Madis, savi nendest price targetitest. Need on ainult numbrid. Loeb see, kuidas analüütik suudab leida selliseid asju, mida turg veel ei tea. Selles osas on Baird päris mitu korda olnud kõige esimene ja teised on tagantjärgi ainult takka kaagutanud.
Saksamaa DAX +0.39%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.40%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.34%
Hispaania IBEX -0.43%
Venemaa MICEX +0.90%
Poola WIG -1.74%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.13%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.10%
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India Sensex -3.25%
Near the Tipping Point
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/9/2008 8:29 AM EDT
The moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point ... a place where the unexpected becomes expected, where radical change is more than possibility.
-- Definition of "tipping point," in Malcolm Gladwell's book The Tipping Point
A huge spike in crude oil prices along with a surge in the unemployment rate on Friday has raised concerns that the economy and market are now at a "tipping point." For the last couple of months, the market has been dealing quite well with the bad debt issue, housing problems and a slowing economy. Many have been willing to embrace the idea that that the worst is behind us and that we are going to see steady improvement from here.
The action on Friday is causing some re-evaluation of that optimism. The popular press was littered this weekend with stories about the problem with oil and gasoline, and suddenly a whole range of issues that had been relegated to the back burner are now taking on new life.
The issues here aren't anything very mysterious. High oil and gasoline prices bring the dirty little secret of inflation to the forefront and also cause concerns about how the high prices will serve as a tax on a supporting economy. With unemployment increasing and inflation occurring in other areas such as commodities, the big concern is that we now have the conditions in place for another leg down in a bear market.
The market has been playing out in a very classic way. After melting down due to the bad debt issue, hope was regained and we rallied steadily over the last few months. More and more investors were slowly induced to believe that the worst was over -- while we might struggle a bit, things are going to be pretty good now. Confidence and optimism have been slowly restored, and the fear has shifted from losing money to being left out.
The oil and unemployment spike that hit on Friday calls into question the optimism that has been building. Doubts suddenly resurface, and the technical conditions of the indices become more negative.
The first reaction of many is to dismiss this sudden turn as just a hiccup in our continued recovery and not a complete change in direction. But that is what we need to focus on. We can't just dismiss this as nothing when the seeds for another down leg are in place. We have to take defensive action and be extremely careful, because protecting capital from another bear-market drop is far more important than the potential profits in case the market can overcome this new deluge of negatives.
I know this post sounds particularly negative, but my point is a simple one: Something significant happened Friday with the spike in oil and unemployment. That has created conditions that seem to favor more selling. It might not occur, but it is far better that we be defensive than hold onto hope that it is just some short-term aberration that will be soon forgotten.
Be careful out there.
------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: XIDE +4.9%, MCD +2.7%, RIMG +2.6% (light volume)... M&A news: HRH +40.0% (Willis Group to acquire HRH for $46 per share), CPWM +30.8% (PIR proposes to acquire CPWM for $4.00/share),TWTI +5.8% (to be acquired by Hologic for $11.25/share)... European oil/gas names showing strength despite a pullback in crude prices: E +2.7%, STO +2.7%, BP +2.3%, RDS.A +2.1%, TOT +1.6%... Other news: QLTI +10.5% (Allergan announces agreement to acquire Aczone Gel 5% for ~$150 mln from co), CIT +9.9% (announces $3 bln long-term committed financing facility with Goldman Sachs), XOMA +9.0% (announced that a study of XOMA 052 in a mouse model of rheumatoid arthritis demonstrated that XOMA 052 significantly reduced the bone and cartilage destruction), VRTX +8.6% (reports 52% SVR 12 rate for a 24-week Telaprevir-based regimen in genotype 1 hepatitis C patients who failed prior treatment), HEV +8.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VSE +6.8% (mentioned positively in Barron's), HOKU +6.8% (Young Brothers announces agreement to purchase clean solar energy from Hoku Solar), PEIX +6.7% (mentioned positively in Barron's), IART +2.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SI +2.8% (profit to grow next year, finance chief says - Bloomberg.com), NOK +2.2% (still checking), POT +1.9% (Goldman Sachs raises POT tgt to $285 from $235 - Reuters), TS +1.5% (still checking), CPRT +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: MOS +2.0% (added to Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy List - DJ), MVSN +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Piper).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LEH -7.7% (preannounces Q2 loss of $5.14 per share, announces it intends to raise $6.0 bln in capital; Moody's subsequently changes Lehman rating outlook to negative), ICON -3.4%... Select European financials trading lower following weakness in overseas: RBS -3.8% (gets 95% take-up for rights issue - NY Times), UBS -3.0%, RMBS -2.9% (FTC asks appeals court to reconsider Rambus antitrust ruling - Bloomberg.com),BCS -1.9%, DB -1.8%, CS -1.7%... Other news: ROYL -11.8% (announces agreement for $4 million placement), FPP -9.0% (modestly pulling back after last week's 29% surge higher), TASR -7.5% (jury finds extended TASR device application 15% responsible for arrest-related death; awarded $1.021 mln in compensatory damages and $5.2 mln in punitive damages against TASER), XL -2.0% (S&P cuts XL Capital Assurance and XL Fin Assurance To 'BBB-'), VOD -2.0% (still checking), LEN -1.5% (Calpers joint venture LandSource files for bankruptcy - Bloomberg.com), CSUN -1.3% (files for a $300 mln mixed shelf offering)... Analyst downgrades: AMLN -8.1% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), TKLC -4.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/9/2008 8:29 AM EDT
The moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point ... a place where the unexpected becomes expected, where radical change is more than possibility.
