Tänaselt tööjõuraportilt oodatakse, et töötuse määr tõuseb tagasi detsembri 5%-ni, kuid mitteametlikud ootused tunduvad veel kõrgemal olevat. See omakorda tähendab, et futuurid indikeerivad 98%-lise tõenäosusega 0.75%-list intressimäärade kärbet. Dollarile see positiivselt ei mõju, uus põhi euro vastu on $1.5430.
Kuigi nüüd tööjõuraporti number on ikkagi 'umbmäärane' ja reaalne töökohtade lisamine/vähenemine võib kõikuda ca +/-100,000 võrra, siis ütlen ikkagi ära, et tänane konsensusootus veebruarikuu kohta on +25,000. Esialgsed andmed jaanuari kohta olid mäletatavasti -17 000 ning tähelepanu siis ka selle numbri uuendatud suurusele.
Negatiivne number lennutaks USA majanduse majanduslanguse hirme ja suurendaks investorite ootusi intressimäära kärpe osas (ja ilmselt kuuleksime siis taas palveid/soove/arvamusi kärpe tegemise kohta juba enne regulaarset kohtumist 18. märtsil). Oodatust ilusam number peaks aga viimase aja aktsiaturu karude rõõmupidu vähendama.
Negatiivne number lennutaks USA majanduse majanduslanguse hirme ja suurendaks investorite ootusi intressimäära kärpe osas (ja ilmselt kuuleksime siis taas palveid/soove/arvamusi kärpe tegemise kohta juba enne regulaarset kohtumist 18. märtsil). Oodatust ilusam number peaks aga viimase aja aktsiaturu karude rõõmupidu vähendama.
Ei pidanudki väga kaua ootama:
CNBC attributes recent gains in futures to rumors & blog posting suggesting the Fed could ease rates today in emergency action
CNBC attributes recent gains in futures to rumors & blog posting suggesting the Fed could ease rates today in emergency action
FED likviidsus rindel toetamas. FRB: The Federal Reserve on Friday announced two initiatives to address heightened liquidity pressures in term funding markets.
1) The amounts outstanding in the Term Auction Facility (TAF) will be increased to $100 billion.
2) Beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion.
1) The amounts outstanding in the Term Auction Facility (TAF) will be increased to $100 billion.
2) Beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion.
Föderaalreserv on intressikärbete asemel inflatsiooni tõttu muutumas loomingulisemaks? Hea küsimus on see, kas see tähendab ka väiksemaid kärpeid Fedi poolt 18. märtsil...
February Nonfarm Payrolls -63K vs 25K consensus, January revised to -23K from -17K
Ametlik töötuse määr aga 4.8% vs kardetud 5.0%.
Link terviklikule pressiteatele siin.
No eile veel implied probability näitas -50 bps cutti sel aastal kindlasti ja -75 bps oli üsna tõenäoline. US reaalintressid varsti kõrge infla kaasabil nii negatiivsed. Hmmm...
Implied probability: 75BPS cut 100% sisse kaubeldud, 100bps cut üsna tõenäoline.
wink-wink
wink-wink
Reaalintressidest siis... core PCE inflatsioon on 2.2%... üldinflatsioon koos toidu ja energiaga peaks olema 4.2% (tarbija seisukohast kusjuures näiteks hariduse, meditsiini inflatsioon pisut üle 6%, energiast ja toidust ei räägigi). Tänane Föderaalreservi intress täna veel 3.0% ja varsti veelgi vähem. Põhimõtteliselt on USA reaalintressid juba täna negatiivsed (vähemasti tavainimese seisukohast kindlasti).
Ainult punased toonid...
Saksamaa DAX -1.71%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.66%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.50%
Hispaania IBEX -1.25%
Venemaa MICEX -2.21%
Poola WIG -2.00%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.27%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.60%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.39%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.54%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.35%
Tai Set -0.76%
India Sensex -3.42%
Jobs Number Confirms the Downward Trend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/7/2008 9:00 AM EST
The jobs report is out, and the headline number is indeed a disappointing loss of 63,000 jobs vs. expectations of a gain of 25,000 jobs. In addition, December and January figures were revised down. The less important household survey shows the unemployment rate a bit better at 4.8%.
This report is confirmation that the trend is down and that we are in great danger of falling into a recession if we haven't already. The big problem is that many people fear that things will get worse before they get better.
The Fed has already reacted this morning with some additional moves to increase liquidity. Unfortunately, the market seems to feel that this has taken an intermeeting interest rate cut off the table. It is hope of a cut that has the best chances of putting a floor under this market.
We are oversold, and things are very gloomy, and that supports some sort of technical bounce, but without some positive news catalyst, it is hard to imagine we can do much to the upside. Market players are more likely looking for ways to escape this market rather than opportunities to buy "bargains," and that is what will provide much overhead resistance.
