hakkavad ise ostma?
fyi covered FSLR ..mõned sendid ..mkt rally
UK Brown's office says it's not holding call with bank execs and says no call planned with banks tues - DJ
USA futuurid indikeerivad päeva alanemist 2% jagu kõrgemalt võrreldes eilse sulgumisega.
Saksamaa DAX -1.22%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.55%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.41%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.69%
Venemaa MICEX -5.85%
Poola WIG -2.88%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.03%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.73%
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Tai Set 50 -4.06%
India Sensex N/A -0.90%
Uncertainty, Capitulation and the Slow Process of Bottoming
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/7/2008 8:20 AM EDT
No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear.
-- Edmund Burke
Fear firmed gripped the market on Monday as a banking and economic crisis spread around the world. This has been building for quite a while, but now it is obvious that virtually all markets are being affected.
The big problem for the market is that there are no easy solutions for this crisis. Policymakers seem lost, and we keep hearing about new approaches and ideas for dealing with the various issues. Therein lies what is weighing on the market. There is extreme uncertainty, and until we have a better grip on what to do and where things are headed it will be difficult for the market to efficiently price securities, and investors will stand aside.
The good news is that fear is reaching the point where investors are panicked. The huge, sudden drop in worldwide markets yesterday looked like at least the start of investor capitulation. Capitulation is nothing more than surrender. It happens when investors give up the fight and exit the market because they just can't take it anymore. In many cases, this is a sign that a market bottom is near.
Capitulation tends to occur after there is a long fight like the bulls have had with this market all year. They are frustrated and tired and just can't take any more. When a whole army of investors finally gives up at the same time, that often clears the selling pressure and promotes conditions that will help to stop the slide.
So was yesterday's action what we expect to see at a market bottom? It is a good start. I would not assume that there won't be some more downside, but it's how the bottoming process should start. We'd be foolish to expect that buyers will jump in and the market will leap forward with unbridled optimism.
As you know, I've been extremely defensive for quite some time as the market has trended down, but the action yesterday prompted me to finally start thinking a lot more about some long-side exposure. I took some small positions and started looking much closer at some potential buys. If the market continues to show some signs of trying to find a low, I'll continue to inch in, but it's going to take some time for a real uptrend to emerge.
Even if you do believe that the market may be groping for a low, it is still far too early to be aggressive with buys. We need some hard proof. The market has to show that it really has shaken out sellers and can hold up. It isn't going to be a smooth process, and you can be sure that confidence is going to stay very shaken.
So if you have been holding high levels of cash, it may be time to start contemplating the idea that you might be able do a little buying. I'm very encouraged by the fact that many of the folks who were bullish all year are now quite bearish. That is a sign that some capitulation has taken place. The process may need to play out further, but it has begun and that is a cause for at least a little optimism.
Market action is a bit shaky this morning, which is to be expected when you have a bout of panic like yesterday. What we need now if for the market to hold above yesterday's low and build some technical support. I'd then be looking for some sort of positive news to catch the market by surprise and give us at least a brief spike up. That might not hold, but it will begin the back-and-forth process that will help us build technical support.
There is still a lot of danger out there, but optimism has disappeared and fear is in the air. That is a good thing for those with very high levels of cash.
Buckle on your trading helmet and adjust your goggles. It's going to be an interesting market.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
Select metals/mining names showing strength with higher spot prices and slightly weaker dollar: GFI +9.3%, GOLD +8.3%, SLV +6.6%, SLW +6.5%, AU +5.7%, AEM +3.0%, GLD +2.7%, AUY +2.5%... Select oil/gas names rebounding with early strength in crude: TOT +2.5%, E +2.5%, RDS.A +1.5%... Select financial related names rebounding: NCC +10.9%, FRE +10.6%, AIG +8.5%, FNM +7.0%, ABK +6.6%... Other news: AMD +30.0% (to spin off manufacturing to new venture - WSJ), ROYL +15.7% (announces it has discovered natural gas in its Andrus Island East well in the Sacramento Basin of California), COIN +12.8% (announces initial sale of organic fertilizer to Matosantos for Puerto Rico market)... Analyst comments: JRCC +3.6% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies), FCX +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BAC -8.1% (also commences offering of ~$10 bln of common stock and lowers dividend), ITW -4.7%... Select financial stocks showing weakness following BAC results and continued weakness overseas: RBS -24.7% (stock plunged in overseas trading on reports they are seeking funding from the British Govt, but co reportedly said later that it did not make request to govt for capital), AIB -11.7%, BCS -8.8%, DB -6.1% (has no plans to raise equity capital - DJ), MER -5.0%... Select solar stocks trading lower following analyst downgrades of select names: FSLR -14.8% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman- DJ), SPWRA -11.8% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman- DJ), CSIQ -7.9%, JASO -7.9%, ESLR -6.8%, STP -6.7%, SOL -6.5%, LDK -6.5%, YGE -5.0%... Other news: SAP -11.5% (extends slide as analysts lower estimates on sales figures - Bloomberg.com), MT -10.2% (headlines on Bloomberg from yesterday say MT says steel users are destocking, taking wait and see approach), PSPT -4.2% (announces receipt of request to delay closing of merger transaction up to October 31, 2008)... Analyst comments: CRM -6.7% (downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/7/2008 8:20 AM EDT
No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear.
