Masinist,
Need korrigeerimised võivad olla mõlemale poole ja esialgsete andmetega on tegu viimase kolme kuu andmete puhul. Ehk siis 'lõplikud' andmed on olemas mai kohta ning juuni, juuli ja august on esialgsed. Kui augustis korrigeeriti töökohtade arvu kadumist möödunud kuudel suuremaks, siis näiteks juulis korrigeeriti väiksemaks.
Won't Get Fooled Again
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/4/2009 8:17 AM EDT
"The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true."
-- Robert Oppenheimer
Although the market has lost momentum and developed some technical cracks, lately, the big danger for market players is being too aggressively bearish. This market is very likely to contain still a few more surprises to the upside, and downside is unlikely to come quickly or smoothly.
There has seldom been a time when more folks have been rooting for a market pullback -- the bears for obvious reasons and the bulls because so many failed to embrace the stunning the rally that started back in March. This whole rally has been one of the most uncomfortable we have ever experienced, since so many market players were gun-shy after the worst market meltdown since the Great Depression. The market just kept going and going and never really allowed much time for market players to adjust to the idea that things might be improving.
It is not at all unusual for the market to make great legions uncomfortable, and, in this case, it has left a huge audience of folks who are feeling frustrated that they were too shy in the bullishness. Those who didn't quickly and aggressively jump on shallow dips had no choice but to chase the market or sit on the sidelines in frustration.
Now we are finally starting to see some more meaningful pullbacks, and these folks who missed out so much during the last few months are determined not to be left out again. They are going to continue to provide some consistent underlying support for this market. Dip buying has not failed to work for quite some time. We had a misstep on Tuesday, but buying weakness has been the way to go for a very long time now.
The great danger for the bears is that they count on these dip buyers going away too quickly. It is going to take some real disappointment to turn would-be dip buyers into frightened sideline sitters. These potential buyers are almost gleeful about the idea of some seasonal weakness that finally allows them to add long positions just in time for a resumption of the rally into the end of the year.
There are lots of fundamental reasons for this market to see more downside, and I think we eventually will, but don't look for it to come too fast. Respect the fact that there are so many dip buyers still out there who will be looking for opportunities to jump in. They aren't going to go away until they suffer some real pain, and that hasn't happened yet.
This morning, we have the monthly jobs report coming up, which should give us some insight into how market psychology is evolving. Lately, there has been a greater inclination to sell the news and lots of folks will be anticipating that response yet again. If we see sharp selling of good news that will help to confirm the idea that the character of the market is changing, however, it will also be a good test of those dip buyers if we see a poor response to the numbers.
To complicate matters a bit, we should have thin trading in front of the three-day weekend. Pre-holiday trading tends to have a bullish bias, which favors the dip buyers, so keep that in mind if we see initial weakness on the jobs numbers.
We'll see how the action looks after the numbers are out. I'm expecting some quick whipsaws, no matter what the numbers might be, but I'm not inclined to place any bets in front of the news.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ESL +5.9%, AMED +5.5%, NVLS +4.8%, ULTA +4.1%, ARST +3.0%... Select financial names showing modest strength: AIG +3.5%, FRE +3.1% (notified by NYSE that it has returned to compliance with the NYSE's minimum share price listing requirement), PUK +2.7%, HBC +2.5%, STD +2.1%, DB +2.0%, HIG +1.9%, CS +1.6%, RF +1.3%, LYG +1.2% (Lloyds could boldly give up aid - WSJ), BAC +1.0%... Select casino related names trading higher: MPEL +4.4%, MGM +1.4%... Select solar names showing strength: STP +2.4%, YGE +1.9%... Select China related names ticking higher: ACH +2.3%, CHL +2.0%, CHU +1.7%, SOHU +1.6%, CEO +1.0%... Other news: MTXX +9.8% (continued strength from yesterday's late day pop following chatter FDA reviewing new Zicam formula), LMNX +9.4% (receives 510(K) clearance for new cystic fibrosis test), SDTH +5.8% (acquires NPCC facility in Anhui Province, announces expansion plan), HGSI +4.6% (announces novel evidence-based systemic lupus erythematosus responder index described in peer reviewed publication as potentially significant advance in lupus drug development), SVA +4.4% (obtains initial order of H1N1 Vaccine from Chinese Central Government), DCTH +2.9% (entered into a lease with option to purchase with Fitzgerald Brothers Beverages), RTP +1.4% (China buys record iron ore at Rio's discount price - UK TimesOnline), PDE +1.2% (Seadrill discloses 9.5% stake in amended 13D; enters into forward contract to buy 8 mln shares)... Analyst comments: LTXC +28.4% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Needham).