Mis krt toimub? Kuidas sai nii juhtuda, et macro data lekib. Kas ametlikku linki pressikale ISM-i apsu kohta saaks keegi anda? Tegemist ei ole ju päris tavapärase olukorraga.
Aceept the Facts
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/5/2008 8:30 AM EST
Acceptance of what has happened is the first step to overcoming the consequences of any misfortune.
-- William James
After a strong bounce over the past week, the market pulled back on lighter volume yesterday. Although the technical conditions still support the proposition that we have seen nothing more than a countertrend bounce within a bear market, the conditions are still in place for a bit more upside in the near future.
What makes bounces like the one we experienced last week so dangerous is that they are often accompanied by the belief that the worst is over. The big hope among the bulls is that the fiscal stimulus plan and the Fed interest rate cuts are going to cure our economic problems and put the stock market in an upward trajectory.
The biggest hurdle to that happening is that we really have seen nothing to indicate that the economy is bottoming. In fact, the indications are that we are just starting to see evidence that a slowdown is at hand. The likelihood is that we are going to see poor economic stats of various sorts in the weeks and months ahead.
The bulls argue that although the economy is struggling, we now know the Fed is on our side and is prepared to battle those problems with more rate cuts in the months ahead. The logic is that even though we may go through a period of softness, stocks can rally from here because we can be confident that the Fed is going to act as underlying support.
The idea that stocks can rally while the economy is teetering on the brink of a recession is a very optimistic one. Furthermore, the technical conditions of the major indices are unambiguous. We have suffered a severe technical breakdown and are in a downtrend. We have much work to do before a healthy uptrend will emerge.
While a quick "V"-shaped recovery in the market would certainly make life easier, the fact that the economy is just beginning to show signs of slowing and that rescue attempts are ongoing and unlikely to have any real impact for many months is going to make a tough environment for stocks.
We need to embrace the fact that we have a struggling economy and a broken market. Things like that don't typically end easily and quickly. We need to be on guard and protect our precious capital while they play out and not let the overly optimistic push make us ignore the likelihood that the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better.
We have a weak start this morning, as yesterday's softness is triggering more profit-taking.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SPF +19.6%, NTCT +14.2%, YTEC +10.0%, TMA +9.2%, ILMN +8.6% (also upgraded to Buy at Canaccord Adams), NETM +6.9%, SVVS +6.4%, MTW +4.8%, CE +4.6%, GIB +4.1%, BMI +3.5%, CSC +3.5%, PRGO +3.4%, DTPI +2.6%, LVS +2.5%, WATG +1.9%, VSAT +1.3%, THOR +1.1%... Other news: GTCB +22.5% (announces ATryn meets primary endpoint), SVN +15.9% (to consider strategic alternatives), CXP +12.8% (Staples in talks to buy Corporate Express: Paper - Reuters), SVNT +5.3% (reports additional positive trial data for secondary endpoints from Puricase Phase 3 studies), HOT +4.8% (Investor group led by Sam Zell reports a 7.72% stake), COGO +3.3% (still checking), ACTU +3.1% (announces increase of existing stock repurchase program by over 50% for Q1 of FY08), FRX +2.6% (announces positive results of Memantine study of once-daily formulation), AGU +1.7% (up in sympathy with MOS and POT upgrades), SHFL +1.4% (announces plan to appeal Nevada District Court summary judgment), STX +1.3% (announces dividend increase to $0.12 from $0.10 and $2.5 bln share repurchase program)... Analyst upgrades: PHM +5.0% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), MDC +4.6% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), AMKR +3.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), ACTU +3.1% (upgraded to Strong Buy at JMP), GBX +3.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Bear Stearns), ZRAN +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), MOS +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), KBH +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), PBY +2.3% (upgraded to Mkt Weight at Thomas Weisel).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SIRF -41.6% (also multiple analyst downgrades), RMKR -25.2% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray), WOOF -19.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at Piper), ARMHY -15.0%, PFG -8.0%, AUTH -7.1%, SNCR -6.4%, AXS -5.0%, MLM -3.5%, SGTL -3.4%, NSM -3.3% (also downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James), SCUR -3.2%, PWAV -2.9%, UTR -2.9%, CATS -2.6%, YUM -2.3%, RMBS -2.1%, HHGP -1.7%, CBL -1.6% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), NYX -1.2%, ROCM -1.1%... Select European financials trading lower: CS -3.4%, UBS -3.0%, HBC -2.5%, BCS -2.1%, SLM -1.6%... Select mining stocks showing weakness: SWC -3.3%, AUY -2.8%, NEM -1.8%, HMY -1.6%, GFI -1.6%, BHP -1.4%, GLD -1.2%... Other news: PEG -49.9% (due to 2-for-1 stock split), ASMI -4.4% (still checking), ACH -4.3% (Australia may review Rio stake purchase - FT), NOK -3.7% and ERIC -3.2% (down in sympathy with NSM), GRMN -3.1% (down in sympathy with SIRF), TXN -2.6% (down in sympathy with NSM)... Analyst downgrades: BKS -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), EDS -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), NSC -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), GS -1.4% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), YHOO -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/5/2008 8:30 AM EST
Acceptance of what has happened is the first step to overcoming the consequences of any misfortune.