---------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MVIS +19.3%, SMTX +17.5%, UWN +17.2%, ZQK +10.2%, OPTM +9.6%, EBS +9.3%, EJ +8.2%, IDIX +7.4%, NSM +7.1%, SWHC +7.0%, COO +6.2%, VVUS +5.2%, ANSW +5.1%, PSMT +4.8%, NSTR +4.6%, CIEN +4.3%, AUO +3.5%, MF +3.3%, CPE +2.8%, DEPO +2.3%, FIZZ +2.0%, IVC +1.3%... M&A news: ATAR +8.1% (receives offer from Infogrames Entertainment S.A equal to $1.68/share)... Other news: SFI +14.4% (co declared regular dividend & is holding business update call), PWER +10.0% (extends $50 mln loan agreement for 2 yrs), VMED +6.3% (appoints Neil Berkett as CEO and announces the upcoming resignation of its Chief Financial Officer), TMS +6.3% (rebounding after this week's ~11% decline), CHU +4.3% (to spend RMB20 bln on GSM update - Pacific Epoch), CMO +3.4% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's ~30% drop), SPC +2.9% (has entered into a confidentiality and standstill agreement with Harbinger Capital), ARRY +2.9% (Director bought 30K shares at $6.37 on 3/5), NFLX +2.2% (announces authorization of new $150 mln stock buyback), ALB +2.1% (to raise prices of ETHACURE curatives), SAP +2.0% (still checking), EGO +1.8% (continued momentum following yesterday's 12% surge), BHI +1.8% (reports Feb 08 rig counts), KNL +1.7% (announces 10b5-1 Plan; Banc of America Securities will have the authority to repurchase up to an aggregate of ~$10 bln worth of the cos stock)... Analyst upgrades: BBI +6.2% (added to Top Picks list at Citigroup), URBN +4.7% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), BIG +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil), GLBL +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), STRA +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), CEO +2.7% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), MKTX +2.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse), FLWS +2.3% (initiated with Buy at Soleil), MPG +2.0% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank)
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: PSPT -23.7% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray), CPRT -13.5%, BLG -13.4%, BOOM -10.4%, VE -9.7%, ANGO -9.3%, RAE -7.8% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), CASY -6.9%, MRVL -6.6%, DSTI -5.6%, UMC -1.5%... Select financial stocks showing weakness on multiple negative news items: LM -5.6% (announces that it has obtained a letter of credit from a large bank to provide support to a Structured Investment Vehicle holding in a money market fund), WM -4.5% (seeks cash infusions from private-equity and sovereign-wealth funds), CIT -2.2%, C -2.1% (to reduce residential mortgage assets in its U.S. mortgage biz by approx $45 bln over the next 12 months), LEH -2.0%, MS -1.9%, GS -1.6%, MER -1.4%, BSC -1.3%... Select solar stocks showing weakness: YGE -4.2%, SOLF -3.7%, CSIQ -3.1%, FSLR -2.4%, JASO -1.6%, ESLR -1.3%, SPWR 1.5%... Other news: FRZ -22.1% (Federal officials executed a search warrant at the co's office and downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia), ABK -11.1% (prices common stock and equity unit offerings for an aggregate of $1.5 bln), NG -8.0% (plans C$130 mln shr offering), ALD -7.0% (files for a 4 mln share common stock secondary offering), TI -6.9% (showing continued weakness after reporting qtrly results yesterday), PNM -6.2% (announces electric rate recommended decision issued), MT -2.6%, BHP -1.6% and RTP -1.6% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: ZINC -8.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), RAE -7.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), SHO -6.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette), RDY -3.8% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), FCX -2.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), TRAK -2.1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at JMP),
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/7/2008 9:00 AM EST
The jobs report is out, and the headline number is indeed a disappointing loss of 63,000 jobs vs. expectations of a gain of 25,000 jobs. In addition, December and January figures were revised down. The less important household survey shows the unemployment rate a bit better at 4.8%.
This report is confirmation that the trend is down and that we are in great danger of falling into a recession if we haven't already. The big problem is that many people fear that things will get worse before they get better.
The Fed has already reacted this morning with some additional moves to increase liquidity. Unfortunately, the market seems to feel that this has taken an intermeeting interest rate cut off the table. It is hope of a cut that has the best chances of putting a floor under this market.
We are oversold, and things are very gloomy, and that supports some sort of technical bounce, but without some positive news catalyst, it is hard to imagine we can do much to the upside. Market players are more likely looking for ways to escape this market rather than opportunities to buy "bargains," and that is what will provide much overhead resistance.