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ZQK -16.4%, COO -3.6%, HRB -2.4% (light volume)... Select gold related names modestly pulling back : AEM -2.0%, AUY -1.7%, AU -1.7%, GOLD -1.5%, GFI -1.5%, SLW -1.3%, KGC -1.0%... Other news: ARRY -35.2% (announces top-line results from rheumatoid arthritis Phase 2 trial; study did not meet the primary endpoint; also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Swann), MEDQ -13.2% (trading ex dividend), IPII -7.1% (disclosed previous financial statements should no longer be relied upon due to errors related to reclassification adjustments), ELN -6.8% (courts rules ELN has breached its Collaboration Agreement with Biogen Idec), IOC -4.8% (still checking), MOT -2.6% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: ANF -3.4% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), ZUMZ -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at KeyBanc Capital Mkts based on valuation).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/4/2009 8:17 AM EDT
"The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true."
-- Robert Oppenheimer
Although the market has lost momentum and developed some technical cracks, lately, the big danger for market players is being too aggressively bearish. This market is very likely to contain still a few more surprises to the upside, and downside is unlikely to come quickly or smoothly.
There has seldom been a time when more folks have been rooting for a market pullback -- the bears for obvious reasons and the bulls because so many failed to embrace the stunning the rally that started back in March. This whole rally has been one of the most uncomfortable we have ever experienced, since so many market players were gun-shy after the worst market meltdown since the Great Depression. The market just kept going and going and never really allowed much time for market players to adjust to the idea that things might be improving.
It is not at all unusual for the market to make great legions uncomfortable, and, in this case, it has left a huge audience of folks who are feeling frustrated that they were too shy in the bullishness. Those who didn't quickly and aggressively jump on shallow dips had no choice but to chase the market or sit on the sidelines in frustration.
Now we are finally starting to see some more meaningful pullbacks, and these folks who missed out so much during the last few months are determined not to be left out again. They are going to continue to provide some consistent underlying support for this market. Dip buying has not failed to work for quite some time. We had a misstep on Tuesday, but buying weakness has been the way to go for a very long time now.
The great danger for the bears is that they count on these dip buyers going away too quickly. It is going to take some real disappointment to turn would-be dip buyers into frightened sideline sitters. These potential buyers are almost gleeful about the idea of some seasonal weakness that finally allows them to add long positions just in time for a resumption of the rally into the end of the year.
There are lots of fundamental reasons for this market to see more downside, and I think we eventually will, but don't look for it to come too fast. Respect the fact that there are so many dip buyers still out there who will be looking for opportunities to jump in. They aren't going to go away until they suffer some real pain, and that hasn't happened yet.
This morning, we have the monthly jobs report coming up, which should give us some insight into how market psychology is evolving. Lately, there has been a greater inclination to sell the news and lots of folks will be anticipating that response yet again. If we see sharp selling of good news that will help to confirm the idea that the character of the market is changing, however, it will also be a good test of those dip buyers if we see a poor response to the numbers.
To complicate matters a bit, we should have thin trading in front of the three-day weekend. Pre-holiday trading tends to have a bullish bias, which favors the dip buyers, so keep that in mind if we see initial weakness on the jobs numbers.
