Enough Positives for a Bounce?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/7/2010 8:18 AM EDT
"Defend me, God, from myself."
-- Spanish Proverb
Early indications have been steadily improving overnight, and we are now set to have a slightly positive open. BP (BP) made some progress with the Gulf oil spill, and Hungary has backed off from comments about a fiscal crisis.
On the other hand, the weak jobs report from Friday has not been explained away, and the meeting of G-20 countries failed to produce any clear solutions. In fact, the main news story out of the G-20 meeting was that many members favored fiscal restraint over the stimulus approach favored by the Obama administration. Clearly, the European sovereign debt is far from being resolved.
The big question for us to ponder this morning is whether conditions are good for this market to bounce. The action on Friday helped cement the fact that we are undergoing a severe correction and are presently caught in a downtrend. We were pushed down quite hard, which makes some sort of oversold a possibility, especially on a Monday that has consistently been positive over the past year.
The primary challenge when market conditions are like this is that while we want to respect the fact that we are in a downtrend, it is very tempting to try to play some oversold bounces. Generally, what makes downtrends so painful for market players is that they rack up a steady stream of losses as they keep trying to catch the market low.
It is human nature to keep looking for a turning point within a downtrend, but it is nearly an impossible thing to do with any precision. The biggest losses are incurred by market players when they keep on buying stocks that are in a downtrend. More often than not, stocks that appear to be cheap become even cheaper as a downtrend plays out. If you have averaged in too early, it is very tough to take the pain if your positions are too big, and you end up selling at just the wrong time.
When the market is in a downtrend, our No. 1 goal should be to protect capital. Avoiding losses as the market corrects gives us a huge advantage because we won't have to waste our capital or time making up losses when conditions improve. Nothing is more unproductive than working to get back to even, and the easiest way to assure you don't stay close to even is to be long during a downtrend.
If you stay focused on the major market trend and don't keep trying to guess specific turning points, you are much more likely to keep your capital safe. You don't have to be in an uptrend at the exact turning point in order to make money. In fact, if you have avoided the losses of a downtrend, you can afford to be careful about embracing the market until it proves itself.
We have a little bounce going this morning, which is going to be a good test of how strong the dip-buying interest is. The dip-buyers controlled this market from March 2009 to April 2010, but over the past month, they have been incapable of putting together a sustained bounce. We have had a couple big days, but we have had two successive positive days only once since the first of May.
So we'll see what the dip-buyers can do this morning. They have some incremental positive news to work with, but there are still substantial uncertainties out there, and that is going to make it difficult for the bulls.
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Briefing.com vahendusel:
Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: TLCR +54.0% (Grifols to acquire Talecris Biotherapeutics for ~$26.16 in cash and stock).
Select financial related names showing strength: STD +3.1%, UBS +2.9%, CS +2.4%, BCS +1.8%, RF +1.7%, BBVA +1.6%, HBC +1.5%, DB +1.3%, JPM +1.0%.
Select oil/gas related names rebounding: BP +3.7% (provides update on developments in response to MC252 oil well incident in GoM), ATPG +3.3%, NOV +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), RIG +2.1%, HAL +1.7%, WFT +1.5%, SLB 1.2%.
Other news: KRY +98.1% (signed agreement with China Railway Resources Group to create a strategic partnership for the development of the Las Cristinas gold project), ARQL +17.0% (ArQule and Daiichi Sankyo present final Ph. 2 results for ARQ 197 c-Met inhibitor in NSCLC), BPAX +13.4% (announces FDA Orphan drug designation for GVAX chronic myeloid leukemia cancer vaccine), CTIC +8.8% (announces that updated phase II study results of OPAXIO), CLDX +6.7% (announces that interim results from a Phase 2b study evaluating rindopepimut; presents positive results from Ph. 1/2 advanced breast cancer study with CDX-011), HGSI +5.6% (announces submission of Marketing Authorization Application to EMA for BENLYSTA), VVUS +5.3% (announces positive results from phase 3 study of Avanafil in diabetics with erectile dysfunction), BMY +5.2% (Investigational compound ipilimumab demonstrates improved overall survival in Ph. 3 trial of previously-treated patients with metastatic melanoma; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), MMC +4.8% (Altegrity will acquire Kroll Inc. from MMC in an all-cash transaction valued at $1.13 bln, ONCY +4.8% (light volume; collaborators present positive updated U.K. Phase I/II trial results in advanced solid cancers with a focus on the head and neck at the ASCO), S +4.6% (reports that the HTC EVO 4G provided record sales figures for Sprint stores around the country), ABII +3.2% (Results of Ph. 3 ABRAXANE combination trial in first-line NSCLC show 31% improvement in response rate compared with Taxol combination).
