sun Guowang.
• FAW-VW 1H sales fell 11.3% y/y: report
• Sales performance was not up to expectations: Sun
Hetkel oleks äärmiselt loogiline üks kiire ja tugev karuturu ralli, misjärel turg jällegi langusele pöörab (veidi mõõdukamas tempos, kui seni) .
Hiina automüügi ootuste kärpimine ei tohiks enam kellelegi üllatusena tulla. Via Bloomberg
Total vehicle deliveries including trucks and buses will probably rise by 3 percent this year, down from the 7 percent projected in January, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Friday. That would be the smallest increase since 2011, when the government unwound stimulus measures unleashed in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Total vehicle deliveries including trucks and buses will probably rise by 3 percent this year, down from the 7 percent projected in January, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Friday. That would be the smallest increase since 2011, when the government unwound stimulus measures unleashed in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Võimendus Hiina aktsiaturul on stabiliseerunud 1,4 triljoni jüaanile nüüd juba nädal aega
Hea artikkel FTs (China's biggest state banks recruited into stock market rescue), kus räägitakse sellest, kuidas Hiina kohalikud pangad on aktsiaturu päästmiseks appi võetud. Varasemalt pole numbrid teada olnud, kuid nüüd on mahtudele veidi valgust heidetud. Lühidalt kokkuvõttes tegutseb Hiinas 2011.a loodud China Securities Finance Corp (CSF), mis pakub maakleritele likviidust, et viimased saaksid investorite aktsiaostusid võimendada.
CSF finantseeritakse mitmel moel. Esiteks annab otselaene keskpank, siis emiteerib CSF võlakirju, mida kommertspangad ostavad ning kolmandaks annavad ka kommertspangad otselaene. Värsked andmed näitavad, et viimastel nädalatel on kommertspangad andnud CFSile otselaenusid ligi 200 miljardi dollari eest ning sellele lisaks soetanud veel võlakirju ca 130 miljardi dollari eest. Siia juurde lisanduvad veel keskpanga otselaenud, mis tähendab et aktsiaturu toetamiseks on Hiinas olemas üle 400 mld USD suurune fond. Ehkki raha tuleb erinevatest kanalitest, näib algallika taga olevat suuresti keskpank.
Still, the central bank regularly lends to commercial banks through various mechanisms, so the PBoC could have provided extra funds to support commercial banks' loans to CSF.
For the commercial banks, the burden of national service is not too onerous. Their loans to CSF carry little risk, given CSF's status as a state-owned financial institution, and the return on their loans is "pretty good", according to Caijing.
CSF finantseeritakse mitmel moel. Esiteks annab otselaene keskpank, siis emiteerib CSF võlakirju, mida kommertspangad ostavad ning kolmandaks annavad ka kommertspangad otselaene. Värsked andmed näitavad, et viimastel nädalatel on kommertspangad andnud CFSile otselaenusid ligi 200 miljardi dollari eest ning sellele lisaks soetanud veel võlakirju ca 130 miljardi dollari eest. Siia juurde lisanduvad veel keskpanga otselaenud, mis tähendab et aktsiaturu toetamiseks on Hiinas olemas üle 400 mld USD suurune fond. Ehkki raha tuleb erinevatest kanalitest, näib algallika taga olevat suuresti keskpank.
Still, the central bank regularly lends to commercial banks through various mechanisms, so the PBoC could have provided extra funds to support commercial banks' loans to CSF.
For the commercial banks, the burden of national service is not too onerous. Their loans to CSF carry little risk, given CSF's status as a state-owned financial institution, and the return on their loans is "pretty good", according to Caijing.
Hiina valitsuse ja keskpanga meetmed on aidanud aktsiaturul põhja leida, kuid kiire ralli üles tekitab küsimuse, kas sellega on loodud vundament järjekordseks spekulatiivseks ralliks, sest majanduses pole vahepeal miskit muutunud.
Bernstein: It’s true that Shanghai now trades at only 16.3x forward earnings versus 16.1x for the S&P500, for example. However, exclude financials and the Shanghai Composite is trading at 26x forward earnings. Because of the over-representation of low growth and low ROIC sectors within the Shanghai Composite (banking, industrials), it arguably should trade at a significant discount to other global indices. The “growth” parts of the Shanghai Composite are still trading at much higher multiples. If the Shanghai Composite industry weightings were identical to those of the S&P 500, Shanghai would be trading at 27x, even today.