-- Definition of "tipping point," in Malcolm Gladwell's book The Tipping Point
A huge spike in crude oil prices along with a surge in the unemployment rate on Friday has raised concerns that the economy and market are now at a "tipping point." For the last couple of months, the market has been dealing quite well with the bad debt issue, housing problems and a slowing economy. Many have been willing to embrace the idea that that the worst is behind us and that we are going to see steady improvement from here.
The action on Friday is causing some re-evaluation of that optimism. The popular press was littered this weekend with stories about the problem with oil and gasoline, and suddenly a whole range of issues that had been relegated to the back burner are now taking on new life.
The issues here aren't anything very mysterious. High oil and gasoline prices bring the dirty little secret of inflation to the forefront and also cause concerns about how the high prices will serve as a tax on a supporting economy. With unemployment increasing and inflation occurring in other areas such as commodities, the big concern is that we now have the conditions in place for another leg down in a bear market.
The market has been playing out in a very classic way. After melting down due to the bad debt issue, hope was regained and we rallied steadily over the last few months. More and more investors were slowly induced to believe that the worst was over -- while we might struggle a bit, things are going to be pretty good now. Confidence and optimism have been slowly restored, and the fear has shifted from losing money to being left out.
The oil and unemployment spike that hit on Friday calls into question the optimism that has been building. Doubts suddenly resurface, and the technical conditions of the indices become more negative.
The first reaction of many is to dismiss this sudden turn as just a hiccup in our continued recovery and not a complete change in direction. But that is what we need to focus on. We can't just dismiss this as nothing when the seeds for another down leg are in place. We have to take defensive action and be extremely careful, because protecting capital from another bear-market drop is far more important than the potential profits in case the market can overcome this new deluge of negatives.
I know this post sounds particularly negative, but my point is a simple one: Something significant happened Friday with the spike in oil and unemployment. That has created conditions that seem to favor more selling. It might not occur, but it is far better that we be defensive than hold onto hope that it is just some short-term aberration that will be soon forgotten.
Be careful out there.
------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: XIDE +4.9%, MCD +2.7%, RIMG +2.6% (light volume)... M&A news: HRH +40.0% (Willis Group to acquire HRH for $46 per share), CPWM +30.8% (PIR proposes to acquire CPWM for $4.00/share),TWTI +5.8% (to be acquired by Hologic for $11.25/share)... European oil/gas names showing strength despite a pullback in crude prices: E +2.7%, STO +2.7%, BP +2.3%, RDS.A +2.1%, TOT +1.6%... Other news: QLTI +10.5% (Allergan announces agreement to acquire Aczone Gel 5% for ~$150 mln from co), CIT +9.9% (announces $3 bln long-term committed financing facility with Goldman Sachs), XOMA +9.0% (announced that a study of XOMA 052 in a mouse model of rheumatoid arthritis demonstrated that XOMA 052 significantly reduced the bone and cartilage destruction), VRTX +8.6% (reports 52% SVR 12 rate for a 24-week Telaprevir-based regimen in genotype 1 hepatitis C patients who failed prior treatment), HEV +8.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VSE +6.8% (mentioned positively in Barron's), HOKU +6.8% (Young Brothers announces agreement to purchase clean solar energy from Hoku Solar), PEIX +6.7% (mentioned positively in Barron's), IART +2.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SI +2.8% (profit to grow next year, finance chief says - Bloomberg.com), NOK +2.2% (still checking), POT +1.9% (Goldman Sachs raises POT tgt to $285 from $235 - Reuters), TS +1.5% (still checking), CPRT +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: MOS +2.0% (added to Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy List - DJ), MVSN +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Piper).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LEH -7.7% (preannounces Q2 loss of $5.14 per share, announces it intends to raise $6.0 bln in capital; Moody's subsequently changes Lehman rating outlook to negative), ICON -3.4%... Select European financials trading lower following weakness in overseas: RBS -3.8% (gets 95% take-up for rights issue - NY Times), UBS -3.0%, RMBS -2.9% (FTC asks appeals court to reconsider Rambus antitrust ruling - Bloomberg.com),BCS -1.9%, DB -1.8%, CS -1.7%... Other news: ROYL -11.8% (announces agreement for $4 million placement), FPP -9.0% (modestly pulling back after last week's 29% surge higher), TASR -7.5% (jury finds extended TASR device application 15% responsible for arrest-related death; awarded $1.021 mln in compensatory damages and $5.2 mln in punitive damages against TASER), XL -2.0% (S&P cuts XL Capital Assurance and XL Fin Assurance To 'BBB-'), VOD -2.0% (still checking), LEN -1.5% (Calpers joint venture LandSource files for bankruptcy - Bloomberg.com), CSUN -1.3% (files for a $300 mln mixed shelf offering)... Analyst downgrades: AMLN -8.1% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), TKLC -4.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank).
