Nelli Janson Morgan Stanley muudab täna oma visiooni Tesla Motors (TSLA) osas .... (1) rapid commercialization of advanced ICE technology, (2) disappointing volumes for newly launched EVs in 2011, (3) lower fuel prices and (4) a poor European economy.
Mõned tähelepanekud: 1) kui poleks euroopa võlakriisi, peaks mingi muu rahvusvahelise vandenõu väljamõtlema, näiteks Illuminatide kokkumäng reptiloididega dominantsi saavutamiseks valuutapositsioonides :) 2) praeguseks hetkeks pole ühtegi toimivat ja rahuldavat ICE lahendust, rääkimata range extender lahendust, mis rahuldaks tarnijaid üle maailma. 3) november 2011 seisuga on müüdud üle 20 000 Nissan LEAF EV-d ja 12 000 GM Volt masinat. 4) maailmas ainus domimeeriv ja väga laialdast kasutust leidev EV tehnoloogia on sama, mida kasutatakse LEAF peal. Nissan ei tegele selle aktiivse arendamisega v.a. akude kestvus. Näiteks Pivo3 kontaeptsioon urban EV kontaeptsiooni puhul rõhutakse eranditult disainile, aga üldse ei räägita EV tehnoloogiast. 5) Fisker Karma sai oma GM EURO4 räpase mootoriga väga head TÜV CO2/km näitajad, mis peaksid Fisker Nina (järgmine mudel) veelgi paeanema BMW EURO5 nõutele vastava ICE range extender'iga. 6) Tesla on praegu absoluuselt parima long range pure EV tehnoloogia valdaja ning temal puudub konkurent. 7) Audi katsed vankelmootoriga EV range extender lahendust lahendada on suure gambiidiga üritus, kuna vankelmootori CO2/km näitajad pole paremad kui ICE omad. Ka on seal enneolematult keerulised tehnilised probleemid.
Gapping down In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: THQI -14.4% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray on uDraw shortfall, downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest), SAVE -4.3%, COST -1.9%.
Other news: ALXA -34.3% (Briefing docs for 12/12 Advisory Committee on Adasuve posted on FDA site), AMR -10.7% (modestly pulling back from this week's surge higher), CLWR -7.9% (upsizes public offering by $50 mln and prices 175 mln shares of common stock at $2.00 per share), HNR -7.6% (updates drilling operations in Qarn Alam Block 64, Oman; operations on the MFS-1 well progressed ahead of schedule), WFR -3.1% (Announces Global Restructuring by reducing co's global workforce, right sizing its production capacity, and accelerating operating cost reductions in 2012 and beyond), EPD -2.7% (announced the commencement of a public offering of 9 mln common units representing limited partner interests in the partnership), ARR -2.4% (announced an 8 mln share common stock offering), BP -1.2% (BP hit with more citations regarding Gulf oil spill, according to reports).
Analyst comments: TSLA -8.3% (downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), CREE -2.2% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), SNH -1.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities), RIG -1.3% (resumed with a Sell at Goldman).
Gapping up In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PSUN +35.6% (also announces the completion of extensive negotiations with landlords that will result in the closure of ~175-200 underperforming stores), GIII +21.8% (also announces license for development of Calvin Klein Women's performance retail stores), MCD +1.4%, ENB +0.5%.
A few European drug names are trading modetly higher: AZN +1.4%, GSK +1.4%
Other news: AFFY +25.4% (reports FDA Advisory Committee voted in favor of Benefit/Risk Profile for Peginesatide for treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease patients on dialysis), AIS +15.8% (Antares Pharma Oxybutynin gel product approved by FDA for the treatment of overactive bladder), CJES +6.8% (still checking, thinly traded), EQT +3.2% (announced the company's 2012 CAPEX forecast of $1.6 bln; Sales of produced natural gas in 2012 are projected at between 255 and 260 Bcfe, ~32% higher than the 2011), VVUS +2.6% (ticking higher, SEQUEL trial results for Qnexa Published in AJCN show 10% sustained weight loss over 2 years), BA +2% (Boeing and Air Lease have finalized an order for four 787-9 Dreamliners), ARMH +1.6% (still checking), AMGN +1.6% (says a total of 98,062,630 shares of its common stock were properly tendered and not properly withdrawn at or below the purchase price of $60.00/share in preliminary results of its modified Dutch auction), USB +0.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), POT +0.9% (announced the settlement of its litigation with Mosaic Potash Esterhazy Limited Partnership).
