Börsipäev 5. august - Fedi päev

momentum - minu jaoks on sisukas see : )

'Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee.'

Ehk et siis ollakse ikkagi valmis intresse tõstma (eventually). Aga kui me siin mingit spike'i energias, toiduainetes, materjalides ei näe, siis enne novembrikuu presidendivalimisi veel mitte.
Kuid... see oleks ju tähendanud intressifutuuride põhjal tulevaste intressitõstmiste tõenöosuse suurenemist. Seekord aga tõenäosus vähenes. Statement on dovish. Mingi info andis selleks aluse. Mul on oma idee.
Cisco (CSCO) tulemused täitsa kenad ja aktsia viskav järelturul veel 3% lisa tänasele liikumisele.

Reports Q4 (Jul) earnings of $0.40 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.39; revenues rose 9.9% year/year to $10.36 bln vs the $10.31 bln consensus. "Cisco delivered solid quarterly and annual results as network-enabled business process changes and productivity increases gain traction on a global basis. Today's strong results demonstrate the company's ability to execute. The market is clearly in transition, and we will use this time as an opportunity to expand our share of customer spend and to aggressively move into market adjacencies. Our focus is on our portfolio approach to technology innovation, a broad global footprint, and management dedicated to sustainable differentiation and execution. We believe we are entering the next phase of the Internet as growth and productivity will center on collaboration enabled by networked Web 2.0 technologies."
Release Date: August 5, 2008
For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.

Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.

Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

2008 Monetary Policy Releases


Otsuse kohal hõljus paras event-risk lausa kolmehäälsest erimeelsusest (mis on haruldus mida pole nähtud alates 1992 aastast saati).
* Plosser - juba tuttav hawk. Ka varem vastu hääletanud.
* Fisher - juba tuttav hawk. Ka varem vastu hääletanud.
# Gary Stern - hiljuti teinud paraja retoorikanihke ja väljedanud teravamalt muret inflatsiooni üle. Oli piisavalt alust arvata, et Stern võib seekord vastu hääletada näidates sellega FEDi vabaturukomitee äärmiselt suurt ebakindlust inflatsiooniväljavaate osas. Valik hiljutisi headline:
Credit crunch in the US likely to last 'many months' - 28 jul. Eriti hea: "Headline inflation is rapid, too rapid,"
Fed's Stern: Inflation a concern, growth headwinds rising - 28 jul
Fed's Stern says don't wait to raise interest rates - 20 jul
TREASURIES-Bonds hit lows after Fed Stern's rate comments - 18 jul
Fed's Stern supports early rate hikes: Bloomberg - 18 jul

# Elizabeth Duke - äärmiselt väike risk, et oleks vastu häletanud. Kuid täna esimest korda hääletamas, vahetab välja hr Mishkini kes läheb tagasi tööle ülikooli.