Euro on dollari vastu kiiret nõrgenemist jätkanud ka täna (-0.8%) ning nüüdseks oleme jõudnud tasemele €1=$1.272. Tugevnev dollar surub allapoole dollaris mõõdetavaid naftahindu, mis on ka tänase eelturu jooksul juba -1.8% ning tasemel $78.6. S&P500 indeksi futuur hetkel -0.7% ja Nasdaq100 indeksi futuur -0.9%.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.07% Pantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.58% Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0.03% Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.15% Rootsi OMX 30 -0.41% Venemaa MICEX -0.50% Poola WIG -0.24%
Aasia turud: Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.27% Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.96% Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -4.11% Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.51% Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.88% Tai Set 50 -1.82% India Sensex 30 -0.59%
Market Players Are Getting Rattled By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 5/6/2010 8:40 AM EDT
"No object is so beautiful that, under certain conditions, it will not look ugly."
-- Oscar Wilde
A period of choppiness followed by a two-day pullback has market players contemplating whether we are finally going to see the ugly action that the bears have been anticipating for over a year. We've had some sharp pullbacks along the way, especially in June and July 2009 and more recently in January and February 2010, but each time we bounced back sharply just when it looked like we were about to really crack.
So far, the current pullback is not nearly as deep as the two earlier ones, and we haven't yet breached the uptrend line, but this market that was looking so lovely for so long is now making market players nervous. Many key stocks are acting quite poorly, and there hasn't been much interest in buying the weakness. It was notable yesterday that the bulls were unable to put together a bounce after the sharp selloff on Tuesday. They showed some minor interest, but breadth stayed poor and we drifting lower all afternoon.
The key to this market strength since the rally started back in March is the dip-buyers. They have consistently shown up and powered the market straight back up just when it looked like the bears were finally digging in their claws.
The bears are arguing that this time it is different and that the dip-buyers aren't going to bail this market out so easily. They see the European sovereign debt issue and the weak euro as major problems that will not be cleared up quickly or easily. In addition, there is negative seasonality kicking in, which is summed up in the old adage that we should "sell in May and go away." That hasn't always worked very well, but when there are big profits to protect, it can motivate some selling that we might not otherwise see.
My game plan as the market ran straight up and became increasingly extended was to stay short-term bullish but keep stops tight and be quick to take gains. That approach put me in cash very quickly as we rolled over, and now I'm giving the bears the benefit of the doubt. That means I look for bounce attempts to fail and for short setups to develop.
With the character of the market now becoming more bearish, there are two ways to approach it. The first, which is the most popular, is to look for oversold bounces. The great benefit of that is that for over a year the oversold bounces seem to turn into new uptrends. Once a bounce starts going, they seem to keep on going and don't stop until we hit new highs. If that continues to be the pattern, then catching oversold bounces can pay off very nicely.
The other approach as the market shows signs of rolling over is to short failed bounces, especially as they hit overhead resistance levels. Take a stock like Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) , for example, which has broken down dramatically over the last two weeks. It bounced back sharply yesterday on good volume, but it faces some major overhead if it continues to bounce back toward $65. If the market weakens again, fading a bounce in Cliffs Natural Resources could work well.
The problem with shorting bounces is that the shorts who have tried that in the past year have been crushed as stocks go straight back up and cut through resistance levels like a hot knife through butter. Betting on failed bounces is a sound approach technically, but this market has not followed the pattern for long.
It is the bounces that are going to give us the best reading on the health of this market. If they don't last and the dip-buyers lose their zeal, it is going to be a rocky ride, but if the bounces start to morph into yet another V-shaped bounce, then the short squeezes are going to be particularly painful.
We have a muddled start this morning as market players focus on the European Central Bank interest rate decision. There is no change in rates, but we are now awaiting the press conference that will provide more details.