Analyst comments: TLAB +7.4% (Street seems to be panicking; risk/reward looks favorable - Auriga), AMZN +3.1% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), CSCO +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OII -1.9%.
Other news: APPY -40.8% (Updates on AppyScore FDA 510(k) filing and data analysis ), IRE -15.3% (trading ex dividend), DCTH -9.9% (highlights Ph. III trial results presented at ASCO ), OTE -6.1% (to propose lowered dividend given the change in circumstances arising from the austerity measures), PTNR -3.5% (trading ex dividend), FTR -2.9% (trading ex dividend).
Analyst comments: WPRT -2.5% (downgraded to Sector Underperform from Sector Perform at CIBC ), CHS -1.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), ABT -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
Kas oleks võimalik et mingi aja pärast tulevikus USA devalveeriks dollarit?Tagasi vast nagunii ei maksa hiinale jms riikidele võlakirjade eest niipalju.
jarzzz,
purjus oled või? Kuidas saab USA dollarit devalveerida? Ütleb Euroopale ja Hiinale, et nii poisid, me sidusime dollari kullast lahti? Wait a minute.... see juhtus ju 1971. aastal, kui USA viimati millegi külge seotud oli. Tänapäeval USA dollari kurss kujuneb vabal turul vastavalt nõudlusele ja pakkumisele. Fed võib dollari pakkumispoolt suurendada, kuid see ei on midagi muud kui devalveerimine.
purjus oled või? Kuidas saab USA dollarit devalveerida? Ütleb Euroopale ja Hiinale, et nii poisid, me sidusime dollari kullast lahti? Wait a minute.... see juhtus ju 1971. aastal, kui USA viimati millegi külge seotud oli. Tänapäeval USA dollari kurss kujuneb vabal turul vastavalt nõudlusele ja pakkumisele. Fed võib dollari pakkumispoolt suurendada, kuid see ei on midagi muud kui devalveerimine.
edit nupp on puudu:
viimase rea lõpp: see on midagi muud kui devalveerimine
viimase rea lõpp: see on midagi muud kui devalveerimine
Nii võiks teha küll pullipärast:)
Purjus peaga floating valuutat devalveerida? Eks sa proovi... ;)
Tänane päev on päris ilusti alanud. Kui tuleb trendipäev nagu viimasel ajal väga tihti kombeks, siis see peaks siit ilusti näha olema: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUPV&p=5&b=5&g=0&i=p49331743718&r=8830
Rohelisega on UP volume, punasega DOWN volume.
Rohelisega on UP volume, punasega DOWN volume.
Üks verine päevalõpp jälle. Aga ehk on täna vastupidiselt reedele turg oma põhja tund enne kauplemispäeva lõppu ära tegemas (hirmus, et viimasel tunnil võib tulla tugev selloff) ja sulgemise ajaks põrkame hoopis tagasi ülespoole?
Mingit põrget ei tule! Sirgelt müüjakse need põrked ära.
Selge terend alla.
Selge terend alla.
Nüüd ei julge enam keegi öelda ,et head ostukohad.
Homme veel paremad jne.
Homme veel paremad jne.
Goldman sai finantskriisi uurivalt komisjonilt kohtukutse.
http://www.ap3.ee/?PublicationId=ec314129-cce5-42a8-a720-bf4a896950b1
siit võib nii mõndagi välja tulla.
http://www.ap3.ee/?PublicationId=ec314129-cce5-42a8-a720-bf4a896950b1
siit võib nii mõndagi välja tulla.
Natural gas pipeline explodes in north Texas
A massive fire has swept a rural area southwest of Dallas after the blast.
3 reported dead, 10 missing
A massive fire has swept a rural area southwest of Dallas after the blast.
3 reported dead, 10 missing
Bad News For Gas Drillers: DEP Orders EOG Resources To Halt All Nat Gas Drilling In Pennsylvania
WJSis täna: Arthur Laffer: Tax Hikes and the 2011 Economic Collapse
Huvitav artikkel Lafferi kõvera autorilt selle kohta, mis juhtub järgmine aasta kui Bushi maksusoodustused aeguvad.
Huvitav artikkel Lafferi kõvera autorilt selle kohta, mis juhtub järgmine aasta kui Bushi maksusoodustused aeguvad.
Kristock
Minu teada ei ole USD kullaga tagatud juba ammu. Pigem seadusega.
Minu teada ei ole USD kullaga tagatud juba ammu. Pigem seadusega.
Džiisös, HEINZ, sa ka purjus? Ma ei saa kuidagi aru, kuidas sa said mu kommentaarist välja lugeda nagu ma oleks väitnud, et USD on (tänasel päeval) kullaga seotud.