Analyst comments: CEDC +9.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), AXL +3% (American Axle upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), HAL +2.1% (named a long Research Tactical Idea at Morgan Stanley, resumed with a Buy at Goldman, also added to Conviction Buy List), LULU +1.5% (resumed with a Buy at Sterne Agee).
Don't Get Psyched Out By James "Rev Shark" DePorre Dec 08, 2011 | 8:54 AM
"Hold your dog in readiness before you start the hare." --Proverb
After a couple of days of choppy action, the S&P 500 has worked off some of its overbought tendencies and is in good shape for a breakout attempt above the 200-day simple moving average at 1264. If we clear that, it's clear sailing to 1275 and the October highs. It's a promising technical setup, and with the chances of positive end-of-year seasonality, there's good reason to be optimistic about upside.
What presents a challenge is the psychology at work. Foremost, the steady flow of headlines out of Europe. The European Central Bank just cut rates, as expected, and we are seeing little reaction to that. But it's the European summit over the next few days that will be the main focus. This is the tenth such joint meeting to deal with European strife and, so far, these meetings have failed to produce any lasting positive news for the market. In fact, we have sold off following every meeting. What has boosted Europe are the coordinated moves and some of the rumors that were surprises and not anticipated. Meetings are a sideshow, for the most part.
Given how much we have run over the past two weeks, the high of expectations for this summit and the track record of subsequent softness, the bears are definitely in sell-the-news mode. What may bolster that tendency is that it has been suicidal to jump in front of European news. We gap up on every headline and you know there are more headlines coming. Why fight it? If you really want to fade strength, wait for the news to hit, and then start looking for dark-side plays.
Another interesting psychological aspect is that we have a market that has made a tremendously strong move, but rather than euphoria and bullishness, we still have many underinvested bulls trying to make up performance. This has not been a very beloved rally. Volume has been mediocre, all gains have occurred overnight, and there has been little leadership other than oils and a few other things here and there. It is surprisingly sedate sentiment despite very impressive action.
What makes the dour mood even more surprising is that we have high-visibility technicians, particularly Tom DeMark, calling for a sharp end-of-year move, and we have good conditions in place as well. Europe is probably the biggest obstacle, but hopefully it will be a little less of an issue after the news from this summit meeting emerges.
There are of lot of reasons to like this market technically and psychologically, but the focus on Europe is hurting clarity. My thesis is to look for some sort of sell-the-news reaction to Europe that gives us a buyable pullback. I'd really like to see some sort of shake to reset a few things, and Europe may be the excuse we need.
In the short term, we are on hold until this European news flow slows, but down to flat action is a positive in my estimation. I'll be looking for some buys.
European stocks retreated as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he didn’t necessarily signal that the ECB would step up government bond purchases last week when speaking before lawmakers in Brussels.
Huvitav, mida siis ikkagi sellelt EU kohtumiselt oodatakse arvestades, et ECB ilmselt oluliselt aktiivsemalt hetkel ei sekku? Mis oleks siis soovitav tulemus?
Ei tea, kas viga on minus, kuid alati enne järjekordset EU kriisikoosolekut jääb mulle erinevate tähtsate EU ametnike ja Euroopa riigijuhtide väljaütlemistest mulje, et probleemidega hakatakse taas tegelema vahetult enne kohtumist püüdes kaheteistkümnendal tunnil jänest kaabust välja võluda. Vahepeal nagu polekski kohtutud ja tööd tehtud. Või ehk isegi eelmise kohtumise lõpust natuke tagasi triivitud. Ja siis ongi kriisikohtumiste tulemuseks mittemidagiütlevad avaldused ja mingid järjekordsed viimasel minutil traagelniitidega kokku tõmmatud teoreetilised finantseerimisskeemid, mille elluviimise reaalsusesse keegi ei usu, kaasa arvatud EU liidrid ise. Kas see ongi Euroopa poliitilise eliidi ja EU haldussuutlikkuse tase?
Reuters reporting headlines from summit draft, says ESM bail-out to be given banking license; bail-out fund to be given the possibility to directly recapitalise banks