Asian stocks acted very poorly overnight, and U.S. futures are down slightly as I write. Greece and the debt issues in Europe remain the focus of the market. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: PACR +15.9%, ADCT +11.5% (also upgraded to Buy at Auriga U.S.A), MGA +9.9%, CAAS +9.2%, SMSI +9.1% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), ENOC +9.0% (also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery), APT +8.2% (light volume), FSYS +8.1%, FBN +8.1%, MED +7.9%, CLWR +7.8%, PGTI +6.9%, WATG +5.0% (light volume), EDMC +4.8%, TIE +4.6%, ONNN +4.5%, JAZZ +4.2% (light volume), SYMC +4.1%, FLS +4.0%, KLIC +2.6%, SMG +2.0%, MCHP +1.8%, RIG +1.7% (also files 10-Q; says expect to incur significant legal fees and costs in responding to Deepwater Horizon incident ).
M&A news: HTRN +32.6% (HealthTronics to be acquired by Endo Pharma for $4.85 per share).
Other news: AEZS +17.3% (receives Orphan-Drug designation from the FDA for AEZS-108 in ovarian cancer), NEXM +17.1% (announces patent allowance for NexACT in Canada), KERX +10.2% (Initiates Phase 3 Registration Program of Zerenex), LXRX +6.7% (presents positive outcome in IBS patients treated with LX1031 and data supporting mechanism of action), KFN +6.1% (announces withdrawal of its common shares offering), OSIR +4.0% (resumes enrollment in stem cell trial for Crohn's Disease following positive interim analysis), HNT +1.7% (Department of Defense intends to award Health Net the TRICARE North contract).
Analyst comments: SIRO +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), JCI +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), MU +1.5% (initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: AVNW -10.7%, MEND -10.0%, CENT -10.0%, RWC -9.1%, SONE -8.5%, COGT -8.4%, JDSU -7.7%, BEE -7.5%, QSFT -7.3%, HAIN -7.3% (also downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital ), UNTD -5.8%, ANF -5.7%, OSUR -5.6%, EXM -5.2%, FRE -4.9%, TGT -4.2%, ENP -4.2% (light volume), DDS -4.1%, GPS -3.6%, ROST -3.5%, BMC -3.4%, CBS -3.1%, CBS -3.1%, HOTT -2.2%, AEO -2.1%, KSS -2.0%, TJX -1.6%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -5.5%, DB -4.2%, ING -2.7%, BCS -2.7%, HBC -2.4%, RBS -1.6%, CS -1.5%, LYG -1.1%.
Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: TOT -2.2%, REP -2.1%, E -2.0%, RDS.A -1.5%
Other news: ALU -10.6% (still checking for anything specific), TEF -4.8% (trading ex dividend), IMGN -5.6% (announces proposed public offering of common stock).
Analyst comments: ATW -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James ), HLS -0.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo).
Kui Aasias on keskpangad asunud intressimäärasid tasapisi tõstma ja sama oodataks ka Fedilt ja ECBlt, siis Tšehhid üllatasid investoreid baasintressimäära langetamisega protsendi pealt 0.75% peale (hiljuti on sama teinud ka Ungari ja Rumeenia)
Kui, tõsiselt rääkida, siis mulle tundub üha enam, et kuld võib jätkata oma tõusutrendi. Nüüd oleks vaja ainult mingit katalüsaatorit (euroopa võlakriis?). Vaatasin järgi, et kuld tõusis perioodil september 2008 - märts 2009 umbes 17%, samal ajal kui dollar tugevnes järsult. Seega kulla ja dollari korrelatsioon alati ei kehti. Suured hedgefundid (Paulson, Soros) on juba varasemalt oma kulla positsioone suurendanud. Üks negatiivne aspekt on minu arust küll see, et füüsilise kulla järele on nõudlus endiselt madal.
Esimerkiksi Barclaysin strategi Michael Crook ennakoi kullan laskevan takaisin 800 dollarin tasolle. ”Ei ole mitään muuta markkinaa, johon olisi rakennettu samantyyppinen kriisipreemio”, Crook kommentoi TheStreet.comille. ”Kriisit ovat korkea työttömyys, nollainflaatio ja hidas kasvu. Kaikki nämä ovat huonoja kullalle.” http://www.arvopaperi.fi/uutisarkisto/article402374.ece?service=mobile