-- Edmund Burke
Fear firmed gripped the market on Monday as a banking and economic crisis spread around the world. This has been building for quite a while, but now it is obvious that virtually all markets are being affected.
The big problem for the market is that there are no easy solutions for this crisis. Policymakers seem lost, and we keep hearing about new approaches and ideas for dealing with the various issues. Therein lies what is weighing on the market. There is extreme uncertainty, and until we have a better grip on what to do and where things are headed it will be difficult for the market to efficiently price securities, and investors will stand aside.
The good news is that fear is reaching the point where investors are panicked. The huge, sudden drop in worldwide markets yesterday looked like at least the start of investor capitulation. Capitulation is nothing more than surrender. It happens when investors give up the fight and exit the market because they just can't take it anymore. In many cases, this is a sign that a market bottom is near.
Capitulation tends to occur after there is a long fight like the bulls have had with this market all year. They are frustrated and tired and just can't take any more. When a whole army of investors finally gives up at the same time, that often clears the selling pressure and promotes conditions that will help to stop the slide.
So was yesterday's action what we expect to see at a market bottom? It is a good start. I would not assume that there won't be some more downside, but it's how the bottoming process should start. We'd be foolish to expect that buyers will jump in and the market will leap forward with unbridled optimism.
As you know, I've been extremely defensive for quite some time as the market has trended down, but the action yesterday prompted me to finally start thinking a lot more about some long-side exposure. I took some small positions and started looking much closer at some potential buys. If the market continues to show some signs of trying to find a low, I'll continue to inch in, but it's going to take some time for a real uptrend to emerge.
Even if you do believe that the market may be groping for a low, it is still far too early to be aggressive with buys. We need some hard proof. The market has to show that it really has shaken out sellers and can hold up. It isn't going to be a smooth process, and you can be sure that confidence is going to stay very shaken.
So if you have been holding high levels of cash, it may be time to start contemplating the idea that you might be able do a little buying. I'm very encouraged by the fact that many of the folks who were bullish all year are now quite bearish. That is a sign that some capitulation has taken place. The process may need to play out further, but it has begun and that is a cause for at least a little optimism.
Market action is a bit shaky this morning, which is to be expected when you have a bout of panic like yesterday. What we need now if for the market to hold above yesterday's low and build some technical support. I'd then be looking for some sort of positive news to catch the market by surprise and give us at least a brief spike up. That might not hold, but it will begin the back-and-forth process that will help us build technical support.
There is still a lot of danger out there, but optimism has disappeared and fear is in the air. That is a good thing for those with very high levels of cash.
Buckle on your trading helmet and adjust your goggles. It's going to be an interesting market.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
Select metals/mining names showing strength with higher spot prices and slightly weaker dollar: GFI +9.3%, GOLD +8.3%, SLV +6.6%, SLW +6.5%, AU +5.7%, AEM +3.0%, GLD +2.7%, AUY +2.5%... Select oil/gas names rebounding with early strength in crude: TOT +2.5%, E +2.5%, RDS.A +1.5%... Select financial related names rebounding: NCC +10.9%, FRE +10.6%, AIG +8.5%, FNM +7.0%, ABK +6.6%... Other news: AMD +30.0% (to spin off manufacturing to new venture - WSJ), ROYL +15.7% (announces it has discovered natural gas in its Andrus Island East well in the Sacramento Basin of California), COIN +12.8% (announces initial sale of organic fertilizer to Matosantos for Puerto Rico market)... Analyst comments: JRCC +3.6% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies), FCX +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BAC -8.1% (also commences offering of ~$10 bln of common stock and lowers dividend), ITW -4.7%... Select financial stocks showing weakness following BAC results and continued weakness overseas: RBS -24.7% (stock plunged in overseas trading on reports they are seeking funding from the British Govt, but co reportedly said later that it did not make request to govt for capital), AIB -11.7%, BCS -8.8%, DB -6.1% (has no plans to raise equity capital - DJ), MER -5.0%... Select solar stocks trading lower following analyst downgrades of select names: FSLR -14.8% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman- DJ), SPWRA -11.8% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman- DJ), CSIQ -7.9%, JASO -7.9%, ESLR -6.8%, STP -6.7%, SOL -6.5%, LDK -6.5%, YGE -5.0%... Other news: SAP -11.5% (extends slide as analysts lower estimates on sales figures - Bloomberg.com), MT -10.2% (headlines on Bloomberg from yesterday say MT says steel users are destocking, taking wait and see approach), PSPT -4.2% (announces receipt of request to delay closing of merger transaction up to October 31, 2008)... Analyst comments: CRM -6.7% (downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital).
