Novelluse (NVLS) tulemused ja prognoosid ei olnud piisavalt roosilised. Aktsia täna hommikul eelturul -4%. Siiski, peale viimaste nädalate kukkumist peaksid ootused olema päris madalad. Eks näeb, mis turg avanemisel teeb.
sB
Täitsa korralikud tulemused ja prognoosid NVLS poolt, oleks pigem oodanud plussi. Kuid eks turg ole viimaste nädalatega tunduvalt närvilisemaks läinud.
Kuigi tehniline pilt on praegu turul kole, lõhnab veidi selle järgi, et majandustulemuste hooaja jätkudes (ehk järgmine nädal) hakatakse juba ka keskpäraste tulemuste peale ostma.
Kuigi tehniline pilt on praegu turul kole, lõhnab veidi selle järgi, et majandustulemuste hooaja jätkudes (ehk järgmine nädal) hakatakse juba ka keskpäraste tulemuste peale ostma.
Nad said patenditeemalise kaotuse kohtus, siit siis arvatavasti löök allapoole vööd.
Rev Shark:
Adept Trading Required for Success in This Market
7/12/04 8:42 AM ET
"Sometimes I pause and sadly think of all the things that might have been. Of all the golden chances I let slip by, And which never returned again. It fills me with gloom when I ponder this, Till I look on the other side. How I might have been completely engulfed by misfortune's surging tide."
-- G. J. Russell
A rising tide of gloomy developments is keeping the pressure on the market as we enter earnings season. The primary bad news we have had so far is the very high level of negative earnings preannouncements compared to positive ones. According to Thomson First Call, which was quoted in Barron's this weekend, out of 220 preannouncements for the second quarter, 82 were negative and 97 were positive, which yields a ratio of 0.85. That's the lowest number that has been recorded since records have been kept, and is dramatically lower than the historic level of 2.2.
To add to that already gloomy picture, Merrill Lynch is kicking off the week with a dramatic downgrade of the semiconductor industry to underweight from overweight. That includes a downgrade of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) to neutral from buy, even though they expect an in-line report on Tuesday. They have also downgraded a whole slew of other companies in the group.
The market has been plagued by a dearth of positive news in recent weeks. The lack of good news isn't always bad if -- and this is a big "if" -- it is fully priced in already. The impact of bad news is limited when it's expected and has already been priced in by the market. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case in the current market environment.
Recent investor sentiment polls have continued to show surprisingly high levels of bullishness, despite soft price action in the market. The bulls have not been shaken out so far, even though the market has been struggling, and that is a major negative.
The technical picture of all the major indices remains quite troubling. They all took out important support levels last week and are struggling to hold on to the next important level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, is sitting right on its 200-day simple moving average of 10,182 and looks like it could easily test the 10,000 level once again should that fail.
The good news is that expectations going into earnings season are very low, and Merrill Lynch lowered some of them even further this morning. The semiconductor group has been under pressure since January, and this dramatic downgrade by Merrill is the sort of thing that often leads to bottoming action.
Despite the high level of earnings warnings we have seen so far, it is very likely that there are going to be some exceptional reports out there as well. Deft stock-picking and trading will be rewarded during earnings season, but it won't be an easy task. The nice thing about earnings season is that it helps produce a new crop of interesting trade candidates that have not been noticed previously.
We have two full days of trading before the first major earnings reports are issued on Tuesday night. The tone right now is very negative, and that is a good setup for a quick upside rally or two. The news flow has been so consistently bad that we are due for some sort of relief soon, but stay aware that the longer-term technical picture is looking very weak. In this market, it is going to take some adept trading in order to prosper.
We have a negative open shaping up, primarily due to the Merrill downgrade. Overseas markets were mixed with chip stocks supplying most of the downside pressure. Gold is trading up to the $408 level, the dollar is down and oil is close to flat.
Gapping Down
NVLS -4% (reports Q2), AMAT -2.5% (in sympathy with NVLS), CENT -15% (guides lower), ELAB -9% (ThinkEquity downgrade), EFII -5% (UBS downgrade), CTSH -4% (negative Barron's story).
Gapping Up
BNSO +19% (reports Q4), CALM +12% (reports MayQ), SCUR +11% (CGFW offers to buy co), CZN +8% (CEO to resign, co plans $2 special dividend, and $1 annual dividend), CTIC +7% (receives fast track designation for pixantrone), AIRT +6% (continues last week's momentum).... Under $3: WGAT +15% (receives $5 mln Motorola order), SQNM +13% (announces new technology for fetal genetic mutations), BIOM +10% (co and Phenomenome Discoveries sign collaboration agreement), TMWD +4%.
NVLS -4% (reports Q2), AMAT -2.5% (in sympathy with NVLS), CENT -15% (guides lower), ELAB -9% (ThinkEquity downgrade), EFII -5% (UBS downgrade), CTSH -4% (negative Barron's story).
Gapping Up
BNSO +19% (reports Q4), CALM +12% (reports MayQ), SCUR +11% (CGFW offers to buy co), CZN +8% (CEO to resign, co plans $2 special dividend, and $1 annual dividend), CTIC +7% (receives fast track designation for pixantrone), AIRT +6% (continues last week's momentum).... Under $3: WGAT +15% (receives $5 mln Motorola order), SQNM +13% (announces new technology for fetal genetic mutations), BIOM +10% (co and Phenomenome Discoveries sign collaboration agreement), TMWD +4%.
EPICu shortijatele teadmiseks, $11.26 pealt panin nagu lubatud pool positsiooni kinni.
Turg on kiire ralli teinud
Ilmselt shortide katmine.
Ma usun, et see nädal tehakse veel korralikum ralliüritus, shortijad on kiiresti julgust kogunud ning seda julgust ilmselt kasutakse üheks "grande short squeeze'ks" ära.
Ma usun, et see nädal tehakse veel korralikum ralliüritus, shortijad on kiiresti julgust kogunud ning seda julgust ilmselt kasutakse üheks "grande short squeeze'ks" ära.