FirstFed Financial (FED), mida aprilli alguses sai pikaajalise shordina välja pakutud, on tollase $26 pealt kukkunud $15-ni. Seeking Aplhas toob üks blogija välja veel 9 põhjust, miks aktsia peaks edasi kukkuma. Kuigi uudisväärtust pole neil lõikudel enam ammu, on kõik põhjused adekvaatsed ning võivad mingil hetkel päris kurvalt kulmineeruda.
Ei leidnud sobivat kohta kuhu küsimus esitada. Kas siin viga ei ole, et 23.06 kuupäev puudub? "Tallinna Börs on avatud E-R 10:00-14:00 ning suletud 24. juuni, 20. august, 24.-26. detsember, 31. detsember." Läti ja Leedu turud on 23-24.06 suletud. Ega Tallinna börs lahti ei saa olla 23.06, see ju riigipüha?
Valero (VLO) keskmine oli 46.58. Umbes 80% positsioonist õnnestus maha laadida 46.80+ eelturul ja ülejäänud läks 10 sendise kahjumiga avanemisel. Jätsin positsiooni reedel lahti lootuses, et nafta tuleb alla ja tuligi.
lahtised otsad seega kinni.
lahtised otsad seega kinni.
Tänud kaido75, siin on tõesti viga sees, kauplemist Tallinnas samuti 23.06 ei toimu.
April Pending Home Sales +6.3% vs -0.4% consensus, prior -1.0%
Kas ma saan õigesti aru, et ka Google finance on alustanud Yahoo eekujul realtime data edastamist? Vahva asi see konkurents.
2-Jun-08 07:33 ET In Play NASDAQ announces free real-time market data service (35.03 ) : Co announced that it has launched a new service that places free real-time market data in the hands of millions of individual investors. With "NASDAQ Last Sale," NASDAQ becomes the first U.S. stock exchange to facilitate universal, free access to real-time stock quotes -- or the last quoted price -- together with CNBC, Google (GOOG), The Wall Street Journal Digital Network and Xignite.
Jaah, ka googlefinance on real-time hinnainfo üles saanud. Kuigi mitte päris kõige kohta. Börsil kaubeldava fondi SPY puhul antakse siiski delayed quote.
Oodatav tulemuste ajakava finantssektorist siis.
Lehmann tegi täna otsa lahti ja mitte just kõige roosilisemate nootidega.
LEH – 09.06 (e)
GS – 17.06 (e)
MS – 18.06 (e)
WFC – 15.07.08 (e)
JPM – 16.07 (e)
MER – 17.07 (e)
WM – 17.07.08 (p)
C – 18.07 (e)
BAC – 21.07 (e)
WB – 22.07.08 (e)
CFC – 24.07.08 (e)
Lehmann tegi täna otsa lahti ja mitte just kõige roosilisemate nootidega.
LEH – 09.06 (e)
GS – 17.06 (e)
MS – 18.06 (e)
WFC – 15.07.08 (e)
JPM – 16.07 (e)
MER – 17.07 (e)
WM – 17.07.08 (p)
C – 18.07 (e)
BAC – 21.07 (e)
WB – 22.07.08 (e)
CFC – 24.07.08 (e)
FMD üritab ülespoole liikuda. Ei tea kas on mingeid märke securitization turu taastumisest, mida kõik turuosalised veel ei tea (või näha ei osk)?
Lehman-LEH CFO says raising capital is designed to end the chatter about LEH.
eem, sick?
eem, sick?
ECB says may see further write-downs from large banks - DJ
Enek solvus nüüd või?
Moody`s langetas KB Homes (KBH) reitingut, mis mõjutab otseselt $2.2 miljardi väärtuses võlakirju.
...mis ei mõjutanud stocki absoluutselt...
KBH aktsia on kergest +0.2% tõusust jõudnud -0.8% langusesse ning langeb edasi.
NY Fed President Geithner says 17 major financial institutions to meet this afternoon at NY Fed to discuss major changes to derivative infrastructure; to establish clearing firm for CDS
Fed's Geithner urges stronger oversight of OTC payments systems
Fed's Geithner says liquidity facilities have eased strains, will keep till conditions improve substantially
Fed's Geithner says not realistic to preemptively diffuse pockets of risk and leverage
Geithner says U.S. regulatory structure needs substantial reform from current confusing mix
Fed's Geithner urges stronger oversight of OTC payments systems
Fed's Geithner says liquidity facilities have eased strains, will keep till conditions improve substantially
Fed's Geithner says not realistic to preemptively diffuse pockets of risk and leverage
Geithner says U.S. regulatory structure needs substantial reform from current confusing mix