First Hour Sector Strength:
Ag./Chem.- MOO +8.1%, Silver- SLV +5.8%, Ags.- DBA +4.0%, Coal- KOL +3.5%, Commodities- DBC +3.1%, Energy- XLE +3.4%, Base Metals- DBB +3.1%, Gold/Gold Miners- GLD +2.4%/GDX +3.1%,Metals/Mining- XME +2.6%
First Hour Sector Weakness:
Solar Powr- TAN -5.0%/KWT -5.0%, Financial Srvc- IYG -4.6%,Regional Banks- RKH -4.1%,Finance- IYF -3.7%, Wind Energy- FAN -3.1%, Commercial Banks- KBE -3.1%, Insurers- KIE-2.6%
Credit Suisse'i mõtteid (lühidalt öeldes on nad optimistid lühemas perspektiivis, kuid ettevaatlikud pikemas).
Hearing Credit Suisse upgrading U.S. Equities for mostly tactical reasons to a small overweight and would look to downgrade if the S&P500 rallied to around 1200
If credit markets remain closed and central banks/policy makers remain reactive, then the S&P500 will probably fall another 10-15%
Hearing Credit Suisse upgrading U.S. Equities for mostly tactical reasons to a small overweight and would look to downgrade if the S&P500 rallied to around 1200
If credit markets remain closed and central banks/policy makers remain reactive, then the S&P500 will probably fall another 10-15%
(FSLR) First Solar: Hearing FSLR added to Short Term Buy List at Deutsche Bank (141.70 -18.01) -Update-
Aktsia pole hetkel veel toetust saanud, kaupleb -10% $143 tasemel.
Aktsia pole hetkel veel toetust saanud, kaupleb -10% $143 tasemel.
Joel poolt viidatud CS vaatele lisaks
karuturu ralli ca +15% käesoleva aasta lõpus, kuid aktsiad flat 12 kuu perspektiivis ning uue pullituru algus 2009. aasta lõpus - esirinnas taas arenevad turud ja commodities ... selline on Morgan Stanley ootus
karuturu ralli ca +15% käesoleva aasta lõpus, kuid aktsiad flat 12 kuu perspektiivis ning uue pullituru algus 2009. aasta lõpus - esirinnas taas arenevad turud ja commodities ... selline on Morgan Stanley ootus
(GOOG) Google: Hearing Piper commenting that comScore data just published data suggesting GOOG US business (49% of revenue) is tracking inline with expectations (350.75 -20.50)
Kas uudis võiks aktsiale tuge pakkuda? Hetkel üsna tugevalt alla müüdud -5.50% $350 tasemel.
Kas uudis võiks aktsiale tuge pakkuda? Hetkel üsna tugevalt alla müüdud -5.50% $350 tasemel.
ECB's Trichet calls for unity in International response to crisis-- Bloomberg
VIX indeks on voiimastel päevadel olnud tasemetel, kus ta pole 1990. aastast saadik kunagi olnud (enne vist ei arvutatud, vähemalt graafik ei näita).
US Federal funds rise to 5%, above 2% target rate Fed sets - Reuters
Bernanke says will need to consider whether current policy stance remains appropriate
Bernanke says market turmoil, soft data show US growth outlook worsening, downside risks rising - Reuters
Bernanke begins speech on Financial Markets; says market developments show higher threat to growth
Bernanke says market turmoil, soft data show US growth outlook worsening, downside risks rising - Reuters
Bernanke begins speech on Financial Markets; says market developments show higher threat to growth
Bernanke says that government moves ha ve 'appeared to stabilize the GSEs'
(MS) Morgan Stanley kohta jällegi kuulujutud liikvel, mille kohaselt Mitsubishi võib tehingust taganeda.
Stock down 25% today; just passing along but there is chatter that Mitsubishi could pull out of the deal; we have not heard anything definitive but wanted to make you aware of what is out there (17.59 -5.94)
Stock down 25% today; just passing along but there is chatter that Mitsubishi could pull out of the deal; we have not heard anything definitive but wanted to make you aware of what is out there (17.59 -5.94)
UK banks set to agree 50 bln pounds package - The Independent
Madis T, mis arvad, kas RSX võib antud tasemetelt lähiajal(ca kuu perspektiivis) väikse põrke sooritada või ei ole erilist lootust?
(MS) käis kuulujuttude peale $14.13 tasemel, kuid nüüd sai juba kaitset ning taastunud $17 tasemele, kuid siiski -27% languses.
Morgan Stanley: Hearing tier-1 firm out defending MS
Morgan Stanley: Hearing tier-1 firm out defending MS
Njah, praegusel turul ei maksa ennustamine krossigi. Sentiment on nii negatiivne, et isegi AK räägib viiendat minutit raha- ja aktsiaturgudest. Hirm on praegu suur ning on võimalus, et mingi hetk tehakse selle pealt USAs kõva ralli, mis veab kaasa ka muud turud, sh Venemaa. Pakun, et käesolev nädal jääb USAs mitme kuu põhjaks ning sama käib ka Venemaa kohta.