-- William James
After a strong bounce over the past week, the market pulled back on lighter volume yesterday. Although the technical conditions still support the proposition that we have seen nothing more than a countertrend bounce within a bear market, the conditions are still in place for a bit more upside in the near future.
What makes bounces like the one we experienced last week so dangerous is that they are often accompanied by the belief that the worst is over. The big hope among the bulls is that the fiscal stimulus plan and the Fed interest rate cuts are going to cure our economic problems and put the stock market in an upward trajectory.
The biggest hurdle to that happening is that we really have seen nothing to indicate that the economy is bottoming. In fact, the indications are that we are just starting to see evidence that a slowdown is at hand. The likelihood is that we are going to see poor economic stats of various sorts in the weeks and months ahead.
The bulls argue that although the economy is struggling, we now know the Fed is on our side and is prepared to battle those problems with more rate cuts in the months ahead. The logic is that even though we may go through a period of softness, stocks can rally from here because we can be confident that the Fed is going to act as underlying support.
The idea that stocks can rally while the economy is teetering on the brink of a recession is a very optimistic one. Furthermore, the technical conditions of the major indices are unambiguous. We have suffered a severe technical breakdown and are in a downtrend. We have much work to do before a healthy uptrend will emerge.
While a quick "V"-shaped recovery in the market would certainly make life easier, the fact that the economy is just beginning to show signs of slowing and that rescue attempts are ongoing and unlikely to have any real impact for many months is going to make a tough environment for stocks.
We need to embrace the fact that we have a struggling economy and a broken market. Things like that don't typically end easily and quickly. We need to be on guard and protect our precious capital while they play out and not let the overly optimistic push make us ignore the likelihood that the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better.
We have a weak start this morning, as yesterday's softness is triggering more profit-taking.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SPF +19.6%, NTCT +14.2%, YTEC +10.0%, TMA +9.2%, ILMN +8.6% (also upgraded to Buy at Canaccord Adams), NETM +6.9%, SVVS +6.4%, MTW +4.8%, CE +4.6%, GIB +4.1%, BMI +3.5%, CSC +3.5%, PRGO +3.4%, DTPI +2.6%, LVS +2.5%, WATG +1.9%, VSAT +1.3%, THOR +1.1%... Other news: GTCB +22.5% (announces ATryn meets primary endpoint), SVN +15.9% (to consider strategic alternatives), CXP +12.8% (Staples in talks to buy Corporate Express: Paper - Reuters), SVNT +5.3% (reports additional positive trial data for secondary endpoints from Puricase Phase 3 studies), HOT +4.8% (Investor group led by Sam Zell reports a 7.72% stake), COGO +3.3% (still checking), ACTU +3.1% (announces increase of existing stock repurchase program by over 50% for Q1 of FY08), FRX +2.6% (announces positive results of Memantine study of once-daily formulation), AGU +1.7% (up in sympathy with MOS and POT upgrades), SHFL +1.4% (announces plan to appeal Nevada District Court summary judgment), STX +1.3% (announces dividend increase to $0.12 from $0.10 and $2.5 bln share repurchase program)... Analyst upgrades: PHM +5.0% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), MDC +4.6% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), AMKR +3.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), ACTU +3.1% (upgraded to Strong Buy at JMP), GBX +3.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Bear Stearns), ZRAN +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), MOS +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), KBH +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), PBY +2.3% (upgraded to Mkt Weight at Thomas Weisel).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SIRF -41.6% (also multiple analyst downgrades), RMKR -25.2% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray), WOOF -19.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at Piper), ARMHY -15.0%, PFG -8.0%, AUTH -7.1%, SNCR -6.4%, AXS -5.0%, MLM -3.5%, SGTL -3.4%, NSM -3.3% (also downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James), SCUR -3.2%, PWAV -2.9%, UTR -2.9%, CATS -2.6%, YUM -2.3%, RMBS -2.1%, HHGP -1.7%, CBL -1.6% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), NYX -1.2%, ROCM -1.1%... Select European financials trading lower: CS -3.4%, UBS -3.0%, HBC -2.5%, BCS -2.1%, SLM -1.6%... Select mining stocks showing weakness: SWC -3.3%, AUY -2.8%, NEM -1.8%, HMY -1.6%, GFI -1.6%, BHP -1.4%, GLD -1.2%... Other news: PEG -49.9% (due to 2-for-1 stock split), ASMI -4.4% (still checking), ACH -4.3% (Australia may review Rio stake purchase - FT), NOK -3.7% and ERIC -3.2% (down in sympathy with NSM), GRMN -3.1% (down in sympathy with SIRF), TXN -2.6% (down in sympathy with NSM)... Analyst downgrades: BKS -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), EDS -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), NSC -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), GS -1.4% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), YHOO -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA).