Shanghai Composite
Bernstein: It’s true that Shanghai now trades at only 16.3x forward earnings versus 16.1x for the S&P500, for example. However, exclude financials and the Shanghai Composite is trading at 26x forward earnings. Because of the over-representation of low growth and low ROIC sectors within the Shanghai Composite (banking, industrials), it arguably should trade at a significant discount to other global indices. The “growth” parts of the Shanghai Composite are still trading at much higher multiples. If the Shanghai Composite industry weightings were identical to those of the S&P 500, Shanghai would be trading at 27x, even today.
Shanghai Composite
Teine küsimus on see, kes ostab turgu üles, sest jaeinvestorite võimendus on püsinud juba mõnda aega stabiilsena 1,4 triljoni jüaani peal
"...China's top brokers were shut in a room and ordered to hand over money for an orchestrated buying blitz. A target of 4,500 was set for the Shanghai Composite by Communist Party officials.
Caixin says the China Securities Finance Corporation - a branch of the regulator - now owns an estimated $200bn of Chinese stocks and has authority to buy a further $500bn if necessary to prop up the market."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11756858/Capital-exodus-from-China-reaches-800bn-as-crisis-deepens.html
Caixin says the China Securities Finance Corporation - a branch of the regulator - now owns an estimated $200bn of Chinese stocks and has authority to buy a further $500bn if necessary to prop up the market."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11756858/Capital-exodus-from-China-reaches-800bn-as-crisis-deepens.html
Shanghai -8,5%.
Ühesõnaga, nüüd on natuke raske teada mis toimub. Kas eraldatud tugiostude kassa sai otsa, kas vaieldakse, või kas lihtsalt tahetakse näidata turuspekulantidele, et nad midagi kindlalt oodata ei saa... Valuutakursiga ongi ka varem mängitud, aga kuna võtmesõna on alati olnud "stabiilsus" siis paneb -8,5% imestama.
Andy Xie nagu ikka räägib huvitavaid asju Hiina majandusolukorrast (enne tänast börsikrahhi).
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/4fee2a43-d530-4344-84e1-058923ba8b62
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/4fee2a43-d530-4344-84e1-058923ba8b62
Kurb vaadata, kuidas aktsiaturul mängimine võib elu peapeale pöörata
China's stock rout leaves small investors in despair
China's stock rout leaves small investors in despair
Iga kord on vist täpselt sama story.
Erko Rebane
Kurb vaadata, kuidas aktsiaturul mängimine võib elu peapeale pöörata
China's stock rout leaves small investors in despair
Paeaegu kaks kuud tagasi valitsesid veel üsna optimistlikud meeleolud. Stock craze sweeps rural China
Credit Suisse'i andmetel aitas tänu aktsiaturu rallile paranenud finantssektori kasv Hiina majandusele olulise taganttõuke anda ning pelgalt turu stabiliseerumine võib tuleval aastal majanduse momentumit vähendada.
In the first half this year, China reported 7% GDP growth. The vibrant financials sector, which represented only 8.9% of the total Chinese economy, grew a brisk 17.4%. As a result, the financials contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total 7 percentage points growth. “If the sector’s growth is at a moderate level of around 10.4% (the average level from 1Q11 onwards), the GDP growth in 1H15 will only be 6.4%, significantly lower than the government target,” wrote Chan.
In the first half this year, China reported 7% GDP growth. The vibrant financials sector, which represented only 8.9% of the total Chinese economy, grew a brisk 17.4%. As a result, the financials contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total 7 percentage points growth. “If the sector’s growth is at a moderate level of around 10.4% (the average level from 1Q11 onwards), the GDP growth in 1H15 will only be 6.4%, significantly lower than the government target,” wrote Chan.
Credit Suisse on kokku pannud hea graafiku, kust näeb ära võimenduse suuremat rolli Hiina aktsiaturu juhtimisel võrreldes teiste riikidega
Paar päeva vana uudis, aga Hiina plaanib infrastruktuuri ehitusse pumbata 161 miljardit dollarit, tõenäoliselt ühe eesmärgiga hoida majanduskasvu ikkagi 7% juures
China Just Revamped its Stimulus Playbook in a Bid to Boost Growth
China Just Revamped its Stimulus Playbook in a Bid to Boost Growth