---------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MVIS +19.3%, SMTX +17.5%, UWN +17.2%, ZQK +10.2%, OPTM +9.6%, EBS +9.3%, EJ +8.2%, IDIX +7.4%, NSM +7.1%, SWHC +7.0%, COO +6.2%, VVUS +5.2%, ANSW +5.1%, PSMT +4.8%, NSTR +4.6%, CIEN +4.3%, AUO +3.5%, MF +3.3%, CPE +2.8%, DEPO +2.3%, FIZZ +2.0%, IVC +1.3%... M&A news: ATAR +8.1% (receives offer from Infogrames Entertainment S.A equal to $1.68/share)... Other news: SFI +14.4% (co declared regular dividend & is holding business update call), PWER +10.0% (extends $50 mln loan agreement for 2 yrs), VMED +6.3% (appoints Neil Berkett as CEO and announces the upcoming resignation of its Chief Financial Officer), TMS +6.3% (rebounding after this week's ~11% decline), CHU +4.3% (to spend RMB20 bln on GSM update - Pacific Epoch), CMO +3.4% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's ~30% drop), SPC +2.9% (has entered into a confidentiality and standstill agreement with Harbinger Capital), ARRY +2.9% (Director bought 30K shares at $6.37 on 3/5), NFLX +2.2% (announces authorization of new $150 mln stock buyback), ALB +2.1% (to raise prices of ETHACURE curatives), SAP +2.0% (still checking), EGO +1.8% (continued momentum following yesterday's 12% surge), BHI +1.8% (reports Feb 08 rig counts), KNL +1.7% (announces 10b5-1 Plan; Banc of America Securities will have the authority to repurchase up to an aggregate of ~$10 bln worth of the cos stock)... Analyst upgrades: BBI +6.2% (added to Top Picks list at Citigroup), URBN +4.7% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), BIG +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil), GLBL +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), STRA +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), CEO +2.7% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), MKTX +2.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse), FLWS +2.3% (initiated with Buy at Soleil), MPG +2.0% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank)
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: PSPT -23.7% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray), CPRT -13.5%, BLG -13.4%, BOOM -10.4%, VE -9.7%, ANGO -9.3%, RAE -7.8% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), CASY -6.9%, MRVL -6.6%, DSTI -5.6%, UMC -1.5%... Select financial stocks showing weakness on multiple negative news items: LM -5.6% (announces that it has obtained a letter of credit from a large bank to provide support to a Structured Investment Vehicle holding in a money market fund), WM -4.5% (seeks cash infusions from private-equity and sovereign-wealth funds), CIT -2.2%, C -2.1% (to reduce residential mortgage assets in its U.S. mortgage biz by approx $45 bln over the next 12 months), LEH -2.0%, MS -1.9%, GS -1.6%, MER -1.4%, BSC -1.3%... Select solar stocks showing weakness: YGE -4.2%, SOLF -3.7%, CSIQ -3.1%, FSLR -2.4%, JASO -1.6%, ESLR -1.3%, SPWR 1.5%... Other news: FRZ -22.1% (Federal officials executed a search warrant at the co's office and downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia), ABK -11.1% (prices common stock and equity unit offerings for an aggregate of $1.5 bln), NG -8.0% (plans C$130 mln shr offering), ALD -7.0% (files for a 4 mln share common stock secondary offering), TI -6.9% (showing continued weakness after reporting qtrly results yesterday), PNM -6.2% (announces electric rate recommended decision issued), MT -2.6%, BHP -1.6% and RTP -1.6% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: ZINC -8.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), RAE -7.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), SHO -6.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette), RDY -3.8% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), FCX -2.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), TRAK -2.1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at JMP),
09:34 RTRS - Estonia plans U.S. visa deal next week
tra, selle uudise pärast USA turg kukubki.
tra, selle uudise pärast USA turg kukubki.
oot, Estonia on Visa IPO underwriter?
ei, Esimene eestlane saab VISA kaardi
Lõpuks siis tunnustatakse ka kõrgemal tasemel, sest eestlased on kogu aeg visad olnud.
bruce willis
USAs juba suures kartuses arvestatakse Visa mega writedowne, kuna see ainuke magnetkaart scämmitakse nii ära, et saab mortgage laenu võtta piiramatult ja ilma mortagegata siis.
Üsna loogiline, et asi saab formaalsused Tartus Visa hallis
Urmas Sõõrumaa saab lõpuks visa krediitkaardi ? Tõepoolest , finantsjärelvalve on nõrgaks jäänud ....
Oliver Kruuda, Armin Karu ja Jaan Toots osalevad avalikul loosimisel (kes saab kaardi), show kantakse üle ETV-s 22. märtsil kell 21.00 (AK jääb sel päeval ära)