momentum, siin. Tõenäoliselt avaldati ikka teadlikult varem.
Ma ei mõelnud datat ise. Ma mõtlesin selgitust ja põhjendust miks varem data avaldati.
Briefingus nii: The early, much worse than expected release on ISM took many by surprise, including economists. Chatter on the street was "that a representative of ISM mentioned the result inadvertently yesterday in a speech. That's why the released was moved up," says a well connected dealer.
Liiga pöörane!
Briefingus nii: The early, much worse than expected release on ISM took many by surprise, including economists. Chatter on the street was "that a representative of ISM mentioned the result inadvertently yesterday in a speech. That's why the released was moved up," says a well connected dealer.
Liiga pöörane!
Ok, lugesin su posti kiirustades. Aga pressikat ei leidnud ise ka.
Pressikat ei näinud, aga nägin infot et ISM ise kinnitab potentsiaalset infoleket eile õhtul ja seetõttu avaldasid data igaksjuhuks varem kell 08:55 USA aja järgi (10:00 oli õige avaldamise aeg). Päeva jooksul tuleb vist täpsemat infot veel. Kummaline igaljuhul.
Sigmat (SIGM) rõhub täna kõrge beeta ja SIRF :)
Kuigi Sigma ja Sirfi kiipide end-products alluvad samadele nõudlus-driveritele, asuvad need siiski erinevas elutsüklis.
ISM ütleb, et ei anna kohe välja täpsemaid kommentaare miks ISM varem tuli.
Ootan igaljuhul huviga.
Ootan igaljuhul huviga.
turg tuleb alla. ei tundu eriti asi enam jõnksutamisena.trend tundub ikkagi muutunud olevat.
Google (GOOG) on täna väga hästi püsinud, tõusul on käive olnud pea 3 korda suurem kui tavaliselt ning võrreldes mu teholoogiaga on liikumine aukartustäratav.Google võib olla ka üks nendest komponendidest, mis suudaksid turgu kõrgemale rebida Radaril tasuks hoida ka Apple (AAPL) ja Cisco (CSCO), viimane neist, teatab oma kvartalitulemused homme peale turgu, millest turg kindlasti püüab omad järeldused teha.
kole kole... enamus indekseid 2,3% miinuses....hakkab paanika mõõte võtma juba...
Merrill Lynch sees strong chance of inter-meeting rate cut by FOMC following ISM Services drop - Reuters
Google 500st läbiminek tekitab päris kindlasti täiendavat müügisurvet, saab olema huvitav, kas sealt tasemest mindakse nüüd juba järsult läbi või samamoodi pinda kraapides...
Paanikast on veel asi kaugel, aga me oleme ju karuturul, ei maksa seda unustada. Viimasel ajal ühtivad mõtted üha enam Jim Rogers'i nägemusega. Eelkõige USA majanduse osas, Fedi osas on Rogers eriti kriitiline, tema arvates tuleks näiteks intresse hoopis tõsta. Üks hiljutine Rogers'i intervjuu: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjLMAQiIRyU
Õigus Alvar, paanikat veel ei ole, aga selle hõngu on juba tunda :)
USD/JPY hakkab nokka üles tõstma, vaatab kas ka USA turg läheb kaasa...
USD/JPY hakkab nokka üles tõstma, vaatab kas ka USA turg läheb kaasa...
PHM kaupleb päeva alguse +5% järel juba mõnda aega miinuses, suurendan lühikest positsiooni.
USD/JPY jätkuvalt tugevnev...
Aga turg liigub väga ilusasti, ühtlaselt. See annab lootust, oluliselt rohkem, kui heitlik rapsimine.
Velikij: lootust millele - enesetappude arvu suurenemisele? :)
Velikij; Sul on arvuti tagurpidi ees! Keera ümber.