We'll see how the action looks after the numbers are out. I'm expecting some quick whipsaws, no matter what the numbers might be, but I'm not inclined to place any bets in front of the news.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ESL +5.9%, AMED +5.5%, NVLS +4.8%, ULTA +4.1%, ARST +3.0%... Select financial names showing modest strength: AIG +3.5%, FRE +3.1% (notified by NYSE that it has returned to compliance with the NYSE's minimum share price listing requirement), PUK +2.7%, HBC +2.5%, STD +2.1%, DB +2.0%, HIG +1.9%, CS +1.6%, RF +1.3%, LYG +1.2% (Lloyds could boldly give up aid - WSJ), BAC +1.0%... Select casino related names trading higher: MPEL +4.4%, MGM +1.4%... Select solar names showing strength: STP +2.4%, YGE +1.9%... Select China related names ticking higher: ACH +2.3%, CHL +2.0%, CHU +1.7%, SOHU +1.6%, CEO +1.0%... Other news: MTXX +9.8% (continued strength from yesterday's late day pop following chatter FDA reviewing new Zicam formula), LMNX +9.4% (receives 510(K) clearance for new cystic fibrosis test), SDTH +5.8% (acquires NPCC facility in Anhui Province, announces expansion plan), HGSI +4.6% (announces novel evidence-based systemic lupus erythematosus responder index described in peer reviewed publication as potentially significant advance in lupus drug development), SVA +4.4% (obtains initial order of H1N1 Vaccine from Chinese Central Government), DCTH +2.9% (entered into a lease with option to purchase with Fitzgerald Brothers Beverages), RTP +1.4% (China buys record iron ore at Rio's discount price - UK TimesOnline), PDE +1.2% (Seadrill discloses 9.5% stake in amended 13D; enters into forward contract to buy 8 mln shares)... Analyst comments: LTXC +28.4% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Needham).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ZQK -16.4%, COO -3.6%, HRB -2.4% (light volume)... Select gold related names modestly pulling back : AEM -2.0%, AUY -1.7%, AU -1.7%, GOLD -1.5%, GFI -1.5%, SLW -1.3%, KGC -1.0%... Other news: ARRY -35.2% (announces top-line results from rheumatoid arthritis Phase 2 trial; study did not meet the primary endpoint; also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Swann), MEDQ -13.2% (trading ex dividend), IPII -7.1% (disclosed previous financial statements should no longer be relied upon due to errors related to reclassification adjustments), ELN -6.8% (courts rules ELN has breached its Collaboration Agreement with Biogen Idec), IOC -4.8% (still checking), MOT -2.6% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: ANF -3.4% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), ZUMZ -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at KeyBanc Capital Mkts based on valuation).
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1.12%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.75%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.09%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.23%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.98%
Venemaa MICEX -1.32%
Poola WIG +0.70%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.27%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.82%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.58%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.47%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.36%
Tai Set 50 +0.40%
India Sensex 30 +1.89%
Apple'ile poolehoidjaid juurde.
Apple target raised to $225 from $170 at Societe Generale
Apple target raised to $225 from $170 at Societe Generale
Päeva lõpp kiskus ikka päris koledaks :(
vaadates postituse kellaaega ei imesta, et lõpp päris koledaks kippus ;)
just-just, winston1984 :-))
Henno Viires Re: Börsipäev 4. september 04/09/09 09:56
Joel, igal S&P500 ja TNX korrelatsioon vahel on madal positiivne korrelatsioon - ca 0,32, mis ei anna küll alust väita, et tipud põhjad peaksid käsikäes käima, samas näiteks alates 2009. aasta algusest hoopis TNX põhi ja S&P500 tipp käinud käsikäes ja sama paistab olevat toimunud ka aastatel 2005 - 2007
Avastasin enda jaoks midagi huvitavat. Tundub, et on olemas mingi indikaator, millega mõõdetakse korrelatsiooni.
Mis nimeline see olla võiks? Või jookseb see number kusagil kaasas, kui võrdlusgraafikut kasutad?
Joel, igal S&P500 ja TNX korrelatsioon vahel on madal positiivne korrelatsioon - ca 0,32, mis ei anna küll alust väita, et tipud põhjad peaksid käsikäes käima, samas näiteks alates 2009. aasta algusest hoopis TNX põhi ja S&P500 tipp käinud käsikäes ja sama paistab olevat toimunud ka aastatel 2005 - 2007
Avastasin enda jaoks midagi huvitavat. Tundub, et on olemas mingi indikaator, millega mõõdetakse korrelatsiooni.
Mis nimeline see olla võiks? Või jookseb see number kusagil kaasas, kui võrdlusgraafikut kasutad?