Börsipäev 7. september

Investeerimine
1

Rev Shark:

Be Skeptical of the Market's Gift
9/7/2005 8:48 AM EDT

"Do not trust the horse, Trojans! Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks, even though they bring gifts."

-- Virgil

Can this market be trusted? Since Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, it has brought us gifts in the form of higher prices. The technical action is impressive with solid breadth, good accumulation and strong momentum. If you simply look at the price action, there are few reasons not to trust the market to keep on moving higher.

The dilemma is that there seems to be few logical reasons to support such a generous market. Why is it being so kind when we have record high crude oil prices, economic fallout from a natural disaster, inflationary pressures and a mediocre economy? How can the market act so well when there are so many good reasons for why it shouldn't?

To some extent, the market is acting so well because so many people feel that it shouldn't. They are underinvested and when the market does not pull back they become frustrated, helping further upside moves by deploying some of their idle capital. The stronger the market, the more anxious they become and the more inclined they are to chase things higher.

Our problem is that we have to decide between embracing the positive action that is taking place on our screens or deferring to the logic that makes us cautious and skeptical. In other words -- is this a market that can be trusted?

I wish I could answer that question without hesitation. My gut feel is to be very careful at this juncture and be prepared to run for safety at the first sign of trouble. On the other hand, if there are good trades I'm going to take them but I will keep a tight rein on them.

This market has the makings of a Trojan Horse and as soon as enough of us let down our guards and start appreciating this generous gift, the market will unleash its fury. Don't be too trusting.

We have a slightly negative start to the day. Productivity and unit labor cost numbers just hit and indicate some inflationary pressure. Crude oil has been gaining steadily and overseas markets were mostly positive.

Gary B. Smith:

2

PIMCO’s Bill Gross in his Sep. Investment Outlook says he is worried that most of our risk asset markets (and therefore global and domestic economies since they are asset-appreciation dependent) are “past high noon.” Gross says he expects an eventual Fed easing at some point in 2006.

Other bullet points from his outlook:

  • The level of prices themselves and therefore the skimpiness of risk premiums should at some level induce investor caution seems axiomatic… but is not always a great timing tool as the Nasdaq was “bubbly at 2, but it went to 5-thousand.”
  • Greenspan is targeting the housing bubble.
  • Today’s 3½% short-term rate already seems to be having an effect on housing.
  • Recent examples from Australian and UK housing markets illustrate where even smaller absolute increases of 150 basis points in short rates were enough to stop prices going up.
  • If the home asset bubble stops expanding, then the potential for Greenspan’s "debt liquidation" follow-on is something that investors must begin to prepare for.
  • Debt liquidation, as opposed to loan growth, slows an economy or sinks it into recession, generating higher risk premiums.
  • 4% will cap Greenspan’s last bear market tightening and his successor will quickly be confronted with the necessity to lower rates once again.
3
Eile peale turgu tõstis ADTN Q3 prognoose. Täna gappis ülesse turu avanemiseks 18%. Kuigi ADCT hiljuti tõmbas käesoleva prognoose alla, liigub ADTN-ga hästi kaasa - hetkel ligi 7% plussis. Kui siia juurde veel lisada, et ADCT on oma möödunud kuu tippudest pea 20% all ja küllalt depressed, siis tundub praegune liikumine päris loogiline. Kahju ainult et ei julgenud ise bettida...

4
Rongi peale , aga kohe! snrr on 12.77 ja läheb 14 peale või 21 peale nagu seal mõned lubavad.
5
henryhenry,
Sa ise ikka oled rongi peal voi Sina rahast ei hooli ja jagad seda lahkesti ainult teistele?
Need "moned seal" on ka paris abivalmid - rong seisab ikka jaamas ja ootab...

6
Mulle näib,et täna jälgivad aktsiaindeksid, sendi pealt naftafutside hinda, kui 65.50 NYMEX oct murdub, siis tuleb ka aktsiaindeksites hype ylespoole
7
krt, ei tööta see oletus
8
to spunk123
Olen peal jah ja meel on suhteliselt ülev. Vedurijuht läks korraks teed küsima, kohe sõidame tagasi ja võtame suurema hoo sisse.
Ega Sa päris jalgsi pole?
Mul on üht-teist soovitada.
9
Mulle endale Sunterra (SNRR) päris meeldib. Hetkel kaupleb enam-vähem book value peal. Kasumlikkus peaks ajapikku märkimisväärselt paranema. Paljud reisimisega seotud aktsiad on viimasel ajal löögi all olnud eelkõige nafta tõttu ning SNRR nendega koos.

LHV Pro valik

sB
10
LHV Chatist:

[spunk123] Katrina ohvrid saavad $2000 debit cardi
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DNDN on taas huvitavaks muutumas, liigub juba mitu päeva ilma uudisteta järjekindlalt ülesse
12
Astusin juba üleeelmine nädal SNRR-i rongile.
13
Ülalpool tõin PIMCO Bill Grossi septembri jutu lühikokkuvõtte, kuid ülalolevat linki tasub täiest pikkuses lugeda, see mees oskab hästi kirjutada.
14

Nagu autole 5 jooksu valuvelgi:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=719192

15
Ostaks küll, näiteks SNRR-i, aga kõik on juba aktsiates. Mis see repotamise intress praegu LHV Traderis on?
16
Vaatasin, et HINNAKIRJAS on raha laenamine vastavalt LHV kehtestatud intressile. Kordan küsimust: Mis on LHV intress?
17
minuarust oli sellest kuskil kirjutatud
12% aasta
võin eksida
18
Küsin-vastan. Menüü TOOTE-VÕIMENDUS all on tõesti toodud ära 12%. Samas on algusosas kirjas ka järgmist:
Maaklerilt võetud laenu eest pead tasuma laenuintressi. Intressi arvutatakse võetud laenusummalt ning seda arvestatakse ACT/360 päeva baasil.
Mis see ACT on ja kas see intress (12%) kehtib ka Traderis?
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ACT = actual days
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to velvo
vaata oma positsioonid üle,
äkki on mõni ennast juba ammendanud.