href="http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/DJ1800Inf.gif">Kui teil on probleeme karuks olemisega:)
Kustutage ära, link eile töötas, täna mitte.
Irving Fisher was Right. Lugemist sellest, kuidas aasta 1929 crashi eelses tipus olid aktsiad sootuks odavad.
Minult hetkel USA turu suhtes lähikuudeks NEUTRAALNE (vist üldse esimest korda!?) hoiak.
Minult hetkel USA turu suhtes lähikuudeks NEUTRAALNE (vist üldse esimest korda!?) hoiak.
mis otsuseid siis selle uurimuse baasilt teha võiks? kui ma oleks investor, kes 1929 aastal languse peale mängides varanduse kokku ajas, ning hiljem selguks, et mul polnud "Õigus", oleks mul siiski sügavalt pohhui. eelistan raha fundamentaalsele õigustatusele. kristjan, mida su hoiak neutraalne tähendab? kas hoiad turust eemale või mis?
Osama:
S&P ja Dow tunduvad juba liiga kiiret majanduslikku taastumist ootavat, NAZ on harjumuspäraselt veel rohkem pilvedes, aga mis seal ikka. Kui ENE taolised asjad praktiliselt no-event on ja teoreetiliselt aktsiaturgu suunduvat (rahapkkumist arvestades lausa sunnitavat) raha detsembriks-jaanuariks peaks jaguma, pole mingit tahtmist ka lühikeseks minna (peale õnnemängu taolist panust mõne suurema ettenägematu sündmuse toimumiseks). Kui Jaapani reitingut veel juhtumisi alla tõmmatakse on pensionifondide näol USD'i/s ostjaid tavapärasest oluliselt rohkem ja ka see sündmus võiks kokkuvõttes USA turge toetada.
Fundamentaalselt indekseid praeguselt tasemelt osta ma ei soovita ja shortimine tundub riskantne = NEUTRAALNE hoiak. See ei tähenda, et aktsiaturust peaks kõrvale hoidma! Indeksites pikk võib positsioonile calle müüa vms. strateegiad.
S&P ja Dow tunduvad juba liiga kiiret majanduslikku taastumist ootavat, NAZ on harjumuspäraselt veel rohkem pilvedes, aga mis seal ikka. Kui ENE taolised asjad praktiliselt no-event on ja teoreetiliselt aktsiaturgu suunduvat (rahapkkumist arvestades lausa sunnitavat) raha detsembriks-jaanuariks peaks jaguma, pole mingit tahtmist ka lühikeseks minna (peale õnnemängu taolist panust mõne suurema ettenägematu sündmuse toimumiseks). Kui Jaapani reitingut veel juhtumisi alla tõmmatakse on pensionifondide näol USD'i/s ostjaid tavapärasest oluliselt rohkem ja ka see sündmus võiks kokkuvõttes USA turge toetada.
Fundamentaalselt indekseid praeguselt tasemelt osta ma ei soovita ja shortimine tundub riskantne = NEUTRAALNE hoiak. See ei tähenda, et aktsiaturust peaks kõrvale hoidma! Indeksites pikk võib positsioonile calle müüa vms. strateegiad.
võib siis nii tõlgendada, et hoiak selline, et usa indeksid ei tohiks kuskile suunas oluliselt muutuda?
Paari lähikuu kokkuvõttes jah. NASDAQ'l paarsada punkti sellel ajal sinna-tänna vänderdada ei takista muidugi miski. Varasemad NAZ prognoosid
kristjan,
kui pika horisondiga sa üldiselt prognoose teed : nädal , kuu, aasta
ja mis on Sinu arust peamine turumõjur poole aasta perspektiivis e. millest oleneb suund enim?
kui pika horisondiga sa üldiselt prognoose teed : nädal , kuu, aasta
ja mis on Sinu arust peamine turumõjur poole aasta perspektiivis e. millest oleneb suund enim?
Anname kord Q välja oma pikema prognoosi. Eelmine on näiteks siin. Vahepealseid arvamusi kirjutame vastavalt olukorrale ja olen neid repliigi korras tavaliselt ka siia foorumitesse riputanud.
Liikumine poole aasta perspektiivis sõltub (nagu alati) ootustest ja nende täitumisest. Aga selle arvamusega pole Sul küll midagi peale hakata. :-)
Minu 10 a. prognoos: USA blue-chip indeksite tootlus jääb alla ajaloolisele keskmisele. NAZ madalaimad tasemed 900-1200.
Liikumine poole aasta perspektiivis sõltub (nagu alati) ootustest ja nende täitumisest. Aga selle arvamusega pole Sul küll midagi peale hakata. :-)
Minu 10 a. prognoos: USA blue-chip indeksite tootlus jääb alla ajaloolisele keskmisele. NAZ madalaimad tasemed 900-1200.
USA-s P/E näitajad ikka kõrged, aga aktsiaid ikka tõusevad, kaua võib
| Company | Current-Year Estimate | Fiscal '03 Consensus | Earnings Needed for P/E of 30 |
| Altera (ALTR:Nasdaq) | $0.20 | $0.43 | $0.66 |
| Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq) | -0.29 | 0.27 | 1.23 |
| Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq)* | -0.28 | 0.15 | 0.47 |
| Conexant Systems (CNXT:Nasdaq) | -1.37 | -0.29 | 0.43 |
| Cisco Systems (CSCO:Nasdaq)* | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| JDS Uniphase (JDSU:Nasdaq)* | -0.03 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Mercury Interactive (MERQ:Nasdaq) | 0.54 | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| PMC-Sierra (PMCS:Nasdaq) | -0.37 | 0.25 | 0.61 |
| Peoplesoft (PSFT:Nasdaq) | 0.66 | 0.94 | 1.33 |
| Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq) | 0.41 | 0.62 | 0.94 |
| Teradyne (TER:Nasdaq) | -1.36 | 0.34 | 0.94 |
| Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) | -0.12 | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| Veritas Software (VRTS:Nasdaq) | 0.58 | 0.77 | 1.39 |
| Vitesse Semiconducter (VTSS:Nasdaq)* | -0.40 | -0.20 | 0.37 |
| Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.54 |
The Street'ist
Nii, P/E on üks peamine indikaator, mille abil prognoositakse hinnataseme langust USA-s.
Leidsin huvitava lehekülje ilusa ajaloolise p/e graafikuga
http://www.lowrisk.com/sp500pe.htm
http://www.lowrisk.com/dividends.htm
Leidsin huvitava lehekülje ilusa ajaloolise p/e graafikuga
http://www.lowrisk.com/sp500pe.htm
http://www.lowrisk.com/dividends.htm
July 1932: P/E of 9.35, bond yield 3.2%
-- March 1938: P/E of 10.62, yield 2.64%
-- April 1942: 7.93 and 2.44%
-- May 1962: 18.32 and 3.87%
-- Sept. 1966: 14.12 and 5.18%
-- June 1970: 13.69 and 7.84%
-- Dec. 1974: 7.54 and 7.43%
-- July 1982: p/e 7.83, bond yield 7.83%
-- Oct. 1990: p/e 14.21, bond yield 8.72%
-- Sept. 1998: p/e 24.29, bond yield 4.81%
-- current: P/E 34.5, bond yields 4.22% (Barrons)
Stocks Seen Lagging Bonds over 20 Years
By Dena Aubin
NEW YORK (Reuters) - More good news for Americans who have rediscovered bonds: there is just a 42 percent probability that stocks will beat bonds' performance over the next 20 years, according to a new study.
Corporate bonds are especially cheap compared with stocks, according to the report from Deutsche Bank researchers. The probability that U.S. stocks will outperform corporate bonds over the next 20 years is just 23 percent, the firm said.
Over the next decade, "equities will be viewed as a high-risk, low-return investment, and we should see significant shifts from equities to fixed-income positions," Deutsche Bank said.
Deutsche's findings echo those of powerful bond fund manager Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Co. Gross said last week that bonds will be the best-performing asset class for "years to come," and that 5000 is a fair level for the Dow Jones industrial average.
Their conclusions stand in contrast to the view of many financial planners, who believe that over long periods of time, stocks outperform other asset classes.
STOCK FUNDS LOSE RECORD SUMS
"Interest rates on bonds are at historical lows now," said New York-based investment advisor Lou Altfest. "Any increase in government spending could lead, perhaps intentionally, to higher inflation, which would hurt bonds."
Many stock investors already are throwing in the towel as the bear market mauls their portfolios.
Investors pulled a net $52.6 billion from equity mutual funds in July, the most ever, according to the Investment Company Institute. Bond funds took in a net $28.1 billion in July, also a record.
Twenty years ago, U.S. equities had a 94 percent probability of outperforming bonds, Deutsche Bank said. Falling inflation and interest rates, the end of the cold war, baby-boomers' investments in stocks, and stock market-friendly fiscal and monetary policies all helped boost stocks, but none of those factors is likely to be repeated, the firm said.
Stocks have fallen hard this year, but not enough to be fairly priced for risks, Deutsche Bank said. "In our view, more pain is to be expected for equity investors, and more riches for their bond counterparts."
RETURNS TOO SKIMPY FOR RISKS?
Both Gross and Deutsche Bank base their arguments in part on risk premiums, or the compensation investors receive for the risk of owning stocks. The risk premium, in simplest terms, is the excess returns that stocks are expected to deliver over yields on inflation-adjusted Treasuries.
"At 2 percent, the equity risk premium on the Standard & Poor's 500 is significantly below its 40-year historical average of 3.4 percent," Deutsche Bank said.
Equity risk premiums have risen just 0.80 percentage point this year, a small adjustment considering the gloomier outlook for the U.S. economy, weaker profits, accounting problems and global political risks, it said.
Low dividend yields also point to lower total returns on stocks, the firm said. Dividend yields on stocks are now just 1.66 percent on average, well below their 50-year average of 3.5 percent, it said.
Deutsche's study is an update of a report it published in January. It took a new look at the data because both the bond and stock markets have re-priced since then. Its original conclusions have not changed, researchers said.
"Government bonds and corporate bonds remain attractive relative to equities," the firm said.
By Dena Aubin
NEW YORK (Reuters) - More good news for Americans who have rediscovered bonds: there is just a 42 percent probability that stocks will beat bonds' performance over the next 20 years, according to a new study.
Corporate bonds are especially cheap compared with stocks, according to the report from Deutsche Bank researchers. The probability that U.S. stocks will outperform corporate bonds over the next 20 years is just 23 percent, the firm said.
Over the next decade, "equities will be viewed as a high-risk, low-return investment, and we should see significant shifts from equities to fixed-income positions," Deutsche Bank said.
Deutsche's findings echo those of powerful bond fund manager Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Co. Gross said last week that bonds will be the best-performing asset class for "years to come," and that 5000 is a fair level for the Dow Jones industrial average.
Their conclusions stand in contrast to the view of many financial planners, who believe that over long periods of time, stocks outperform other asset classes.
STOCK FUNDS LOSE RECORD SUMS
"Interest rates on bonds are at historical lows now," said New York-based investment advisor Lou Altfest. "Any increase in government spending could lead, perhaps intentionally, to higher inflation, which would hurt bonds."
Many stock investors already are throwing in the towel as the bear market mauls their portfolios.
Investors pulled a net $52.6 billion from equity mutual funds in July, the most ever, according to the Investment Company Institute. Bond funds took in a net $28.1 billion in July, also a record.
Twenty years ago, U.S. equities had a 94 percent probability of outperforming bonds, Deutsche Bank said. Falling inflation and interest rates, the end of the cold war, baby-boomers' investments in stocks, and stock market-friendly fiscal and monetary policies all helped boost stocks, but none of those factors is likely to be repeated, the firm said.
Stocks have fallen hard this year, but not enough to be fairly priced for risks, Deutsche Bank said. "In our view, more pain is to be expected for equity investors, and more riches for their bond counterparts."
RETURNS TOO SKIMPY FOR RISKS?
Both Gross and Deutsche Bank base their arguments in part on risk premiums, or the compensation investors receive for the risk of owning stocks. The risk premium, in simplest terms, is the excess returns that stocks are expected to deliver over yields on inflation-adjusted Treasuries.
"At 2 percent, the equity risk premium on the Standard & Poor's 500 is significantly below its 40-year historical average of 3.4 percent," Deutsche Bank said.
Equity risk premiums have risen just 0.80 percentage point this year, a small adjustment considering the gloomier outlook for the U.S. economy, weaker profits, accounting problems and global political risks, it said.
Low dividend yields also point to lower total returns on stocks, the firm said. Dividend yields on stocks are now just 1.66 percent on average, well below their 50-year average of 3.5 percent, it said.
Deutsche's study is an update of a report it published in January. It took a new look at the data because both the bond and stock markets have re-priced since then. Its original conclusions have not changed, researchers said.
"Government bonds and corporate bonds remain attractive relative to equities," the firm said.
Kas tuleb ja millal:
Kasvumääraga (Growth Rate) võrdlemine
tuleb...
Sektori ja turu P/E suhtarvuga võrdlemine
tuleb...
Kasvumääraga (Growth Rate) võrdlemine
tuleb...
Sektori ja turu P/E suhtarvuga võrdlemine
tuleb...
Kasv on kasulik siis, kui iga lisanduv üksus annab oma osa kasumi kasvule.